How to minimize cascading event probabilities

Matthew H. Tackett, P.E., Tackett Electric Company, Inc.

Cascading events can generally be traced to transient system disturbances, improperly managed transmission congestion, generation deficiencies or cyber attacks. Regulatory, operational and planning reforms are required to minimize the probability of future occurrences.

Regulatory reforms

Regulatory reforms must focus on providing transmission asset owners with incentives to make reliability a top priority and an industry structure that promotes the efficient, effective and reliable management of the interconnected grids.

First of all, in my opinion, the transmission industry should be completely unbundled and regulated solely by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). This will allow for more regulatory focus to be placed on the needs of the overall interconnected grids, streamline the permitting process for expansion and reduce the impact of the NIMBY phenomenon. Performance based cost-of-service regulation (PBR) should be established to provide transmission asset owners with reduced investment risk and incentives to maximize reliability via appropriate expansion and maintenance programs. PBR incentives and penalties should be based on such performance indices as the frequency of component failures and forced outages, as well as the average duration of planned maintenance outages. The authority to permit and site new transmission facilities should be completely shifted from individual state regulatory commissions to the FERC.

The transmission regulatory structure should be based on a “reliability bargain” between generation merchants and the interconnected grids. The reliability bargain should allow for full funding of the transmission system solely by end-use consumers via levelized rates. Transmission revenue should be collected by a central clearinghouse established for each interconnected grid and then redistributed to transmission asset owners based on their individual revenue requirements and overall performance levels. This provides “free access” to the grid for generators and merchants.

In return for free access, all wholesale transmission service (point-to-point and network) should be non-firm, uniform and subject to the real-time state of the interconnected grid. That is, grid operating organizations should have the full authority to take any and all measures necessary to manage congestion and address transient system disturbances in the simplest and most direct manner. Specifically, the curtailment of point-to-point transmission schedules, the redispatch of generation facilities internal to a control area and/or the curtailment of load would not be subject to the terms and conditions of any specific transmission arrangement, but instead on the course of action that best supports reliability.

Operational reforms

Operational reforms must focus on functional consolidation and the establishment of standardized, large and contiguous regional operating and planning organizations with clearly defined responsibilities and authorities. These organizations, which will be referred to as regional operating and planning authorities (ROPAs), may be regional transmission organizations (RTOs), independent system operators (ISOs) or individual utilities, but their mission and characteristics must be standardized and clearly defined.

As the grid operator, all of the coordination functions identified by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) should be consolidated into the ROPA. That is, the ROPA should serve as the control area (balancing and interchange authority), the transmission service provider and the security coordinator. The increased level of functional coordination provided by this consolidation allows for efficient, effective and timely management of grid reliability.

The ROPA should own and operate the energy management system (EMS) that controls all generation and transmission facilities within their region of authority. The ROPA should have full approval authority over all non-emergency transmission switching, planned generation and transmission outages, and unit commitment decisions. Furthermore, the ROPA should have immediate override authority over all other entities for the purpose of managing congestion and addressing transient disturbances in the most effective and timely manner possible.

Planning reforms

Planning reforms must focus on planning authority, future generation uncertainty, expanded analysis of the grid and dynamic planning standards that are focused on targeted reliability levels.

As the grid planner, the ROPA should be responsible for performing all short-term and long-term planning functions. The ROPA should have the authority to order specific transmission asset owners to expand their systems as necessary subject only to the approval of the FERC.

Transmission planning methods must be modified to better address the uncertainty of future generation installations. This will require expanded use of probabilistic planning methods. Furthermore, ROPAs must be given the authority to disperse new generation installations throughout the grid in a reliable manner via final approval authority over new generation interconnections.

Transmission planners should expand their efforts to focus on problem areas that may not have been previously addressed, and should use more detailed models and more sophisticated simulation tools.

Finally, the transmission planning standards established by NERC need to be focused on achieving targeted reliability levels. This will require the use of more dynamic standards coupled with a risk assessment methodology that is probability-based. Once acceptable occurrence rates are established for events such as an uncontrolled cascading outage, planning efforts should focus on achieving these targeted reliability levels in the most cost effective manner possible.

On a final note, enforcement authority must be given to NERC to ensure that all entities involved with the interconnected grids are complying with all operating and planning reliability standards.

Tackett is president of Tackett Electric Company, provider of consulting, software, and other technology-based solutions focused on power delivery reliability and deregulation. Contact Tackett at 804-639-3955 or via e-mail to [email protected].

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