At the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference – COP28, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will be one of the few countries in attendance that can help to course correct and keep global warming at 1.5°C above the preindustrial average, according to the World Bank.
DRC is a climate “solutions” country with its reserves of green minerals, pristine forests and large hydropower capacity. Several building blocks will be necessary to support this vision, such as continued political commitment; well-aligned multi-level governance; clear institutional frameworks; robust laws, policies and strategies; well-managed oversight and financing; and robust data management, per the new DRC Country Climate Development Report (CCDR).
DRC’s history of conflict and political instability has hampered economic growth, undermined state capacity, entrenched corruption and hindered delivery of basic services to its people. At 234 million hectares, DRC is the largest country by surface area in Sub-Saharan Africa and one of the world’s poorest, with an estimated poverty rate of 62.3%. At the same time, the country stands ready to lead in the global climate arena, the World Bank said. This strategic vision is enshrined in the 2030 National Strategic Development Plan, which defines a path for DRC to reach middle-income status by 2035.
The country must pursue structural transformation and diversify its economy to promote sustainable development in an inclusive way, while reducing poverty and tackling regional disparities. DRC holds almost half of the world’s mineral reserves, with more than 1,000 different substances, including 20 strategic ores. With 5.6% average growth over 2002 to 2021, the DRC economy is among the fastest-growing in Sub-Saharan Africa. DRC’s hydropower potential could supply the current energy consumption of the entire African continent. Yet the benefits of the natural wealth are not widely distributed and are not enhancing DRC’s human capital nor promoting a diversified economy. While providing long-lasting solutions to the world’s climate problems, DRC also needs to pursue its development goals and address climate risks. Enhancing institutions, building capacity and improving governance are important pre-conditions for climate change action and will help DRC become Africa’s leading climate solutions country.
The 2023 DRC CCDR finds that climate-related shocks, including floods and droughts, will rise in frequency and intensity. Increased infrastructure damage and connectivity issues are expected to worsen fragility, conflict and violence by intensifying competition over food and jobs, increasing internal migration, reducing economic opportunities and social cohesion, and straining public institutions and trust in the state. The impacts of climate change on poverty and human capital accumulation can negatively reinforce one another, further deepening poverty. DRC’s development goals will be harder to achieve in the context of a changing climate. Climate-sensitive Ebola outbreaks, malaria, cholera, and other diarrheal and vector-borne diseases are expected to increase as flooding and droughts intensify and affect labor productivity.
The CCDR also finds that under different development scenarios, climate change without adaptation could result in up to a 13% loss in GDP for the country. Economic development and growth in DRC will help build its overall resilience but do not suffice. If DRC stays on its growth trajectory, by 2050 climate change could result in GDP losses between 4.7% and 12.9%. However, selected adaptation measures could reduce the economic damage of climate change by almost half. With this in mind, the CCDR sets out four urgent action areas:
1. Underpin the vision of DRC as a climate “solutions” country through climate-smart mining, hydropower development, forest preservation and integrated landscape management;
2. Increase agriculture productivity and food security through climate-smart agriculture and support to farmer-led irrigation;
3. Develop climate-resilient transport and cities, enhance digital access and improve access to basic services; and
4. Enhance governance and boost human capital by reducing poverty, increasing social inclusion and enhancing security.
Implementing DRC’s climate solutions vision and its adaptation strategies requires considerable financing. Engaging the private sector and identifying other sources of finance is crucial. DRC could seek international payments for its global ecosystem services by leveraging public and private streams of climate finance. The credibility of a fund to collect grant-based payments for ecosystem services hinges on DRC’s governance and the readiness to access new and innovative financial mechanisms.
DRC has defined the core elements of its climate agenda. The country should now increase its focus on operationalizing climate action and addressing governance challenges, the World Bank said. For this, DRC needs a wide array of investments and policy packages to build resilience and sequence reforms, recognizing its fiscal constraints and low institutional capacity. By supporting higher-quality infrastructure and greater diversification, economic development is a powerful form of adaptation. Overcoming fragility and pursuing an economy-wide, resilient development path that will benefit its people, the region and the world is entirely possible for Africa’s giant.
