
By Megan Harju and Kyle Pynn, Burns & McDonnell
The revolutionary shift from internal combustion engines to electric drivetrains now underway in the transportation sector will have profound, long-term implications on daily life. More immediately, five emerging trends will shape the electrification landscape in 2022.
1. Significant funding increases for public charging are expected to accelerate EV adoption.
The bipartisan infrastructure legislation just signed into law includes $7.5 billion in funding for transportation electrification. That’s enough to jump-start the construction of the 500,000 public charging stations that President Biden has pledged to install by 2030. That would represent a tenfold increase over the nation’s existing public EV charging station inventory, according to the Department of Energy, and should fuel the confidence of consumers concerned about charging their EVs away from home.
The new federal funding heading to every state is expected to be a catalyst for public charging infrastructure in areas where EV adoption is low but expected to grow in the next two to four years. Keep an eye out for increased fast charging stations at rest stops and travel plazas along highway corridors. The success of these charging hubs will depend on increased coordination among site hosts, charging companies and local utilities.
2. New consumer EV models will appeal to a consumer demographic beyond early adopters.
As of June 2021, more than 1 million battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) were registered in the U.S., not including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). While early models appealed primarily to tech-savvy early adopters on the West and East coasts, the introduction of new models like Ford’s F-150 Lightning, Rivian’s R1T and GM’s Bolt EV, among others, is expanding the market to a broader middle-class demographic.
In addition to offering high-performance acceleration and torque, the F-150 Lightning brings a first-of-its-kind 10-kW onboard power system to the table. This appeals to consumers who appreciate the flexibility of powering their tailgate, construction tools or home with their car during a power outage. However, the learning curve associated with adopting new technologies and fueling patterns remains a hurdle for the average consumer. Ongoing collaboration is needed across the industry to make charging more convenient and easier to navigate.
Ford’s commitment to produce 600,000 EVs globally by 2023, along with GM’s plan to have a million EVs on the road worldwide by 2025, signals the growing urgency. EV growth in last-mile delivery trucks, Class 8 tractor-trailers and school buses compounds it.
3. Growth in EV adoption will add stress to an already strained electric grid.
EVs introduce new unpredictable and transient point loads on a grid whose resiliency is already challenged by growth in renewables and aging infrastructure. Increased peak demands can be partially mitigated using smart meters, distributed energy resources (DER) like solar and battery storage, and advanced communication systems.
Even so, these improvements alone won’t be enough to protect against circuit and equipment overload and system imbalances in a future in which everyone comes home and plugs in their EVs at 6 p.m. nightly. Scheduled charging software can help significantly. Utilities have a unique opportunity to partner with software providers and vehicle OEMs to coordinate managed charging at a distribution circuit level. Campaigns that educate consumers on EV best practices will be integral to these programs’ success.
Still, as EV use grows, existing distribution infrastructure will require upgrades to accommodate larger loads. Utilities have already begun fielding customer inquiries on selling excess DER energy to the grid — a question that will become common as customers consider vehicle-to-grid applications. In some cases, new rate structures may be needed to enable the adoption of these technologies. Flat- or no-demand charges, more accurate peak/off-peak times, and other time-of-use policies may be necessary to help balance grid supply and demand.
4. New and better power delivery solutions will increase charging power and speed.
Medium- and heavy-duty EVs — including box trucks, last-mile delivery vans, school and transit buses, and long-haul semi-trucks — require more power than light-duty vehicles. With commercial fleets looking to electrify their operations, innovations in power delivery are being explored, many of which will begin commercial deployment in 2022.
Medium-voltage utility services, centralized DC distribution, liquid-cooled cables, overhead pantographs and wireless charging are all technologies we’ll see more of in 2022. These each offer specific advantages, from increasing maximum charging speeds to providing efficiencies at scale for large deployments. For fleet applications that might require dozens of individual DCFC cabinets, containerized solutions that use centralized DC distribution are an emerging option. These containers can house multiple megawatts of DC rectifiers, reducing the number of foundations needed as well as the site’s footprint.
Some of these technologies may seem far-fetched, but the industry is moving quickly. Just five years ago, the average consumer fast charger was 50 kW. Today, it’s 150 kW and growing. While supply chain restraints may limit charger availability and impact infrastructure rollout in the short term, these advances, along with bigger and better battery technology, support increases in EV charging ranges and will help the U.S. be more prepared for growing demand.
5. The transition from internal combustion engines to EVs will fundamentally change fleet operations.
Every type of vehicle fleet — school buses, delivery vans, rental cars and more — will undergo a transformation when shifting from traditional fueling to electric charging methods. The one-size-fits-all approach to gas station fueling will become obsolete, with fleet owners required to design and install charging infrastructure tailored to support their individual fleets.
Consider, for example, transit bus systems. Given that these buses may need to operate 16 to 20 hours per day, operators may have only a short window during which batteries can be charged using high-power DC fast chargers. School buses, on the other hand, operate intermittently and sit idle for most of the day. They can be fully supported with much lower-power chargers.
Energy management also will grow more critical as fleets transition. Many complex inputs will need to be considered to prepare the fleet for the next day’s operations, while also minimizing peak demand on the electrical service. Energy management providers such as The Mobility House, ViriCiti, and Amply Power will be integral to EV deployments at scale.