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Alberto Escobar's Comments

August 26, 2014

What’s Next in the SolarWorld-China Game of High Stakes Poker?

I believe that all the precedent comments are anfortunately corrects in my concept, an in order to avoid the risk of been miss understood with the sentence " in my concept" I would like to explain based in my own experience related to this subject why I want to introduce some global scope about Power development in general referred to the Universal fact that the Power market it is nothing but the result of a Particular Society with all the features involved in such simplification:
Therefore we could find all kind of particularities in every one of them.- Certainly many coincidences and or many differences but nevertheles the Universal fact it is that every society it is organized as result of his history and untill today the history it shows that " the local prices of any product in a particular society specially when referred to more specific applications,( as it is the case of renewable energy and still more soecific in the case of Solar techologies) - allways , or allmost allways it happens that the final price to local users became directly or indirectly much more expensive that the average existing ,fob price or cif prices previus to that particular increase in demand........when we talk of energy I assume that nothing could be from one day to other....why?
- in first place because the Gryd features cannot be adjusted from one day to other as well as the Grid management- it is not possible to increase the connection or evacuation points......Considering this fact, independantly the WHO manage or own the Grid it is clear that require a previous regulatory frame definitions or requirements that impose finally an specific procedure to follow an it will be difficult to imagine that all this "usually new regulatory specific frames could be defined, achieved an impose it in less than 2 or 3 years previous to the definitive final legal and operative frame?"
Therefore during all this preliminary GLOBAL DEMAND´ potentiel INCREASE as it had been the case of Solar energy during the last 10 years in Europe, we can say that fortunately USA MARKETS an others, also based in market principle can make possible to keep the idea of competitiveness alive....
IBetween years 2007 up to 2008 were installed app. 7.000 MW ( 1 MEGAWATT= 1.000 Kilo WATTs) and the price for the KW ( Kilo Watt) referred to the panels (plate ) it was 3.700 € (4400 us$ per 1.000 KW) non installed when installed and operating on turn key basis it was
6.300 € KW output..........
- What did you received in exchange per net KWh deivered to the Gryd?...€0,45 per KWh in prnciple during 25 years.......

IT IS CLEAR THAT WHEN THE REGULATORY FRAME IT WAS PUBLISHED BECOMMED one of the best investment product in the market..

.BIG QUESTION TODAY IT IS ...A1- WHICH IT WAS THE REAL PRICE FOB China, or Canada or USA at that time?

A2.- WHY it was allmost impossible to get 1 MW on CIF basis 1 year previous to the date of the regulatory frame for 1 small turnkey engineering proyect in Spain at a lower price?

Most probably the regulated markets are in a high percentage responsible of the changes in prices but nevertheless I believe that the main obstacles are the main utilities in every market as for them any advantages for the consumers it become a pressure again their tariff to final users...
Certainly it is difficult a summary about a complex Global reality , but this are just a few concepts based in my own experience as Developer, Engineering and Consultant during 30 years around the World...

-

July 03, 2014

A Ray of Clean Energy Sunshine Peeking Through the Beijing Haze

Some times when we had been involved for a long time in the Development problematic ( 45 years in my case as independent researcher and Consultancy) it is regrettable the lack of continuity in the reference to this subject which should be a first priority and in theory had been like that in the most advanced Societys.....
- Just some samples
In Many European Countries,the Cities with less that 8.000 citizens, DO NOT COMPLY WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION REQUIREMENTS........?

- What about India'....

But let us review common sense Isolutions within the principle of applicated RACIONALITY in the Power sector:

- For instance : waste water and or sea water desalting technologies alternatives...

Since over 40 years it is available the Multi step flow technology (MSFT) which represent at least 30 % energy saving comparatively to reverse osmosis alternative...........

If we consider that for this purpose or any thermic application we could use the waste thermic energy availble in any Power Plant regardless how old it is and if we add the compensation given to the Utilities in the EU during the last 20 years compensated from the consumers bill.....certainly any one will get a good amount of questions related to the real meanning of soustainability and or applicated reasonable solutions.....

