Ford's Comments

NO mention of cost. Great a company can produce a cell with 20+ percent efficiency or 10-20% over "standard" cells.
1. Does that efficiency in cell necissarily translate to more kWh/system???
2. If it costs 30-40% more to create a cell that is 10-20% more efficient, the math doesn't work out.

number 2 probably answers your question Anon.

FE

Hey, guess what, that means module prices are going to go up. demand increase, supply is unchanged.
FE

"$4/watt is getting closer to where installed prices should be. But if the industry average is 50%+ higher then there are still systemic problems. Your $4/watt is being averaged up by someone charging more like $8/watt." Bob_wallace

1 word...lease.

Lease companys charge themselves more for the system they own, so they can get a 30% tax grant (when applicable) or credit (not as attractive to the lease company) essentially they can sell themselves a system at a price considerably higher than thier costs and get a 30% of a bigger number. That bigger number is what goes on record as the installed cost of that system. Leasing is a vehicle, but it is powered by tax dollars.

But it's a "bad deal" for the consumer. They may not know that at $4.00/W a 3kW system is $12k, they spend more than that on a car, some may even be able to pay in cash. "bad deal" is in quotes, because the lease isn't awful, it promotes business and may give an opportunity for an individual who can't affor or get a loan for 12K to get in the game. JUST READ THE FINE PRINT ON THE CONTRACT! Make sure the value proposition is right for you and know the exit strategy, from your home, or the lease, or the contract.
FE

Good luck with those $1.00/W modules...I saw that article too...Where do you buy that one again, whats the number??

Why does this carbon diamond cost more than this carbon pencil?

More importantly, in 2011, your energy costs will be higher. and if you keep waiting for the next better cheaper version...you would never buy a new computer. The value and viability of the PV system can work now in the right locations.

4 things that make PV worthwhile;
1. Sun
(PV won't work so well in a cave)
2. High existing or expected utility costs
(if you're paying $0.06/kWh coal production...PV can't compete on the $ value, if you are paying $0.42/kWh like in tier 5 Northern CA... PV is an excellent solution: side note, they are already asking for another rate increase!!)
3. Incentives
(for states who are sick of the smog and are looking to a cleaner future, they will offer incentives that can help aleviate the strain on the stressed utility infrastructure)
(Check the Fed PV grant program for non incentive states if you don't have the tax appetite for 30% tax credit)
4. How important is the environment to you?


Remember, you are not buying electricity, you are buying a power plant (energy conversion unit) to make the energy you need, like a car or a generator, but with less maintinance and no ongoing fuel costs. And would you expect a generator to last 25 years under warranty? how about the car?

FS

Grid parity is on it's way for PV...which can be implemented anywhere, unlike Wind or Hydro (which is important from a National perspective). A defined term for system subsedies will allow the industry to continue to move forward with progression towards cost reductions and economies of Scale with a clear grid parity deadline. The promethies report sited by Ben actually supports the growth of the Si purification capacities...5X in 6 years (2006-20012). and that's with the seimans process for 9x9's purity...PV only needs 6x9's purity...that can be done cheaper and that is also under development. (9x9's is a carry over from the semiconductor industry where purity is a large concern...same plants have provided the PV industry for years)

On the Environmental impact of Chinese PV Companies...buy Modules made in the US (or locally for EU readers) and support those companies with clearly stated company environmental goals and targets. I can think of 3-4 in the US and Canada. The Company that manufactures the modules I use, actually includes an environmental impact statement along with thier Quarterly Financial Statement....and they are made locally.

If the true goal of the Energy Plan is to reduce dependance and increase energy independance in an environmentally responsable way...then some subsedy is required for the new technology to expand to a scale where costs can be reduced without subsedies. PV is available now and is a proven performer and will produce Energy in every US State every day (save northern Alaska in the winter months).

taking some hits and I need to respond...

Concerned, not sure where you are in Califonia and paying $20/Wp for an installed system, the state Average is $8/Wp. That Homeowner 2.5kW system should be $25K BEFORE incentives (at the easy $10/W)...about $19-18K after, that's $6-7 K paid by the subsedies, about 25% (ITC currently caps Homeowners at $2K)

Regarding the Bill...PV owners still pay the maintinance costs for the grid...same as everyone else...only pay less or $0 for the KWh they use. they will never have a $0.00 bill per annum...anyone tells you that they are lying. Every bill has base rates that are charged. If they're getting a system that supplies all of thier kWh, they didn't have a very good PV system designer...from a financial perspective.

Some California Utilities have a program for low income households, they can actually get a PV system essentially for FREE under this program...

Everyone is paying anyway...it's what to do with the money being paid.
Even if the utility rates go up for everyone to pay for a PV program (which currently doesn't exist in the US) we're talking pennies per year per meter...PENNIES! Inflation will go up much faster than that.

"favored special interest"
I'm thinking that the oil and Gas industries are far more a favored special interest group than PV. Don't get me wrong, we need investment in all REs but we shouldn't rob Peter(PV) to pay Paul (other REs)...maybe take it from Judas (Oil, gas, they get the highest incentives AND the highest profits...wasn't it Exxon that made more money than any company EVER last year).

