As renewable energy development accelerates, securing optimal sites for solar and wind projects is increasingly challenging in some U.S. regions. The number of suitable land parcels for renewable energy projects is “rapidly shrinking,” and developers who delay risk being left with fewer, less desirable options, according to a new analysis from Paces, a data and software provider.
The report, Illinois and New York Renewable Energy Site Selection Trends, explores the decline in viable sites in Illinois and New York and considers how these tendencies could significantly impact the future of renewable energy development. The data spans January 2024 through October 2024, with projections extending through June 2025.
Paces argues that the shrinking availability of suitable sites poses a significant challenge for renewable energy developers. As land availability becomes scarce, competition for optimal locations will increase, which can lead to higher costs and longer development timelines. Fewer suitable sites could also result in bottlenecks in the permitting process, especially in jurisdictions with more complex regulations.
In its analysis, Paces focused on the following variables:
- Number of suitable sites: Defined as parcels with +1 MW of feeder capacity and +15 buildable acres.
- Average site size (acres)
- Available feeder capacity
Across both Illinois and New York, Paces said the analysis reveals a “rapid” decline in the number of suitable sites for renewable energy development. In Illinois, the number of suitable sites decreased from 13,302 in January 2024 to 7,735 by October 2024, a 41.9% reduction. In New York, the number of available sites dropped from 6,908 in January 2024 to 6,245 by October 2024, a 9.6% reduction.
In addition to fewer suitable sites, the average acreage of available land is shrinking, forcing developers to scale down their projects or piece together multiple smaller parcels, the report said. In Illinois, the average site size fell from 51.0 acres in January 2024 to 45.2 acres by October 2024, an 11.37% decline. In New York, the average acreage decreased from 41.0 acres in January 2024 to 39.0 acres by October 2024, a 4.88% reduction.
The availability of feeder capacity – essential for the energy output of renewable energy sites – is also shrinking, further complicating site selection. In Illinois, the average feeder capacity declined from 3.03 MWs per site in January 2024 to 2.97 MWs by October 2024. In New York, the average feeder capacity dropped from 3.54 MWs in January 2024 to 3.33 MWs by October 2024.
Looking ahead, both markets are expected to see additional reductions in site availability and feeder capacity. In Illinois, the number of suitable sites is projected to drop to 5,981, with the average site size shrinking to 41.2 acres and feeder capacity falling to 2.8 MW per site. In New York, projections show the number of sites declining to 5,372, with feeder capacity dropping to 3.2 MW per site.
