California, United States — According to Solarbuzz photovoltaic (PV) market analysis, released this week, nine countries will deliver market sizes over 250 megawatt (MW) in 2010, up from six in 2009 including Germany, Italy, the United States, France, the Czech Republic, China, Japan and India.
In Europe, rapid growth in Italy, Czech Republic and France are expected to generate 3 gigawatts (GW) of demand in 2010. Germany will once again be the world’s largest market in 2010, but its vulnerability to two successive incentive tariff reductions in the next seven months will place growing emphasis on seeking out growth opportunities in other country markets over the next year, according to SolarBuzz.
The race is now on between Italy, Czech Republic, United States, and potentially even Japan, to become just the third country member of the elite club to install 1 GW of PV in a single year.
“Set against the weak European economic environment, the risk of future moderation of PV incentive policy around Europe will necessitate flexibility in corporate sales and marketing initiatives to handle changes in market mix,” said Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz.
Recent policy enhancements in Japan and the United States have set the ground work for significant growth in these already substantial markets. The complex policy environment in the United States is driven by Federal, State rebates, feed-in tariffs, tax incentives, net metering, grants and other short term funding through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
Solar companies are operating more vertical integration models in the strategic markets, either through equity interest or via partnering. The ability to access sources of project financing remains key to success in most of the major markets, SolarBuzz said.
Japanese module manufacturers are increasingly focused on their domestic market, able to access the utility net feed-in tariff and new residential incentives. Distribution channels in that country are becoming more diversified, with new entrants like Yamada Denki and Toshiba starting to make their presence felt.
PV project order books in China and India show that those two countries are well positioned to make a material contribution to global market growth over the next 2 years. Nearly 100 planned installations in China sum to an unrisked order book of 18.6 GW, while the Indian pipeline contributes a further 4.8 GW.
The three new reports, issued on June 22 by Solarbuzz, bring clarity to this complex sales and market environment. The Asia and Pacific Major PV Markets 2010, Europe PV Market 2010 and United States PV Market 2010 provide intense data and commercial insight to help resolve the market challenges and identify the future sales opportunities.