"Si is not scaling well"
It takes a minimum of 3 years for a Si purification factory to begin production from ground breaking. The investments in that expansion started about 2 years ago...then it takes time to trickle down, I would actually say they are on schedule. I know we live in a world of instant gratification. payoff in 6-18 months, cook in 20 seconds, instant loans to buy a home...but that thinking is part of what got us in this environmental predicament and economic issue...break the paradigm.
"tax to cover the cost of those jobs"
A tax credit for the willing does not lead to higher taxes for everyone else. We don't have to raise taxes to pay for this...the companies involved in the sale all have to pay taxes, Manufacturers, distributors, Installers and all of thier emplyees. The money comes back to the Government plus some. Ideally, they grow expanding the workforce and the taxes paid...all while economies of scale decrease the price...plus we can keep the cash flow here, not send it to Europe or Asia...because they are not planning on being out of the PV business in 5 years, of that I am sure.
"PV has no chance of competing in a fair market"
This is where there is a fundamental difference in opinion. First a definition of "Fair" is subjective...you know that Utilities and Coal Plants and Oil and gas industries ALL get substantial subsedies...we haven't paid the true cost of energy yet as consumers...they are all subsedized. Second, the market will continue to change.
All said, I enjoy a good debate Ben. We'll both just have to wait and see.

Si is scaling up...faster than any other Tech

Investing in an industry creates MORE jobs...hence the ITC

Come on guys, be real about the rich getting the benefit the poor are paying for....Should we do away with investing in the market and mutual and retirement funds because it only makes the people who can afford to invest richer and the poor get nothing from it.
With PV the grid is more secure from blackouts or brown outs, energy production is local, not imported.

Cristaline silicon PV only has five years left...that's a joke right?
The cost of purified Si (the most abundant material on earth) has gone up some 10x from 10 years ago due to high demand from the industry. When these Si factories come on line the price for Si will fall. Si is about 50-65% of the cost for crystaline PV modules, if the expected explosion of available Si only drops the current price in half, that's a conservative 25% reduction in the current cost of a PV module.

We need to build the bridges to the future not throw a bunch of rocks in the river until we can cross it.

PV is already grid parity, w/out incentives...it only depends on the system life expectancy, location and the grid $/kwh you are comparing. We have to look in the longer term. Most Warranties for crystaline silicon modules (obviously the bulk of the cost of a system and the muscle behind the technology) are 25 years. Someone has said "take how long you are sure your product will last, divide by 2, and that's how long you should warrant it." If we only take the 25 or 30 years as life expectancy, the PV electricity cost $0.17 - $0.20 per kWh...if you presume 50 year system life, the cumulative $/kwh drops in half to $0.10/kwh. This includes the conservative 4 inverter replacements over that 50 years...and the first production Solar cells from Bell Labs are still producing power over 50 years later...with 50 year old technology.

On the ITC loss (at this point I am only hoping for a delay...full Q4 2008 extension would be nice, but don't hold your breath)...it will generate a weeding out of smaller unsecured companies, and consolodate to the larger more sustainable businesses. This will limit the options and choices out there, but it is going to happen sometime, as it has with many successful industries (Cars, Energy, Oil, Gas). The looming deadline has generated a new "shortage" by inflated demand on PV manufacturers to supply by Dec 31 for rushed installations, and has already begun to limit the modules available for smaller installation companies.

As a country, we need to follow suite behind the Japanese and German models...and not strictly approach this Energy and Security issue from a $ perspective...it's much bigger than that...make the commitments for the future not for the padded pockets today. Of course this requires selflessness on the individual level that has fallen away from the US society and leadership. When Gas is $15/gal and energy is $1.00/kwh, PV will be a clear solution. Unfortunatly we'll all be coughing and frying by that point.

Of course a majority of Germans are not willing to pay more for renewables...they are already paying more on thier electric bill to pay for renewables in thier Solar Incentive structure...

Consumers don't have much choice on the current rates they are paying for electricity. Self-generation is usually the only option outside of the local utility...and I'm pretty sure we don't have a say in how much the utilities charge...but the governement does...hmmmm...interesting.

Nifty Technology, but it's value proposition will only be as valuable as the Marketing Department allocates it. At best, the straight $/kW-h value to the system would be break even compared to traditional retail energy costs over the lifetime of the system, probably worse depending on lifetime degredation and actual cost of material and installation. There's a reason traditional PV cells are blue and black....all the other light gets turned into energy...darker colored light contains less energy and is reflected...making the cells appear the darker colors.  The light colored cells means the high energy light is then reflected and wasted, making for a far less efficient transformation.

Shame

Can't let false info go unchecked.
Mr. Berry,
"It costs 3 to 6 times the market rate. (Solar Buzz Year End review solar pv $.30 to $.60 per kwh installed)"
Just went to the site..."Solar Electricity-21.37 cents per kWh" in industrial apps. http://www.solarbuzz.com/"
Also, the 21 cents is based on 5.5 Sunhrs/day and 20 years of PV production...40 year old PV modules are still producing power, with 40 year old technology. Do you really think the $0.08/kWh will stand for the next 20 years and not go up? Historically it's gone up 10%/yr for the last 20 years. At 7%/yr rate increase starting at $0.08/kWh (which I think is low as a national average)...rates in 30 years will be $.57/kWh. CA is paying $0.36/kWh NOW in tier 5. Don't get me wrong Windpower is great, but you aren't going to put a windmill in Downtown LA, Denver, or DC And new distribution lines need to be added to transmit the power to where it is needed. I promise, the Sun comes up every day.

$/W?