Massachusetts, United States [RenewableEnergyWorld.com] China’s plans to reach 100 gigawatts (GW) of installed wind power generation capacity by 2020 are unlikely to be derailed by the current global financial crisis, according to a recent study of China’s wind power market from Emerging Energy Research (EER).
In a new assessment, China Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2008-2020, EER reports that despite inevitable slowdowns in markets elsewhere, China’s wind initiatives are so large in scale and so well supported by the government, that the country’s new renewable energy goals are likely be met well before the 2020 target.
“From planned projects to operational capacity, China is on track to become the single largest market for wind power by 2011. In just two years, China will account for more than 17% of the world’s installed wind generation capacity, financed by an investment of more than $20 billion,” said EER Wind Research Director Keith Hays about the report’s findings before a special briefing session sponsored by EER during the Global WindPower 2008 Conference & Exhibition in Beijing.
The study was completed following three months of in-market, primary research and interviews by EER’s Asia research team with dozens of Chinese independent power producers (IPPs), utilities, component and turbine manufacturers, and government and provincial ministries.As part of the study, three forecasts (conservative, baseline, and aggressive) for China’s wind market were developed, detailing wind energy capacity additions through 2020.
Despite the near-collapse of financial markets elsewhere and broad-based concern over the potential impact on funding for energy development projects, EER’s analysis sees China’s government wind energy priorities and the country’s ravenous energy demand as drivers that will keep China on track to surpass its target of a 15% renewable energy capacity by 2020.
Exhibit: EER Base-Case vs High-Growth and Low-Growth Scenarios, 2008-2020
Source: China Wind Power Markets and Strategies 2008-2020, Emerging Energy Research LLC