Solar

Displaybank: Global PV market outlook dims on weaker demand, subsidies

Global PV installation capacity will slide nearly -12% in 2009, more than double the projected ~5% drop seen just a few months ago, due to still-soft demand and strong pullback in government subsidies from previously active regions, according to a report from Displaybank.

June 25, 2009 – Global PV installation capacity will slide nearly -12% in 2009, more than double the projected ~5% drop seen just a few months ago, due to still-soft demand and strong pullback in government subsidies from previously active regions, according to a report from Displaybank.

Back in February the firm had pegged PV installation to drop from 5.5GW in 2008 to 5.2GW this year — but now says PV installed capacity will sink to 4.8GW, due to two factors which have weakened demand: a greater-than-expected global economic recession, and a “radical shrinkage of government subsidy programs” by previously active firms. Spain in particular led global PV capacity with 2.3GW in 2008, but has pulled way back to just 0.4GW. Other nations, including the US, Japan, and China, have begun expanding subsidy programs, the firm notes, but these will be “insufficient to overcome the effect of global recession.”

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Global PV installation forecast. (Source: Displaybank)


Of particular note is Korea, which also has cut into its subsidy programs, the report notes. The government has pledged to support 200MW (the outstanding volume of feed-in tariff) for the next three years, which should translate into PV installation demand of about 78MW this year, 115MW in 2010, and 154MW in 2011. By those calculations, the firm notes, Korea — which was No.4 in PV capacity in 2008 with 5.0% market share — would sink to just 1.1% in 2013.

 

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Korea PV installation and global market share forecast. (Source: Displaybank)