Even with a plan in place to clear the PJM Interconnection queue, states are at risk of missing their renewable energy targets without further action, according to a new report.
The National Resources Defense Council forecasts that PJM’s current plan to reform its interconnection process and clear a backlog of applications would only allow states to “barely” meet their renewable portfolio standard obligations through 2027.
The reforms are “very unlikely” to meet total regional demand for new renewable generation through 2030, the report found.
“Without changes to its queue processing pace, PJM will likely force states to fall short of state renewable targets, even after the reforms it approved last year,” said Dana Ammann, policy analyst at NRDC and the report’s lead author.
The report predicts that without imports states with an RPS will fall short of associated requirements through 2025. In 2028, renewables will reach only around two-thirds of the total renewable potential under the Inflation Reduction Act as projected by the Princeton Net ZERO Lab.
PJM’s interconnection reform plan, which was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last year, transitions the grid operator from a serial study process to a cluster method.
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In order to first clear its existing backlog of 200 GW of renewable energy projects, equivalent to the total installed capacity of renewable energy resources in the U.S. in 2021, PJM expects the new process to take effect in 2026.
The NRDC report suggests the delay to implementing PJM’s new interconnection process is likely to have a “significant impact on available renewables during those years and the years that immediately follow.”
“Ultimately, states without adequate resources already in the interconnection queue to meet near-term demand may be forced to delay goals, procure energy from other sources, or find other creative means to meet their RPS,” the authors wrote.
PJM is a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia.
In mid-May, PJM said that under “anticipated conditions” sufficient supply exists to meet summer electricity needs for the 65 million people it serves. PJM projected a non-diversified peak demand at around 156,000 MW. It said it has performed reliability studies at loads nearing 163,000 MW.
PJM has more than 186,000 MW of installed generating capacity available, with resources available in reserve to cover what it said are “historically observed” summer generation outage scenarios.