June 28, 2014

Listen Up: SEIA Explains New Tariffs on Chinese Solar Products

Congratulations to all this efforts which will help to facilitate the changes in the local legislation any where......
Unfortunately in Europe and many Countries the utilities are becoming an strong obstacle and we could say that legislation it is becoming comparatively regressive.

June 03, 2014

German Energy Reforms Could Spell Trouble for Small Renewable Energy Producers

It seems that the tendency in the EU it is to reduce the impact of the : medium, small size producers in PV Plants when they do not belong to the main utilities sharing the Power business within the European Grid... it seems more an imposition from such main utilities sharing the Grid once finally the full grid it will become integrated according with EU target for year 2014...
It seems that after many years promoting cogeneration as common targets within the EU, "THE FINAL KWH PRICE TO END USERS BECOMES EXCESSIVE AS CONSECUENCE OF THE HIGH INCIDENCE OF THE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN RENEWABLE OR COGENERATION CONCEPT....WIND POWER, PV OR SOLAR TERMIC + HYDRO +COGENERATION FACE TO COAL,NUCLEAR, COMBINE CYCLE,ETC......
It seems meaningfull the relationship between the pseudo planned cost along the last 20 years and consecuences Country by Country as debt increase face to the real cost per installed MWH.......just growth increase based in non efficient management.
It is interesting to compare the differences in Power cost per MW between USA and Europe in any technology durin the last 20 years

December 25, 2013

Microinverters Moving Into Commercial-Scale Solar: When Will It Happen?

I believe in first place that any development in this direction it must be promoted and backed up for the sector´s members in benefit of the short, medium and long term real growth of PV technology as one of the most feasible alternatives as contribution into the equation ;
sustainability- cost - rationality.
The fastest the technology grows less damage for the community pocket and even skepticism as result of the generalized screwed up happening in some countries ( i would recommend the recent Spanish experience since yr. 2004-2013 for better understanding as the most frustrating case ).
In second place, I would recommend a sort of generalized consensus between the main active Countries promoting the PV market, and or Thermic Solar or any Recognized renewable technology , to assume and facilitate with the main Power companies actives in their Grid Systems that " sustainable energy it means an impact in the traditional way to handle the technical-economical balance in their systems and therefore their traditional economics results "
Considering that in most of the main Countries in the world the power markets had been controlled or managed as monopoly or oligopoly either under the States or Economics Groups .
USA is a singular case as market in the world and therefore the way that business decision are made in USA has nothing to do with the rest of the World.
Competitiveness, Legislatives Criteria or practices are positively far of the rest in other Continents.

I would recommend in benefit of a better understanding just to " make a comparative international wholesale and final consumer price per KWh".
After that just compare the amount of Companies per Market an the Internationalization of them....

Most probably after that exercise it would be easier to understand the difficulties for obtaining a real fair result for the final power consumers any where..( better possibilities in USA it is definitively clear)

Alberto Escobar

October 18, 2013

The Big Question: Can Countries Reach 100 Percent Renewable Energy?

My name is Alberto Escobar, I´m 76 year old. Y was born in Chile (1937), actually leaving , currently since 1986 in Spain but with four year stage in North America, Germany, Italy and Belgian....
Since 1970 working for my own intending to understand the Development problematic from a Global prospective......
Rationality and fair Play regardless how big it is the individual desire, it is always in a very high dependability of the political and culture scenery related to such or any human being since is borne - including in this culture the full environment ; religions and nature.
International trade and rational or reasonable behave is / or should be the main aim in every individual on earth IF WE ARE REALLY EDUCATED FROM THE VERY BEGINNING OF OUR LIFE IN SUCH DIRECTION ......but any one who read this and follow up regularly the difficulties for reaching transformations which could means a high benefit for the human community any were such as the "sustainability concept" must have clear that without reaching first certain priorities in the prevailing concepts and individual behave it will be difficult to reach a feasible grade of achievements for any society.
Related to power development I believe that most of the people who is related to any identify development ( in this case Power ) knows that :
. The first obstacle or priority in the case of feasibility in a Power Project it is the " Way to become integrated and/or interconnection to the existing Grid .......

