The El Niño phase across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is persisting as forecast. Sea-surface temperatures continue to run warmer than average throughout the eastern and central Pacific Ocean by between 1 to 3 degrees.
The latest long-range climate models indicate that there is about an 80% to 90% chance of this El Niño remaining in place through next spring with some weakening beginning after that. Needless to say, it looks as if this El Niño will play a big role in influencing temperatures across the United States during the upcoming winter.
With that in mind, slightly above normal temperatures are projected across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains. There are some indications that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) may become positive for at least part of December.
As a result, parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest have also been forecast to have slightly above-normal temperatures in December. These regions of the country are predicted to have a deficit of monthly heating degree days of between 30 and 90.
Also, energy costs with respect to heating may be somewhat lower than average. Much of the southern United States as well as the Great Basin and south-central Rockies are expected to see temperatures average closer to normal during the month of December.
