January 18, 2012
3TIER®, a global leader in renewable energy risk analysis, today released a wind performance map for the entire year of 2011. The map illustrates that for the duration of the past year, wind speeds were above their seasonal averages for a majority of the continental United States.
3TIER’s 2011 map shows departures from long-term mean wind speeds that range from -20% to +20% and provides an indication of how wind projects should have performed relative to their long-term production average based on their location. This type of analysis enables financiers and owners to perform portfolio analysis across regions and quickly view the effects of weather anomalies on both existing and proposed investments.
For the year as a whole, the US experienced above average wind speeds, though month-to-month and regional variability were not uniformly above average across the country. The Pacific Northwest and New England saw wind speeds roughly 5% below average for the year, while a broad section of the US from northern Montana to Texas and the mid-Atlantic states enjoyed a strong wind year with wind speeds 5-15% above normal.
The year began with weak La Niña conditions and lackluster wind speeds. However, a stronger La Niña, which occurred later than initially forecasted, combined with a negative Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern led to increased wind speeds throughout the spring. Summer winds were particularly strong in the southern states, where warm and dry conditions continued under a large upper-level ridge that suppressed winds further north. The ridge persisted into September, when the central and eastern US moved back into a more vigorous weather pattern, with frequent frontal passages contributing to higher than normal wind speeds.
By the end of 2011 the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was in a positive phase, associated with lower than normal winds in the western US. The effects of this trend dominated those of the persistent La Niña state in the equatorial Pacific. However, winds were above normal for most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains, except in the northeastern US, where upper-level ridging kept temperatures warm and wind speeds low.
The wind performance map was created by comparing output from 3TIER’s continually updated meteorological dataset with wind conditions averaged over the period 1969-2008 from the same dataset. Wind speed values were computed using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model run at a 15 km resolution and adjusted using available observations. The underlying datasets for 3TIER’s wind performance maps provide clients with operational intelligence for every location within a region and are available in nearly all regions worldwide.
To learn more about 3TIER’s wind performance analysis, please visit www.3tier.com.
3TIER helps the global energy market manage renewable energy risk. A pioneer in wind, solar, and hydro generation risk analysis, 3TIER uses weather science to frame the risk of weather-driven variability – anywhere on earth, across all time horizons. With offices serving North America, Europe, India, Latin America, and the Pacific Rim, 3TIER has global reach with products and services spanning renewable energy project feasibility, energy marketing, and asset management. For more information, visit www.3tier.com.
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