Any one who has experience in this subject and specially in an International scope most probably knows that most of the Grids in the world regardless the quality of such grid- in definitive expect to operate in a " fair and reliable operative conditions "......

- Just if we pay attention to the difficulties to reach important targets in USA, (identified until year 2050), one of the most complex it is exactly this one but not as technical complexity, mainly as result of the different companies which had been involved along many years as core business activity going thru complicated " writes of way" , permitting process, special legislations issues and long etc.etc.etc.
The today reality it is different for instance of the European one which since European Union had forced modern and integrated under the same regulatory frame The European power Operative Structure"

Most probably with a very " expensive cost as result " of the historic companies relationships plus a very complicated political background which unfortunately it behave more as a "OLIGOPOLY " between the members in order to preserve their interest in every specific market..
I would recommend related to this subject research as sample Spanish case since 1994 up today .

I believe that in a long range rationality it will impose over individual " excess of money or any power appetite or ambition"....but it will be a permanent need to insist for the community or individuals to follow up.
Personally related to the power experience I did built with a friend a Mini Solar thermic plant for heating water at home in Santiago-Chile in 1965.
I had been Adviser to International Corporations in the Power-waste treatment and Cogeneration Plants.
We had built with our small Engineering a Cogeneration Power Plant with 8,200 KW output and a 6,600 photovoltaic Plant ( 2007-2008) in Spain
Related as Adviser to other Pants and combined cycle.

September 29, 2012

China Gets Serious on Solar Energy

Some times when you had been many years dreaming and fighting for a clear Behave Of the industry and the main goverments rulers in the World promoting a real change toward racionality and soustainability in the Power sector, it is difficult to accept and watch that The share value in the markets it is more important than the real use of the PV or Solar Termic as solución or complementary need in any market when THE KW/H price to the end consumer it is over certain level ......today in many markets around the World the level it is over us0,15 Kw/h.......and at that price any one who knows the sector has the possibility to acces.Feasability should be assured.
It gives the impression that it is more important the Finnancial Marketing than to gain real markets or strategic position......
The. Best sample in PV output, specially considering the average available radiation it is Germany and certainly the worst case it is Spain?Oficial scrockery in prices, incentives and abusive pactices .....but then the Industrial sector it was happy when the overage installed Kw it was over us5.500 and the delivered net kw/h 0.40€ guaranty per at least 20 years-this it was only in 2008-
Today the cost in Us$1.500 an the kw/h Us$0,07......
It is a pity to watch how the reality it is ignored in benefit of Services Business just for lack Of genuine interest in the development problematic.

I

April 11, 2012

Solar Industry Sees More VC Deals, But Total Investment is Down

I believe it is a very interesting and actual article mainly as other evidence that everyday " investment priority in the risk markets it is more based in " just that...to gamble with the risk intending fast and repetitive growth of the capital", that the real meaning of the long term targets of the sector as total or partial solution of the power problematic face to the use of traditional fuels or environment long terms targets ....?
It is evident that the improvements or technological achievements are more important as " a opportune product image to be use to attract the individual stock markets funds"....that the technology value or investment support requirement.
- Globalized stock markets are accelerating the evidence of the Gap between money used in more risky or less risky funds and the real need of that funds for improving the quality of the normal world citizen hopes at the right level.
- Which is the correlation between this evident Gaps and the Lobby sector activities related to the legislation sector any where in the world today?

I believe that this kind of evidences should be also an important matter to think about as conscious member of the human community every day ..

April 11, 2012

Solar Industry Sees More VC Deals, But Total Investment is Down

I believe it is a very interesting and actual article mainly as other evidence that everyday " investment priority in the risk markets it is more based in " just that...to gamble with the risk intending fast and repetitive growth of the capital", that the real meaning of the long term targets of the sector as total or partial solution of the power problematic face to the use of traditional fuels or environment long terms targets ....?
It is evident that the improvements or technological achievements are more important as " a opportune product image to be use to attract the individual stock markets funds"....that the technology value or investment support requirement.
- Globalized stock markets are accelerating the evidence of the Gap between money used in more risky or less risky funds and the real need of that funds for improving the quality of the normal world citizen hopes at the right level.
- Which is the correlation between this evident Gaps and the Lobby sector activities related to the legislation sector any where in the world today?

