Like before, solar moore's law of 5 years PV drops by 50% in cost. PV will be drien by LED lights invested money, led t.v., oled t.v., lasers, and computer chips where heat, where materials,electricity to light and light to electricity is understood. Fossil fuel prices, pollution (gulf oil spills and fires from oil burnning in middle east), PV will be pulled along with investment in other areas where semiconductors are used, information from the internet. Specifically multi junction is going up in performance and indium/galium nitrides to match the solar spectrum almost perfectly shows a great future for PV. Theoretically 80% conversion possible.
Singularity, moore's law, and solar moore's law seem to be very accurate.
Like before, LED lights I bought for $11.00 are not $.60 and
falling. They save electricity and the technology goes to t.v.,
lasers, computer chips and then P.V. Hydro carbons (oil,gas, coal) of old will be now photo-electronics with Solar Moore's Law
of 5 years half the cost for PV. With transmission costs 35% for
electricity, greed (Calpine energy President retired with $20,000,000), pollution, local power will be the norm.
Remember, solar will follow LED, LED t.v., lasers, chips in
technology and funding and just as the internet saves trees, time, and is now widely used, so will local electric power with fuel cells and high electric bills.
Look up FACTS for the grid to handle small flucuating power from P.V.
Note Japan with loss of nuclear power from the tsunami, oil spills in the gulf, middle east oil wells on fire from Sadam H.
My research says multi junction 3+ using Indium Gallium Nitrides to match light spectrum (almost tailor made for this by nature) are going up in efficiency and hope lower costs. Look at me, I had to get rid of ATT land line service when they charged $5.50
for a one min. phone call and go cellular. I am old and do not like change but money talks, so I went cellular. Post stamps at $ .50 so the internet and e-mail takes over. The same will occur with electricity and P.V. will be the next internet from post office with Solar Moore's Law of 5 years costs come down by half.
Now even tankless water heaters are becoming used on new construction and economics make tearing down old structures or renevating just for utilities economical.
Lots of stupidity, really. I am still supporting my LA subway
where perhaps you can get rid of 3,000,000 automobiles, gas hogs,
and traffic with electric subway. Every seat 60 times turnover in
a day (average 15 min. per rider) and 120 standing. Underground
no stopping for pedestrians. BART in San Francisco also so this
is my energy support. 1997 Moscow moved 3 billion passengers on
subway, that is lots of energy saved from the car.
There are lots and lots of energy projects, ideas, etc. with
oil now at $4.00 / gallon gasoline. I take the subway as much
as I can $.25 per trip. We are working on a H2 car, also.
Calpine energy president (dual cycle gas ) president retired
(I own stock) with $20,000,000 retirement and bankrupt the company. Look at human greed not energy.
Solar Moore's Law of every 5 years solar PV is half the cost with financing from LED, LED t.v., OLED t.v., lasers, and computer chips driving the technology. Do the math from $10,000/watt in 1950 to today. Two, three, and more junction technology with Indium/Gallium Nitrides (very good solar characteristics) will be the future with low prices for solar and fuel cells for night time.
I would like to see vertical axis with funneled wint (much like a sail on a sail boat) to concentrate wind to a smaller turbine. Here you would use concentrated wind to a small turbine (easy to manage) versis large turbines that extract small wind power.
Peter Bradshaw, the problem of storeage and intermitent wind/solar
is more easily solved with grid (large battery) and fuel cells for
when wind is not blowing and no sun. This was proven in Europe so
it works. I use the electric subway here and then do not burn fossil fuel in a car and it is much more cost effective.
I found live/work/bicycle lifestyle, telecommuting, and mass transit are very effective to avoid buring gasoline in a car so
no electric car needed.
Sharp is sharp in intelligence. Televisions like LED, OLED,
computer chips, lasers, led lighing give engineers the edge
for advanced PV. Sharp is in development of this and the
huge market for solar PV is where they want to be. Follow the
Sharp company as solar (solar moore's law of 5 years 1/2 the
price of solar PV electricity) electricity will take over from
fossil fuels. AQMD air quality of L.A. offers free electric lawn
mowers if you trade in gas driven ones. Then electric subway in
L.S. for $.25 fare (senior) you cannot beat electric. Solar
PV, micro turbines, fuel cells, conservation, and hydrogen gas to
store excess power will be the future.
There is liquid thorium as a power heat source I suggest could be
used with geothermal to provide much power not relying only on
geothermal but both in a well. In Japan where nuclear is being
phased out such possibilities would work well if developed.
Heat for homes in cogeneration with the cold weather can make this
source for electricity and heat like Iceland has proved.
I am still staying with Solar Moore's Law of 5 years to cut PV costs by 1/2. Driven by LED, LED t.v., OLED t.v., lasers, chip makers, with PV at the end of the money trail. Subways in L.A. and San Francisco will cut the demand of gasoline, as well as telecommuters (this is telecommuting here), and live work/bicycle when you go to a University with housing on campus and do not drive.