
Contributed by Dr. Matthew Slavin, Founder and CEO, Net Zero Grant Writing
As someone deeply involved in navigating federal grants funded by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) I’m often asked about the implications of a second Trump presidency on these funding sources.
Former President Trump has been vocal about his opposition to clean energy, suggesting that a second term could see him dismantling the IRA. He has pledged to gut federal support for EVs and wind energy if oil and gas executives contribute $1 billion to his campaign. Project 2025, the 900-page blueprint drafted by loyalists likely to staff a second Trump administration, outlines plans to eviscerate federal climate policy and defund much of USDOE, which is crucial to the IRA’s implementation.
The alarm bells are ringing, but the reality of rolling back the IRA may be more complex than it appears, due to both economic and political factors. Here’s why:
Economic
If not to the degree that the American Care Act – not an unfair comparison given the transformative potential of the IRA – the IRA is now both deeply embedded in critical sectors of the American economy and popular. As a writer of IRA grant proposals sometimes valued in the tens of millions, I can attest to the popularity of IRA grants for everything from rooftop solar, battery storage, and electric school buses to advanced manufacture of silicon anodes for Li-ion batteries, and sustainable aviation fuel. The stakes are high. To take an example, US airlines will need to use SAF to be able to fly to Europe, with the EU having just agreed to adopt an SAF blending mandate, underscoring the importance of continued investment in transformative technologies funded by the IRA.
U.S. companies have announced more than $133 billion in clean energy technology and EV manufacturing investment since President Biden signed the IRA into law in 2022. Clean energy jobs now employ 3.3 million people in the U.S.—more than nurses, cashiers, teachers, and waitstaff together. Wind turbine service technician is the fastest-growing occupation in America. Utilities and tech giants, focused on energy-intensive data centers, actively use IRA tax credits, loans, and grants to leverage private investment for modernizing grid reliability, safety, and resilience so we’re not left fumbling in the dark.
Even oil and gas companies recognize the inevitable shift toward a Net Zero future. Occidental Petroleum is relying on IRA funding to develop direct air capture (DAC) technology, which will be needed to capture and sequester the hardest-to-reach GHG emissions from jet travel. The IRA-funded USDA New Era program’s grants and loans leverage rural electric co-op investment in renewable energy infrastructure to build resilience to extreme weather events where grid reliability falls short. IRA funds are also often used for disaster recovery in states impacted by climate-induced floods, sea level rise, drought, hurricanes, and extreme wind and thunderstorms.
Synonymous with oil and gas, Texas is now the nation’s leader in solar and wind energy generation, “driven by economic factors that even staunch climate change skeptics find hard to ignore.” In rural West Texas, conservatives now view renewable energy as a key driver of economic development,” reports the Financial Times.
Clean energy is now hard-wired into the U.S. economy, and repeal of the IRA would cause substantial economic disruptions in critical regions and industries as the country is finally emerging from the pandemic-induced supply chain chaos and inflation is abating.
Politics
Economic realities often shape political outcomes. An estimated 58% of clean energy investment in the U.S. following the passage of the IRA has been in Republican states and districts. Texas could see $131 billion in IRA-funded investment, Florida $62 billion, and Georgia $16 billion. Having voted against the passage of the IRA, Congressional Republicans are taking credit for IRA-funded clean energy projects in their districts.
Utilities and energy companies committed to electrification and tech giants needing data centers and a reliable grid, their supply chains, lobbyists and congressional allies will rally in opposition to cuts in IRA funding. Awkward coalitions may be formed: Politico has reported the US Chamber of Commerce and American Petroleum Institute are gearing up to defend the IRA from assault, at least for the provisions they like.
The biggest political reality is that to repeal or substantively dismantle the IRA will require Republican control of the White House, Senate, and House, since Democrats can be expected to resist an assault on the IRA. Even if a Republican trifecta were achieved, any repeal or rollback of the IRA would likely need to bypass the Senate filibuster by using the reconciliation process, allowing budget resolutions to pass with a simple 50+1 majority. However, a small group of Senators or House members could still block or alter any rollback of the IRA. Notably, more than a dozen House Republicans recently bucked the party line and wrote a letter to Republican Speaker Mike Johnson asking him to protect the IRA’s clean energy tax credits if Republicans maintain their House majority next year.
Even without Congress, Trump could direct the Treasury Department to re-interpret rules limiting companies and industries that could claim the IRA’s tax credits, loans, and grants. But these would be open to legal challenge, and some adjustments might be warranted. Automakers are shifting to hybrids as the wave of early EV adoption slows. The cost of the shift is significant, $1.9 billion for Ford. Expanding the IRA’s tax credit eligibility requirements to include plug-in hybrid technologies as a bridge might generate a broad coalition. Another sign that cooler heads may prevail: Analysts at Goldman Sachs now report that the Trump economic agenda would set back, not grow, the economy, and an IRA rollback would contribute to the GDP retrenchment. Despite continued attacks on EV incentives, Trump’s recent announcement “I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly” suggests transactional openings for mitigating rollback for keystone IRA programs.
Will the IRA be Repealed?
More than 100 EPA regulations were repealed during Trump’s first term, and we can expect a second Trump term to be marked by a regulatory rollback spree and an increase in gas and oil leases and LNG exports. New climate legislation will be DOA, with energy and climate equity thrown under the bus. EV tax credits may not survive in their current form, if at all, and wind (particularly offshore) will be sacrificed as a trophy for the base. These will be major setbacks, but given the economic and political realities, a wholesale dismantling of the IRA might be avoided.
Are these realistic scenarios if Trump regains the White House? At this point, I’m cautiously optimistic that a worst-case scenario might be avoided, albeit with a confidence level measurable in a flip of a coin. But given the dire alternatives – total repeal of the IRA amounting to the abandonment of a federal role in solving the climate crisis, I hope my optimism is warranted. There’s too much at stake— and not just for grant writers.
About the author
As the founder of Net Zero Grant Writing, Dr. Matthew Slavin has secured $100 million in federal grant funding for next-generation energy, climate resilience, transportation, and sustainable infrastructure projects under the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. His success is built on three decades of experience in high-profile technical, policy, and communications roles across consulting, industry, and government. A recognized thought leader, his insights have been featured in academic and business journals, news media, and university textbooks, as well as a wide range of client reports and marketing campaigns. He has been a contributor to Renewable Energy World for more than a decade.