Note from the report authors: While there is reference in the below release to the unknown impacts of COVID-19 on projections, we wanted to acknowledge the toll the pandemic is having, and emphasize that projections may need to be revised as the wider effects of the crisis across our interconnected society become clearer.
The Solar Energy Industries Association
(SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie released its 2019 solar market insight report today with
numbers that show solar accounted for 40% of all new electric generating
capacity in the U.S. in 2019, its highest share ever and more than any other source
of electricity, with 13.3 gigawatts (GW) installed.
Despite policy challenges and a second year of the Section 201 tariffs, the
U.S. solar market grew by 23% from 2018, according to the report, which you can access here.
The residential solar sector
saw record-setting installation totals with more than 2.8 GW installed, led by
a record year in California and continued growth in emerging markets. The
segment saw annual growth of 15% while achieving its highest installation
volumes in history.
But emerging markets also deserve credit for this year’s record-breaking
installations as Florida installed the second most rooftop solar in the country
after California.
“With much of the residential solar market to-date driven by California and
Northeast states, Florida is a window into the future of the national
residential solar market given its resemblance to the vast swath of markets
with no state-wide incentive programs or the high electricity prices that make
rooftop solar so attractive,” said Austin Perea, Senior Analyst with Wood
Mackenzie.
Meanwhile, the utility-scale market added 8.4 GW of new capacity in 2019, more
than half of which came online in the fourth quarter. The 4.4 GW of utility PV
installed in the fourth quarter makes it the second-largest quarter in history
for the market. A total of 30.4 GW of new utility PV projects were announced in
2019, bringing the contracted pipeline to a record high of 48.1 GW.
In 2019, non-residential PV saw an annual decline of 7%, due largely to policy
reforms and interconnection delays in key states like California and
Massachusetts. A shrinking pipeline of community solar projects in Minnesota
also contributed to deployment declines, while community solar markets in New
York, Maryland, Illinois and New Jersey are expected to grow going
forward.
The emergence of Texas and Florida as top solar states, along with strong years
in established markets like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, helped drive
solid growth in 2019 across all segments.
Looking ahead, projections tempered by pandemic
SEIA and Wood Mackenzie are closely monitoring changes to the industry as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the release of this publication, the full impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the solar industry are still developing.
Abigail Ross Hopper, president
and CEO of SEIA remarked, “We know anecdotally that the COVID-19 pandemic
is affecting delivery schedules and our ability to meet project completion
deadlines based partly on new labor shortages. This once again is testing our
industry’s resilience, but we believe, over the long run, we are well
positioned to outcompete incumbent generators in the Solar+ Decade and to
continue growing our market share.”
Given the dynamic nature of the outbreak, it is too early to incorporate any
changes into our outlooks with enough certainty. Wood Mackenzie’s solar team is
tracking industry changes closely as they relate to solar equipment supply
chains, component pricing and project development timelines, and our
organizations will issue follow-up reports on the impacts of the pandemic.
According to the report, total
installed PV capacity in the U.S. was projected to rise by 47% in 2020, with
nearly 20 GW of new installations expected by the end of the year. Each of the
next two years were expected to be the largest on record for the U.S. solar
industry.
More key findings from the report include:
- In 2019, the U.S. solar market installed 13.3 GW of solar PV, a 23% increase from 2018.
- Cumulative operating PV capacity in the U.S. now exceeds 76 GW, up from just 1 GW at the end of 2009.
- The U.S. saw record-setting residential solar capacity added in 2019 with more than 2.8 GW installed.
- The contracted utility PV pipeline grew to a record high of 48.1 GW in 2019.
- Community solar continues to expand its geographic diversification, with the sub-segment seeing its third consecutive year of more than 500 MW installed.
