Contributed by Lucas Finco, adjunct professor, NYU SPS Certificate Program in Clean Energy
Every semester I discuss with my students the tasks that remain in the clean energy transition that they can work on to build successful careers in clean energy. I have decided to publish these items annually and share my views on what we still need to accomplish to ensure a sustainable energy future for humankind.
So, without further ado, here is my wish list for the clean energy transition for 2025:
1. Still more deployment of onshore wind, solar, storage, and transmission lines
Great strides were made in 2024 in all areas, which was great to see. But we still need more deployment in the years to come.
2. A global turn downward in fossil fuel usage
Global oil growth forecasts were downgraded all year long, but still remain slightly positive. Natural gas and coal usage globally continue to grow in strong fashion. Developed countries have seen significant declines in their CO2 emissions, but that is not true globally. Before we can decrease fossil fuel consumption, we must stop the growth in their use. However, some recent comments from O&G majors about declining investments in exploration, driven by economics, are providing hope that declining future supplies are responding to declining future demands.
3. More deployment of smart grid
The promise of smarter electric grids that can move power in very dynamic ways still lies somewhere off in the future. A smarter, more flexible grid will be necessary at some point as a larger percentage of generation is provided by clean and/or distributed energy sources.
4. More innovation and lower costs of storage
Storage remains the kingpin of the clean energy transition. Costs per kW/kWh still need to come down to get the deployment we need. Any innovation, like sodium batteries currently being deployed in China, is welcome! I believe there is much more to be gained through R&D investments in energy storage.
5. Market-based solutions over state interventions
I continue to believe that market-based solutions will work better than one-off interventions. Things like temporary tax credits, one-off grants, or limited-time, low-interest loans only distort the market and can cause swings in demand. Permanent changes to the marketplace that provide transparency and clarity are always preferable to temporary assistance. More clarity on the future of NEM is also welcome!
6. Come face to face with intermittency, reliability, and curtailment
This will probably remain my wish for a long time, but we as a society need to come to terms with these challenges. A clean energy electric grid will come with the complications of renewable generation, and mitigating strategies do exist. We need to be looking at this squarely in the face. (See the duck curve point below.)
7. Interconnection approval times need to come down
Interconnection queues need to be cleared and exiting clean energy project proposals implemented.
8. Focus on sustainability
“Clean” and “green” energy are loose terms that have been diluted by their various uses. Sustainability remains a reliable principle to follow. Ask yourself, “Can this activity be sustained forever?” If not, don’t do it. Clean energy resources need to follow sustainable practices and plan for end-of-life and recyclability. Otherwise, we just create more problems that will need to be addressed in the future.
9. Address increasing demand for electricity
2024 highlighted the increasing demand for electricity for EVs, data centers, and building electrification. As an industry, we were caught off guard by AI-driven data center demand, and we need to circle back and realize old projections were too low and push for more grid expansion on all fronts.
10. Smart appliances
How is it that we still lack smart appliances? All appliances should have scheduling, Wi-Fi, and energy price displays, not just the most expensive ones. It should be standard on all high-energy appliances. Will 2025 be the year?
No longer on the wish list
Distributed vs. centralized energy: This debate appears to be settled for now, and the grid is here to stay. For now and in the near future, going off-grid is not really feasible for most people.
Revitalize US nuclear power: Vogtle Unit 3 began operations in July 2023 and Unit 4 in April 2024. New nuclear repowering deals were announced to provide low-carbon power for data centers. Innovations continue in new reactor design and size, and in fusion reactors.
Flat rate electric distribution: CA regulators pushed through flat rate distribution charges in May 2024, a big step forward in simplifying electric bills through more direct cost causation. This easy-to-understand charge will make it easier for consumers to make decisions about energy investments. All states should adopt a flat rate for distribution charges.
Hit net zero load on the duck curve: CA hit a net negative load in 2023 and had even more hours of net negative load in 2024. More states will face this issue in the future. More transmission and storage will be needed.
Government support for clean energy that rivals the support for O&G: The IRA provided a lot of support for the clean energy transition, but more can be done here.
Clean energy investments exceed fossil fuel investments: Globally, this switched around 2020 according to IEA.
One reminder…
I’d also like to remind us all that the energy transition is not going to be easy. Hard work, perseverance, and a strong strategy are needed to make it work. Reductions in CO2 emissions are needed now more than ever. Global warming is finally rearing its ugly head, and the coming years will present more challenges on that front. It is our planet and our responsibility to manage it.
(No AI or LLM was used in the writing of this article. No permissions are given for the use of this article in the training of future AI/LLMs.)
Lucas Finco is principal consultant at his firm StrateGain, where he works at the intersection of energy and AI. He teaches energy analysis in NYU’s Certificate in Clean Energy program. He also works as an advisor for startups and investors and is a former podcast host.
