By Keaton Horner, Vice President of Renewables, Orennia

The largest wind project in the Western Hemisphere and in US history recently got a big win. Last month, the SunZia Transmission project received unanimous approval from the Arizona Corporation Commission, while the SunZia Wind Project received two separate approvals from the New Mexico Public Regulatory Commission. The SunZia duo of wind and transmission projects comprise the largest renewable energy infrastructure project in the country’s history with a total investment of more than $8 billion and enough energy to power the needs of more than 3 million Americans. Set to begin construction in 2023, this initiative represents a significant milestone in the clean energy space.

Good news, right? Not so fast.

Although a privately funded project, its realization has involved cooperation from 10 federal agencies, five state agencies and nine local authorities, as well as stakeholders at the local, state and national levels. Additional approvals are still pending. Once wind-generated electricity begins flowing across the 550-mile transmission line in 2025, development of this project will have been about 17 years in the making. As the first major project of its kind and scope, the SunZia Wind and Transmission Project has completed a Herculean task from which the clean energy industry can note some hard-earned lessons and apply them to upcoming renewable energy projects. Here are some important takeaways from the evolution of this pioneering project and how they apply to the current state of the US clean energy transition.

We can relish in this project’s success, but we need many, many more of these types of projects every year for the next 20 years. A 17-year development timeline is unsustainable, and renewable generation depends on policy addressing the speed at which transmission expansion occurs.

Only when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining

The years 2020 and 2021 saw an uptick in new utility-scale land-based wind generation capacity, representing a $44 billion investment in new wind. However, increased capacity doesn’t automatically translate into people using wind power in their homes. Certain locations on the current grid are becoming somewhat saturated with this intermittent renewable generation, and it’s getting increasingly more challenging to manage. More of these wind and solar projects are being curtailed. Their power generation is ultimately limited to times when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. SunZia Wind’s mission of providing power from central New Mexico to more than 3 million residents of central Arizona requires 500 plus miles of transmission lines. Power generation without transmission is an incomplete recipe for clean energy.

Wind capacity has outpaced transmission capability

The installation of transmission lines has proven a contentious issue across the country, due to clashing environmental and local community interests. NIMBY (not-in-my-backyard) syndrome proves to be quite effective at slowing down or blocking large, multi-jurisdictional infrastructure projects. However, significant generation of solar and wind energy works only in sparsely populated, less at-risk areas, so the power must be transported to distant cities where the demand resides. These transmission projects, essential to the clean energy transition, are significant infrastructure projects that often meet resistance in terms of securing the planning or easement rights needed to build them. Rival interests in Maine have been debating the construction of transmission lines to connect Canadian hydropower to New England consumers. Even the SunZia Transmission route had to be amended in 2015 to satisfy concerns from the US Department of Defense and White Sands Missile Range. We have arrived at a challenging crossroad in which the rate of development of renewables has essentially outpaced the rate at which new transmission projects can keep up. This is a moment of self-reflection for the renewable energy industry to not just think about developments, but equally important, transmission.

A big obstacle to decarbonization of our grids

The greenlit SunZia Transmission Project represents a momentous step forward in delivering 3.5 GW of clean power to millions in central Arizona. Such achievements need to become commonplace to keep pace with numerous new wind and solar generation projects. For example, right now, a 500 MW solar facility could easily be erected on a piece of remote, inexpensive land – and become operational in four or five years – if there weren’t so many impediments to transmission projects. The incredible strides that private industry and public policy have made in incentivizing the huge development of solar and wind projects is being hampered by NIMBYism. If we turn our focus more toward winning hearts and minds for transmission projects, then that will make possible game-changing generation projects that will help us decarbonize our power infrastructure. If we can communicate the benefits available to the people affected by a transmission infrastructure project, we can break through to the next phase of decarbonization. The SunZia Wind and Transmission Project promises to deliver over $1 billion in estimated direct economic benefits to governments, communities, schools and private landowners across Arizona and New Mexico, while creating more than 2,000 construction jobs and up to 150 permanent jobs.

Battery storage is an essential component of a clean power grid

Fortunately, massive transmission projects are not the only way to move clean power to where demand lies. There can potentially be projects that have great resource quality, but they are not necessarily coming online at a controllable time. Battery storage represents a less intrusive “non-wires alternative” in shifting the load. Battery storage is an essential component of a power grid strategy, since the generation of excess energy can cause waste and surges. Batteries can work to store excess clean energy as demand fluctuates. Both have advantages and drawbacks, as transmission lines are a goliath undertaking with much NIMBY resistance while forecasting the long-term battery storage revenue opportunities is challenging and opaque. Regulators and other stakeholders should endeavor to solve both issues in clearing roadblocks to transitioning to clean grids.

We need to pair renewable generators with either transmitting resources or storage resources to then ultimately meet power demand and make strides toward decarbonization. We predict just as much money will be spent on the grid and battery storage as will be spent on renewable generation alone over the next five years. We will need both transmission infrastructure, like the SunZia project, as well as a significant amount of battery storage to address the same issue.

SunZia’s success blazes a trail for others to learn from

The SunZia project highlights both the potential for significant growth in the clean energy space in the US, as well as the need for greater energy transmission and battery storage solutions to truly accelerate the energy transition. The most impactful antidote for NIMBYism will be the successful results that come from the SunZia project in the years to come. Its transmission portion will fundamentally change power markets in the southwestern communities it serves. While the project is a watershed moment demonstrating that it can be done, it also provides a playbook for how not to execute a clean energy project, since an almost 20-year process is not viable. Policymakers and other private and public sector leaders will need to resolve some thorny issues if we are to see more projects like SunZia come to fruition quicker – and if our nation is to meet the goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035 set forth by President Joe Biden in May. 

About the Author

Keaton Horner is Orennia’s vice president for renewables. In this role he manages the analytics team and guides its focus on wind, solar and energy storage. Prior to joining Orennia, Keaton worked on the development of RS Energy Group’s (now Enverus) macro and international products, with a focus on technical and financial analysis for corporate and institutional clients.