Sue Ellen Haupt of the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the speakers at GPC’s Wind O&M event; Optimizing Wind Power Performance which takes place on 27-28 September in Chicago.
What are the biggest short term challenges operators face?
To effectively integrate wind energy into the power grid, operators must have access to good short- to medium-term forecasts of their projected power output. This is important for both optimizing the economics of day-ahead trading and for assuring reliability and stability of the electric grid. To get such a power forecast requires a number of components, including numerical weather prediction model simulations, statistical post-processing, and add-on systems to use real-time observations to enhance system performance.
What are key technological barriers need to be overcome?
Due to the variability of the wind resource, it is very difficult to accurately predict wind power output. The wind energy varies on time scales from seconds to decades and beyond. Due to the complexity of the atmospheric fluid dynamic system, this variability is difficult to predict accurately. Current on-going research is raising the bar of state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.
What do you think are the most exciting developments in forecasting at the moment?
In addition to improving forecasting capability, wind power forecasting systems are now including estimates of the uncertainty to provide more information to the operators in optimizing system performance. By providing flow-dependent error bars on the estimated power output, we are allowing operators to make better decisions. In addition, forecasts of short term power changes (ramps) are improving. When the operators know in advance that such ramps are likely, they can adjust accordingly.
At the event, Sue Ellen will talk about:
Understanding Meteorological Variability and How it Affects Grid Integration
• Variability in meteorology and the way it affects wind farm operation
• Modelling variability
• Value of Wind Power forecasting
• Point forecasts versus regional forecasts
• The need for forecast systems to include multiple approaches
• Case studies of ramp events
Optimizing Wind Power Performance is the key US O&M forum designed to bring wind plant operators and owners together with technical experts and solution providers to share best preactice insight into how business models will change in the post-warranty era, how the OSHA regulations will change the way manitenenance crews work and how companies can avoid the “run to destruction” mind-set yet still reduce costs as they keep turbines at peak performance.
Early bird discounts of $200 expire on the 16th August, so book today to secure your place.