With an unprecedented imbalance between supply and demand for transformers, an NREL team is leading an effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Electricity and Office of Policy to quantify the long-term demand for distribution transformers.
NREL has completed the first phase of the study that quantified the number, capacity, age, and use of the nation’s current transformer stock — something it says has never been done before. Most of the nation’s transformers are owned by over 3,000 distribution utilities across the country, which NREL said added some complexity to quantifying them.
Based on the transformer data collected, NREL estimates distribution transformer supply may need to increase 160%–260% by 2050 compared to 2021 levels to meet residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation energy demands. NREL says The demand increase is largely driven by aging transformers and electrification. NREL is also examining potential demand increases from extreme weather events and utility undergrounding and resilience programs that use various types of transformers.
“Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researcher Killian McKenna said. “But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything.”
This analysis is based on estimating the peak demand that would need to be met by distribution transformers, which considers the increased electricity demand across the economy from scenarios outlined in NREL’s Electrification Futures Study.
“A lot of factors can drive the demand for transformers, which makes long-term forecasting especially challenging,” McKenna said. “For instance, load growth from electrification of buildings and transportation, increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, and the need to modernize aging electrical infrastructure can all impact the future demand for transformers.”
NREL also identified increasing demand for step-up transformers, which are used to integrate wind and solar farms onto the power grid.
DOE has charged NREL with developing additional analysis capabilities to assess future transformer demand, including an examination of load growth, new customers, replacement needs, and resilience investments. DOE will then share this analysis with stakeholders.
