Wind Power Market Update, Forecast

With 8,344 MW new wind power capacity on line, 2003 became another record year. A growth of annual installation of 15.5% was significantly higher than previous year, which had just 6% growth. The industry has shown an average growth of 26.3% over the past five years. The European market declined for the first time ever in 2003. The US market peaked with 1,687 MW new installations – almost four times the amount in 2002. Asia demonstrated a strong development, mainly driven by the markets in India and Japan. These are among the findings for 2003 in the latest World Market Update, released by BTM Consult ApS this March.

Ringkýbing, Denmark – March 29, 2004 [] Other key features of the report are… Market side – demand – The world’s cumulative installation passed 40,000 MW – The major share of new installation took place in the declining European market, with 66.5% of the total. Growth in Germany – the world’s largest market – dropped 17% to 2,674 MW of new installed capacity. – Development in Asia grew by some 60% over 2002. India and Japan were the leadingmarkets. – The Top 10 markets in the world were headed by Germany, USA, Spain and India. Newcomers to the Top 10 ranking were UK and Austria. The Austrian position at No. 5 was surprising. – The US market grew to 1,687 MW installed in 2003, after a modest 2002. The Americas cover 21.8% of new global installations in 2003. – Large utilities and energy companies are today the major players in the industry. Relatively few companies in US, Spain and Denmark operate, in total, around 25% of the world’s cumulative installation of wind power as of end 2003. – Penetration of wind power in the world’s electricity supply had reached nearly 0.5% by the end of 2003. Supply side The Top 10 suppliers in the world maintained their common position by supplying almost 95% of the 2003 installations worldwide. Other key findings in relation to the supply market are: – VESTAS Wind Systems (DK) maintained its position as No. 1 supplier, with a market share of 21.7%, followed by GE Wind Energy (US) with 18.0%. – The ranking of the five leading companies were: VESTAS (DK), GE Wind Energy (US), ENERCON (GE), GAMESA (ES) and NEG Micon (DK). – The highest relative growth in market share was performed by GE Wind Energy, advancing from fifth position in 2002 to this year’s No. 2 position. REpower (GE) and Mitsubishi (JP) also increased their market shares in 2003. – Danish manufacturers together lost market share from 43.5% to 38.5% in 2003. – Only three of the Top 10 suppliers increased their market share. All others lost shares compared to 2002. There were some 25 suppliers of wind turbines in the world. The 15 companies beyond the Top 10 shared 5.3% of the total market in 2003 Forecast 2004-2008 This year’s Forecast for the period up to 2008 indicates overall expansion, with an average growth rate of 10.4% per year. This growth is not, however, evenly distributed over the period. For 2004 a decline of 4% is expected – the first downturn since 1992. The market is expected to pick up again in 2005. The highest rate, 25%, is expected in the year 2007, due to takeoff for large scale offshore installation mainly in German waters. Total demand in the five year period is expected to be 55,300 MW. Europe will continue to be the leading continent. Offshore development in Europe will take off in large scale from 2007 (particularly in Germany and UK). The US forecast is uncertain and dependent on the extension of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) as well as other drivers. By end of the forecast period, 95,000 MW of capacity will be on-line (66,000 MW of this in Europe alone). Long term Prediction up to 2013 Improved economy of wind power technology and increased competitiveness will justify an improved growth beyond 2008. The major drivers beyond better economy will be the use of flexible mechanisms for cutting greenhouse gasses related to the Kyoto Protocol – which will then be in force – and an increase of electricity consumption. The Prediction to 2013 indicates an annual installation of 25,000 MW by 2013. Cumulative installation will grow to 194,000 MW, which will equal a penetration of wind power of over 2% of the world’s electricity consumption by 2013. The WMU 2003 report deals with other aspects of development as well, such as segmentation of the commercial markets by turbine and MW, as well as a listing of major operators/developers on demand side. The Special Theme in the World Market Update 2003 is a review of Wind Power Production Assessment – experiences, uncertainties, tools, etc.
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