Dennis's Comments

Good questions, Jen,

The cost of investment into greenways and bike lanes is much cheaper than building new roads - as most vehicles carry an extra 1,500+ pounds more than necessary in the process of transporting people and small goods around.

Since the US is bigger, we should focus our bike/ped infrastructure investments where they will make the biggest impact. For instance, the East Coast Greenway corridor from DC to Boston has a similar density to many areas in Europe that you bring up. So, we are focusing our efforts to complete the greenway there and then people will demand a safe route to get up to Acadia National Park in Maine or down to Key West in Florida.

I'm not proposing that we build as many greenways as there are roads today - but that we set up a network in the coming decade that allows cyclists and pedestrians to get from major population centers to major attractions (a la the insterstate highway system - an Eisenhower 2.0).

Active long-distance travel will become logical for many people who see the cost advantages (especially as oil prices climb back toward $100 in 2010) and the health advantages. It won't work for everyone, but what I'm encouraging is that we get 35% of the population to do so by 2020.

What do you think? Other folks?

I also see some fun connections with my cousins in other renewables: electric bikes could pull up to solar- and wind-powered battery charging stations when they pull over for lunch or a bathroom stop. Mobile life free of fossil fuels is within our reach :)

-Dennis

Pretty awesome for the wind sector to grow 100% from 1st qtr '08 even as the rest of the economy is shrinking. I think this helps show that a green energy revolution can drive our economic recovery in 2010 and beyond.

For details on the % of wind power in states' electricity mix, see:
http://setenergy.org/2009/04/29/1st-quarter-wind-power-growth-breaks-record/

Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis

These are exciting developments - and they are happening quickly here in 2009!

That's why I think the EIA underestimates US wind growth through 2030 in their recent Annual Energy Outlook. See details at:
http://setenergy.org/2009/04/03/why-doe-eia-underestimate-wind-power-growth/

Onwards to sustainability,

Dennis

I'm surprised the author predicts solar to be unremarkable in 2020. It's not even listed as hydro is the 3rd biggest renewable that year at 4%.

Solar prices are falling quickly this year. See updated details at:

http://setenergy.org/2009/04/06/solar-prices-creep-lower-apri/

If they predict solar grid parity ~2015, why wouldn't it grow toward 6+% by 2020 (from its current base ~5 GW to ~25 GW in 2020 would just take a repeat of last year's 1.86 GW growth throughout the period).

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis

You make a good point, Steven,

Wind does have a certain potential in each region. Germany and Denmark seem to have gotten close to their onshore capacity potential. But the good thing for the US and China is that these major energy consumers have the potential to grow more than 20 times their current level. I'm excited to see how they develop...

For details on their race for wind power supremacy, see:

www.setenergy.org

Great news for us in NY!

We just joined the 1 GW wind power club as state #8.

See details at:

www.setenergy.org

Go Germany!

It's nice that the US has finally caught up to Germany in GWs of wind, though we have a long way to go in percentage terms. On solar, Germany and Europe can enjoy record low module prices that just emerged this month. See details at:
http://www.setenergy.org

It will be interesting to see how far solar's price will fall in the year ahead...

Onwards,
Dennis

Keep it up, Konarka!
We need those solar costs to fall at least 25% in the years ahead. For some details, see:
http://setenergy.org/2008/12/04/solar-price-falling-slowly-natural-gas-continues-slide/

Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis

Nice article-
Do you really think polysilicon manufacturers will go ahead with plans for 150k tons by the end of 2010? Do you think capacity is now 50kt or is production approaching 75kt+ at end of '08? I keep checking in with prices to see when modules will drop below their trough of a few years ago. It will definitely be an interesting ride ahead in 2009.
My thoughts on the sustainable energy transition are at:
www.setenergy.org
-Dennis

Here's hoping we can get wind turbine prices down toward $1,400/kW again to help them compete with the lower natural gas prices in 2009. I'm also interested to see how far polysilicon prices will fall to help solar producers lower the price of their product.
Onwards in the sustainable energy transition,
Dennis
www.setenergy.org

Nice article-
I agree that renewable energy is in a better position than most fossil fuel or nuclear power plant builders. The huge initial capital needed for a 500+ MW coal or nuclear plant seems harder to access than the more nimble renewables applications (especially since multiple state Renewable Portfolio Standards guarantee a market in the coming decade while a recent EPA ruling may sideline new coal plant projects in their current form). Growth rates will probably slow down a bit for renewable energy. This will allow prices to fall so that renewables won't be marginalized as so high-cost in the years to come.

As a climate activist, I recommend a national focus on the cheaper energy efficiency in 2009 -- then spurring economic recovery in 2010 with fresh growth in wind, solar and other renewables.
Onwards in the sustainable energy transition,
Dennis www.setenergy.org

Steven,
I was assuming they didn't include hydro. If you include hydro, we already have 10% of electricity from renewables (7% hydro + 1.4% wind + 2% biomass + .1% solar). So, why would we set an RPS for 10% by '12? Are they really including hydro in their RPS recommendation?

Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis www.setenergy.org

Great piece-

On the RPS, how do people see this 10% by 2012 happening? My estimates, based on EIA stats, are that the renewables share of electricity will be ~3.8% by end 2008. How do you see that share climbing to 10% over the next four years. I have strong growth getting to ~8% as wind passes 50 GW cumulative capacity and solar passes 6 GW in '12. Can biomass and geothermal grow at 30% per year? The frozen credit market makes 10% by 2012 seem very difficult to me right now, but am I being overly pessimistic? What growth do others see?
The later RPS goal of 25% by 2025 seems reasonable to me.

Dennis , www.setenergy.org

Thanks for the informative article-
Indeed, if China doesn't build a smart grid and change its business as usual energy path, their emissions will rival those of the US, EU and Japan combined by 2030. Our climate needs China to deploy a smart grid with wind, solar, and CCS coal providing new power needs by 2020. Hopefully, once the US passes a cap and trade climate bill in 2009 we will be up for helping China and India stabilize their emissions in the years ahead.
Onwards to sustainability,

Dennis , www.setenergy.org

Kudos to these companies-

But it's gonna take much more. We need a US cap and trade bill passed in 2009 and some solid negotiations that get China and India involved in the process in Copenhagen! Today's IEA report shows that oil supply stagnation could lead to a rush to coal unless a carbon price is implemented to accelerate the sustainable energy transition -- rapid deployment of efficiency and renewables.

See more at:
www.setenergy.org

-Dennis