The current La Nina phase is persisting with not much change in sea surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean noted during the past few weeks. The latest long-range climate models suggest that this La Nina will remain in place through much of the upcoming spring season.
At the present time, there is about a 55% chance of this La Nina transitioning into a neutral phase during the late spring and early summer. As for the April temperature outlook, above normal readings are expected from parts of the Desert Southwest east to the Gulf Coast, especially throughout parts of New Mexico and west-central Texas. Late season heating degree days will likely be lower than average by between 20 and 60 across the regions during the month of April. Energy costs with respect to heating will also be lower than normal during this time period.
In contrast, temperatures may average slightly below normal in April across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a surplus of late season heating degree days of between 20 and 50 possible. Much of the north-central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast will likely see temperatures that are on a whole closer to average in April. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been positive for about three months and may finally go negative sometime in March.
If this trend occurs, periods of cooler air may settle into the eastern half of the country during the month of April. This trend will have to be watched closely.
