Five predictions for PV solar

The rise of PPA, vertical integration, and India as a production hub, all while the value chain narrows — these are among the top trends to watch in the global PV solar sector over the next several years, according to Gartner.

January 11, 2009 – The rise of PPA, vertical integration, and India as a production hub, all while the value chain narrows — these are among the top trends to watch in the global PV solar sector over the next several years, according to Gartner.

Right now, the PV solar industry is struggling to emerge from its first major downturn, with a severe oversupply of PV products and materials and too many vendors clamoring for business, and a continued deep reliance upon government subsidies, notes Gartner analyst James Hines. Vendors need to figure out specific strategies to address the growing US and Chinese markets (Germany is still the largest PV market). On the other side of this downturn, the PV industry will emerge looking much different, Hines writes.

Among his predictions:

– Consolidation throughout the PV value chain will accelerate through 2010.
– By 2012, power purchase agreements (PPA) will be the dominant acquisition model for PV solar energy in North America.
– By 2013, 50% of major solar PV companies will have adopted a vertically integrated business model.
– By 2013, US electric utilities will restrict use of private distributed PV generation systems.
– By 2013, India will supply nearly 40% of its own domestic solar PV demand.

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