Solar

IMS: Germany slips in 2011, but global installs still rise

The PV market’s increasing diversification in 2011 — twice as many countries will add 100MW or more — will help push global PV installs by nearly 20% to 19GW, even as the key German PV market stumbles, according to IMS Research.

December 2, 2010 – The PV market’s increasing diversification in 2011 — twice as many countries will add 100MW or more — will help push global PV installs by nearly 20% to 19GW, even as the key German PV market stumbles, according to IMS Research.

The analyst group sees overall PV installs more than doubling in 2010 to “easily exceed 16GW,” as a slip in the German market (from 2010’s ~8GW) is more than offset by installs in other key markets — five countries alone will add 3GW in 2011, accounting for 40% of global demand. Germany’s PV market share, seen falling to 46% in 2010, will keep slipping to just 35% in 2011 “and continue to drop steadily after that,” but filling that marketshare gap will be hot markets in the Americas and Asia, according to Ash Sharma, IMS PV research director.

IMS predicts four more years of rising PV installations, adding up to more than 100GW of new PV capacity added. Look for continued heavy demand from GW-sized markets such as Italy and US, as well as burgeoning demand from emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia, he writes in a statement. “We’ve identified 18 markets that will each install at least 100MW next year, up from just eight markets in 2009,” he writes, a surge that “is hugely encouraging” because it means the PV industry “will eventually become much less dependent upon just one or two countries, and less susceptible to huge swings in demand caused by changes to incentive schemes.”

Market share of new PV installations by region. (Source: IMS Research, “Global PV demand database 4Q10”)