The North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) has issued an order accepting a settlement of Duke Energy’s Carolinas Resource Plan, which calls for thousands of megawatts (MW) of new solar, battery storage, onshore wind, combustion turbines, and combined cycle plants.
Due to an “unprecedented increase” in projected customer demand seen in its fall load growth forecast, Duke Energy provided state regulators with supplemental modeling on Jan. 31, 2024.
In July this year, prior to the NCUC’s evidentiary hearing on the plan, Duke Energy, the NCUC Public Staff, Walmart and the Carolinas Clean Energy Business Association reached a broad settlement on most topics at issue in the Carolinas long-range plan. The settlement committed Duke Energy to increasing the amount of solar energy and battery storage on its system through 2030, provided the opportunity to upgrade existing small solar facilities that are approaching the end of their contract terms with Duke, and committed Duke Energy to continued reform of its transmission planning process.
Duke Energy originally filed its proposed Carolinas Resource Plan with the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) On Aug. 17, 2023, two days after filing the same plan with the Public Service Commission of South Carolina (PSCSC). The Carolinas Resource Plan is Duke Energy’s proposed road map for its dual-state system serving North Carolina and South Carolina.
“We believe this is a constructive outcome that allows us to deploy increasingly clean energy resources at a pace that protects affordability and reliability for our customers,” Duke Energy said in a statement. “The order confirms the importance of a diverse, ‘all of the above’ approach that is essential for long-term resource planning and helps us meet the energy needs of our region’s growing economy. We look forward to thoroughly reviewing the NCUC order and incorporating it into our future resource planning.”
After gathering input from public hearings, evaluating Duke’s proposal, modeling, and settlement – along with modeling from Public Staff and targeted recommendations from intervenors – and conducting an extensive evidentiary hearing across two weeks, the NCUC issued its decision late last week. The order accepts the July settlement in its entirety.
Specifically, the order directs Duke Energy to pursue the following:
Near-Term Resources
- Solar: 3,460 megawatts (MW) of new solar generation, beyond the NCUC’s 2022 order – 6,700 MW total by 2031.
- Battery: 1,100 MW of battery energy storage, beyond the NCUC’s 2022 order – 2,700 MW total by 2031.
- Onshore Wind: 1,200 MW of onshore wind in operation by 2033, including at least 300 MW in operation by 2031.
- Combustion Turbines (CTs): Four CTs by 2030 – 900 MW of additional CTs (two units) beyond the 800 MW (two units) in the NCUC’s 2022 order.
- Combined Cycles (CCs): Three CC units by 2031 – 2,720 MW of additional CC capacity (CC2 and CC3) beyond the 1,200 MW (CC1) in the NCUC’s 2022 order.
Long-Term Resources
- Bad Creek II: Approved continued development work, including requested $165 million in early development costs.
- Nuclear: Approved continued development work, including requested $440 million in early development costs, targeting 300 MW of advanced nuclear capacity on line by 2034 and a total of 600 MW by 2035.
- Offshore Wind: Approved continued development work through the Acquisition Request for Information (ARFI) to advance the evaluation of offshore wind’s role in future resource plans, with results filed no later than July 30, 2025, and targeting between 800 and 1,100 MW of offshore wind by 2034 and 2,200 to 2,400 MW by 2035.
Modeling, Reserve Margin, Interim Carbon Reduction Target and Other Key Findings
- Confirmed Duke Energy’s recommended portfolio, P3 Fall Base, as the “reference portfolio.”
- Approved increase in the minimum planning reserve margin to 22% by 2031.
- Waived the requirement to model 70% carbon reduction by 2030, agreed that the evidence in the case supported the decision to extend the date for achieving 70% carbon reduction beyond 2032, and ordered Duke Energy to continue pursuing “all reasonable steps” to achieve 70% carbon reduction by the earliest possible date.
- Confirmed proposed coal retirement dates.
- Noted that “The Commission must be mindful of the impacts to customers when determining the appropriate action to take … to ensure that Duke, and North Carolina, continue this trajectory of rates that are at or below the national average,” highlighting the inflation-adjusted bill impact of the plan as a 0.9% increase by 2038.
The PSCSC continues to deliberate on the resource plan and will issue an order on or before Nov. 26, 2024. Following that order, Duke Energy said it will begin executing the plan while simultaneously developing the modeling required for its 2025 plan update in North Carolina, which must be filed by September 2025. As outlined in North Carolina law, the plan must be checked and adjusted every two years, incorporating technology advances, updated cost forecasts and applicable federal funding that could help customers save money over time.
In it’s 2024 filing to the NCUC, Duke said “new economic development wins, including manufacturing and technology projects across the Carolinas” make up the primary driver of the increased electric demand. The utility said annual demand expects to increase 22% by 2030 and 25% by 2035 from 2022 planning cycles — driven by significant additional economic development activity that took place during 2023. Notably, according to the Census Bureau, South Carolina’s population grew faster than any state’s in 2023.
Duke Energy put forth its original resource plan to regulators in August 2023. The company presented three portfolio scenarios but recommended one that achieves 70% CO2 emission reductions from 2005 levels by 2035. The “Portfolio P3 Fall Base,” introduced almost 6.8 GW of additional resources.
Originally published in Power Engineering.