I believe that this kind of evidences should be also an important matter to think about as conscious member of the human community every day ..

April 06, 2012

Los Angeles Set To Launch a Feed-in Tariff Program

I think that any reference to KWh pricing in renewable energy and his recent evolution ( last 20 years ) of the installed capacity in KW, mainly in Europe -Germany, Italy or Spain leave unfortunately the evidence that THE SPECTACULAR GROWTH OF THE WIND OR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY HAD BEEN MAINLY A BIG PLANNED BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY ORGANIZED BETWEEN THE MONOPOLISTIC STRUCTURES WHICH CONTROL ALL THE POWER ACTIVITY; INCLUDING GRID SYSTEM, DISTRIBUTION, REGULATORY FRAME ORGANIZATIONS- AND THE POLITICIANS .........All the cost had been charged in the consumers receipt since 1994/1997 in the case of spain for instance.
Certainly, cost per Installed KW in photovoltaic based in almost us$8.000 and a " guarantee tariff per at least 20 years of 0,44€kwh " it could not be affordable for any normal society .......almost 11.000 MW were installed in a period of 4 years in Spain.
At that time ( 2004-2008 ) it was almost impossible to buy or obtain photovoltaic panels for less than 3,10 € per watt -therefore, only in the panel, the kilowatt price it was 3.100 € ( the average did reach 3,45 € Watt).....
Today we could buy the same watt per 0,70 € ( to the same supplier )
-¿ could we say that this is the normal market behave in term of offer-demand? , specially when we are referring to a 6 years period of time?
- Just, if you are in the Power Sector, IT IS POSSIBLE TO REALIZE THAT ALL THE BIG PRESSURE IN USA MARKET PER WIND OR PHOTOVOLTAIC ( SOLAR OR TERMIC) DEVELOPMENT START USING THE EUROPEAN MODEL SINCE YEAR 2008 ON.......?
- As curious result of the difficulties per succeeding with that model in the USA market, we can identify the battle per watt prices between American and Chinese or European panels manufacturers when in the reality are almost the same capitals with difference face .
Just i believe it is time to use our individual or collective capacity to analyze we are manipulated or used for the MARKET RULERS INTERNATIONALLY.

April 07, 2012

Los Angeles Set To Launch a Feed-in Tariff Program

I do agree with yr. comment about pushing off nuclear or logically any other power source, and personally we should consider extremely positive in terms of Kyoto or just sustainability and rational behave demonstration.
To understand better the above paragraph it is convenient to remind the concept of " DISTRIBUTED GENERATION " as basic principle in order to reduce the big output of Power Plants, regardless the used fuel, with tremendous losses by energy transport plus environmental damages ( high voltage transport) etc. etc.
Most probably, Germany is the country with the most impressive development of the Power energy - PV specially in the World....this is still more impressive when we consider that just by geographic situation, it has a very low radiation coefficient.
Just as a fact it is interesting to consider that when in Spain the Regulatory frame for promoting the PV Power ( around 2005-2007 until 2008 mainly) became operative, it was based in a tariff of €0,44 per net KWh to the grid with at least a 20 years guarantee for the tariff .( the value it was app. us$0,56 per net KWh) with the previous condition to access the Grid of "specific authorization of the Utility owning the sub station related geographically to the Project", in Germany the price it was 0,32€ per KWh, and in Germany for the private roof installed PV it was a simple administrative procedure which allow automatically with an specific counter to receive input from the Grid during the non production hours and interrupt the input when it was possible to generate based in the available radiation at any time.
I believe that any one of us who could be interested in the rational behave as human being member of a community, to care for the Power and control transferred democratically to the Politicians-Rulers makers of our future...it is our responsibility to avoid abusive practices in order to reach a reasonable predictable future.

Alberto Escobar

Alberto Escobar

Navy School, ( equivalency to industrial Engineering.Chile) 1957/1961 Chilean IBM : 1961/1964 -Formation in IBM and Method superviser in the: Santiago main IBM center service. 1964-1967- Chilean University: Internal Inspection Department...

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