Hotter summers with temperatures that exceed the design limits of equipment like transformers and conductors and that boost HVAC loads to historically unprecedented system peaks; winter icing that leads to higher incidents of widespread outages; and increased vegetation density that endangers T&D infrastructure are some of the risks that could impact Chicago-based ComEd in the coming years.
The utility, along with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory’s Center for Climate Resilience and Decision Science, released the first phase of a Climate Risk and Adaptation Study. The work is part of ComEd’s effort to understand the impacts of climate change on its power grid and operations and begin to devise strategies to adapt.
Severe and destructive weather caused by climate change is already impacting the utility’s service area, which includes northern Illinois and Chicago, said CEO Gil Quiniones. The study offers a preview of what’s to come, including what he said would be “warmer, more humid conditions that will pose new challenges to the power grid.”
Quiniones said the utility will use localized climate data from the study to plan future grid investments to ensure reliability even in the face of “more severe weather and increased demand due to decarbonization.”
Argonne’s analysis showed that projected mid-century climate conditions for ComEd’s service territory are likely to be substantially warmer during all seasons and more humid than historical conditions.
In particular, the area is expected to experience more intense and prolonged summer heatwaves, amplified by higher humidity. Measures of seasonal energy demand point to growth in demand for cooling, particularly during summer, late spring and early fall.
The study also highlighted the importance of accounting for the combined effects of climate change and electrification. For example, electric vehicles may add new load to summer peaks and electric heat pumps may shift peak electrical use into the winter.
Adaptations
Given expected climate impacts, Argonne offered several adaptation options for the ComEd grid. Recommendations included revising design and construction standards to ensure ComEd equipment can withstand future climate conditions; adjusting vegetation management practices and standards to prevent more frequent contact with power lines; and increasing energy efficiency programs to ease projected stress on the grid.
A second phase of the study is slated to start in 2023. It is expected to examine the impacts to flood risk and convection, a weather phenomenon that causes severe storms with high winds and tornadoes.
The work between ComEd and Argonne builds on what they said are established climate science and industry best practices. Argonne’s analysis is expected to help ComEd select the most effective and efficient methods for adapting to these impacts.
