The share of utility-scale solar in the U.S. power generation mix will grow from 5% in 2024 to 7% in 2025 and to 8% in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its latest forecast.
This represents a 45% increase in the amount of U.S. solar generating capacity between 2024 and 2026, EIA said.
Conversely, the share of natural gas-fired generation is projected to fall from 43% in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and to 39% the following year. Wind stays relatively flat in 2025 at 11% but grows to 12% in 2026, according to the projections.
Coal supplied 16% of U.S. electricity in 2024 and is expected to stay relatively flat. Cold weather increased U.S. coal consumption last month, particularly in the Midcontinent and Mid-Atlantic regions that rely on coal for a significant portion of their power generation. The U.S. electric power sector consumed 7% more coal in January 2025 than in January 2024, EIA said.
As a result, the agency increased its coal consumption forecast for the sector, to 386 million short tons (MMst) in 2025, 4% more than 2024.
“More coal consumption this year is the result of our expectation of more U.S. power generation and higher average natural gas prices in 2025 than in 2024,” EIA said.
MORE: A collective ‘mountain of coal’ at U.S. plants, per report
On a related note, EIA is projecting U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to increase by 1% in 2025 and to decrease back to near-2024 levels by 2026.
In 2024, electricity generation from the U.S. electric power sector grew by 3%. Growing U.S. electricity demand from data centers, electrification and manufacturing, among other sources, will continue to drive overall generation, EIA said.
The agency expects U.S. power plants to generate about 4,240 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity in 2025, up 2% from 2024, with growth of another 1% in 2026.
If U.S. electricity generation grows in each of the next two years, it would mark the first three years of consecutive growth since 2005–2007, EIA said.
Originally published in Factor This Power Engineering.
