A new report issued by the American Public Power Association (APPA) analyzes trends in electrification and identifies hurdles that need to be overcome to realize wider adoption of electrification.

The report, which was prepared by Paul Zummo, Director for Research and Development at APPA, said that the electrification of end-use technologies, such as electric space and water heating as well as electric vehicles (EVs), offers benefits to the environment and consumers including lowering carbon emissions and long-term fuel savings. In addition, overall monthly energy costs are lower for households that are fully electrified.

For example in a Commonwealth Edison pilot study, an all-electric multifamily unit’s construction costs were $214 per square foot, as opposed to $178 per square foot for one built according to ENERGY STAR standards. However, the all-electric property reduced the delivered energy requirement for space heating by 76% and total annual energy costs by 19%.

Overall, the upfront cost to switch fuels is a hurdle, according to the report.

The authors cited another recent report that said to fully electrify all home heating and cooking appliances would require replacing 80 million appliances in 50 million homes. The net energy savings are estimated to be $27 billion per year, but the cost of federal incentives to make this transition would be $8.8 billion to $26.5 billion per year over the next decade.

Other potential challenges, according to the report include: electrified space heating is still generally more efficient in warmer climates than colder climates, up-front prices for many EV models are higher than for traditional transportation, and the overall cost of converting to electrified end uses may be prohibitive for many customers.

Costs, Supply Chain and the Grid

The second part of the report focuses on the future of electrification and identifies hurdles that need to be overcome to realize wider adoption of electrification.

These three factors are: the cost of transitioning energy resources to electric, potential (and existing) supply chain constraints associated with the materials needed for batteries, and limitations of the existing electric grid, both in terms of wires and generating capacity.

In terms of grid upgrade costs, the report says that smarter energy use through demand response, load flexibility and smart charging will be necessary but:

Even if load is distributed more evenly throughout the day, there will need to be major upgrades to both the distribution and transmission grids. The National Academy of Sciences estimates that $2.1 trillion in capital investments will be needed just by 2030 to put the United States on a path to a near-zero-emission economy. Of that total, a significant amount will be needed to accommodate increased electricity load due to EVs and space heating.

APPA said the purpose of the report is to draw out and amplify these barriers to adoption and discuss potential approaches to ameliorating them.

Today’s numbers (from the report):

• Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and fully electric cars accounted for approximately 11% of light-duty vehicle sales in the fourth quarter of 2021, with EVs alone accounting for 3.4% of light-duty vehicle sales.
• In 1950, less than 1% of all homes in the United States used electricity as the primary source of heating. By 2000, that had increased to over 30%, and today nearly 40% of homes are primarily heated by electric sources.