Over the years I’ve watched with keen interest the published information from the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) “less than 30 kW [kilowatt] Emerging Renewables Program.” It is a leading indicator of our industry’s impact, especially for small systems purchased by homeowners.
The CEC administers what is certainly the premier program in the U.S. The team at the CEC takes great care and effort keeping track of the data for solar installations they approve. They log photovoltaic (PV) and inverter manufacturer; the specific equipment sold; seller and installer; system size in watts; price, dates, installation location, utility; and other valuable information. Its last set of data reports installations applied for though August 2, 2006 — and is the basis of this study. After careful review of more than 25,000 approved installations, some clear trends emerged. Sales are accelerating and system sizes are getting larger, but the price installers charge — and the price consumers are paying — is on the rise. The rebate declines set in California Solar Initiative incentive schedule, and the higher-than-desired PV module prices, challenge our industry’s objectives of creating a sustainable, profitable business and reaching grid parity. Price increases may impact consumer demand. They will also impact the profitability of the developing installation industry, which the industry relies on to make the sales and deliver almost all the products we manufacture. I have used standard mathematical tools to create the lines and trend lines. Working with such a large population of data and for the Web, I had to simplify the presentation. Each line and trend line accurately represents the information presented, however my analysis technique will soften the trends somewhat, that is to say make the trends more conservative. Summary Views of the Program Results The tabulated data in Table 1 shows some program results by year. The sales results are impressive, especially in 2005 and 2006, considering PV supply constraints, upward price pressures and declining rebates. I was a little surprised to see how much the average system size was increasing, especially when both the average install price per watt and average consumer price per watt are increasing. Chart 1




