2012 German Nuclear and Gas-Fired Generation Falls Further While Renewables Grow

Paul Gipe, Contributor
March 19, 2013 | 12 Comments

Apparently my article last October documenting the growth of renewables in Germany while nuclear generation continues to decline got under the skin of pro-nuclear bloggers.

So at the request of a reader, I am updating my charts on the electricity mix in Germany from 1990 through 2012. These charts are from public information, easily accessible with rudimentary German.

First, the total mix.

As can be seen, renewables continue their steady increase. No surprises there. Hard coal arrests its decline and there’s a slight uptick in brown coal generation.

Total generation of electricity in Germany remains relatively constant at 617 TWh in 2012.

In 2012 there was a slight uptick in coal-fired generation, mostly from brown coal. Generation from hard coal increased from 112 TWh to 118 TWh, about as much as the 117 TWh produced in 2010. Generation from brown coal increased from 150 TWh in 2011 to 158 TWh in 2012. Total coal-fired generation has increase about 25 TWh from a low of 254 TWh at the height of the Great Recession in 2009.

Despite a steady increase in gas-fired generation from the early 1990s through 2008, generation dropped dramatically in 2012 following a more gradual decline in 2011. Critics of the renewable phase-out have charged that Germany is simply replacing nuclear with gas-fired generation. Apparently that’s not the case. Despite a slight increase in total generation in 2012, gas-fired generation dropped from 83 TWh in 2011 to 70 TWh. Gas-fired generation in Germany is now at the level last recorded in 2005 during the boom years prior to the Great Recession.

Now on to the oft-repeated but never substantiated charge that Germany may be phasing out its nuclear plants but it is just turning around and importing nuclear-generated electricity from France. There was concern that German electricity exports would continue their fall from 2011, but that appears unwarranted. German exports of electricity surged in 2012. Net exports reached 23 TWh in 2012 for nearly 4% of total generation.

German nuclear generation continues to fall. For the first time in at least two decades nuclear generation fell below 100 TWh. Nuclear generation is now well below generation by new renewables (wind, solar, and biomass).

Total renewable generation grew steadily to about 135 TWh, 35 TWh more than that from nuclear generation. Total renewable generation includes existing hydro about 20 TWh per year depending upon rainfall.

New renewable generation continued its remarkable growth in Germany in 2012, reaching nearly 115 TWh. Most growth has taken place since the country introduced a modern system of feed-in tariffs in the year 2000. New renewables now compares with the generation from hard coal and exceeds that from natural gas, nuclear, oil, and existing hydro.

Solar photovoltaics (solar PV) continued its meteoric growth in 2012. Solar PV generated 29 TWh in 2012 or nearly 5% of total generation. Wind accounted for a little more than 7% of generation and biomass provided nearly 6% of generation.

Renewable generation provided nearly 22% of total generation in 2012. Within a few years, renewables will account for one-fourth of all German electricity generation. New renewables accounted for nearly 19% of total German generation in 2012.

These comparisons are based on total generation and may not compare to other reports comparing the contribution of renewables to electricity consumption, 594 TWh.

12 Comments

Dennis Heidner
March 21, 2013

Yes, many Germans are willing to pay more for electricity so long as it isn't coming from nuclear. I was actually told that by several friends. And there was some dismay on their part that Germany would import power from France while shutting down their plants.

My interest in the discussions with them was really to understand the customer and electric markets. I was honestly surprised to here the strong dislike of nuclear by many Germans.

I also understand the concern about CO2, I have it also. And I know that in my discussions with various in Germany - there were lots of - "experts" that thought coal use was declining in 2012. I had already seen the numbers weeks before and argued with them about the switch to more coal use. In the end, after sitting through weeks of meetings and conferences and following some real deep diving since getting back. I understand that most of the important political players also know what is happening, but it takes time to safely move from one energy source to the next. Germany will move their production to more renewables - but it will take time. During the shift -- more coal may be used at times AND nuclear plants may stay on line for a few more years. But the shift is on...

Cliff Claven
March 21, 2013

So you are saying that Germans would pay even more for electricity if not for cheap nuclear power from France. Excellent point. BTW, all the Kyoto treaty CO2 reductions of the rest of Europe got totally blown away by Germany and Japan's increased emissions last year. Paying more money to burn more coal and put more CO2 into the atmosphere--that's the trifecta of stupidity.

Dennis Heidner
March 21, 2013

Cliff-claven, you could pose the same question about the nuclear plants across the border from Germany -- what happens to the energy from those plants when Germans are not buying because their needs are met and France has excess power on the open market. The answer of course if France is then selling power below the cost to produce.

You have to step back and look at the grid infrastructure, accept that the utilities and engineers that live in Germany do indeed have a vested interest and understand what they are doing. And recognize it is the right of a citizens to ask their leaders to make policies for their energy use. The German populace has done it. There are twenty or thirty years of energy plans and how the country is going to re-invent itself on the German government websites. The move to renewables -- despite your arguments -- and this years increase in coal, is in line with their long term goals.

FWIW, even with the increased coal use - they are on target to meet their Kyoto treaty obligations.

Will they shuffle the mixture of renewables, fossil fuels, and nuclear in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Certainly! And if as new technologies become available - what ever they are -- I would expect that they will be looked at and adapted also.

When you look at their long term energy plans - the goal is CO2 neutral. It is for a diverse energy mixture. The only "absolutely no" that I've heard or seen for nuclear is the current designs of high pressure reactors. Like the US, Germany is also contributing to fusion (expensive) research AND they do have other nuclear research projects underway. But the current citizens would fight any new nuclear plants based on the current commercial designs. That I know from talking with many Germans -- from many walks of life. Germans do not like nuclear. For them coal is the lessor of two evils. We may disagree with that, but as a sovereign nation it is their choice.

Cliff Claven
March 21, 2013

In 2007 the stunning news was that Germany was closing its coal mines. As of 2011, Germany is now the world's leading producer of brown coal at 176Mt per year. The more intermittent "renewables" are forced onto the power grid, the more fossil fuel gets burned for back-up generation to keep the grid stable.

Nobody has still answered the question of at what rate does Germany sell the excess power it is forced to take from renewables when they overproduce. Hint, it is sold at a loss.

Again, Germany is a great example for the world--of what not to do.

Dennis Heidner
March 21, 2013

Yes, but remember to look at the industrial rates. The power for industry also comes from wind and solar.

The residential rates are more an indication of the cost for the local residential distribution system AND societal efforts to push citizens to use less energy. After traveling abroad to Asia and Europe, including six weeks in Germany last fall - that push to use less or pay more is very evident.

Cliff Claven
March 21, 2013

Dennis H.: thanks for that link. The chart on page 29 is very informative. The Danes with their extreme wind fetish and the Germans with their extreme solar fetish are paying by far the highest residential electrical rates on the entire continent (33 Ecents and 28 Ecents per kWh respectively). Citizens pay the price for the follies of the politicians they elect. Perhaps Paul Gipe will add that chart to his presentation above. And the irony of German coal use (lignite!) being up 8% in just this past year is both comical and tragic. Somebody has to be the example of what not to do. In the arena of electrical power production it is currently Germany, Denmark, and Japan contending for this ignominious lead. I'll give the edge to Japan though for rejecting GE's advice and insisting on putting the back-up generators for their coastal nuclear power plants in the basement. Where do we get such men?

Dennis Heidner
March 21, 2013

"Anonymous",

The German electric rates have always been higher than in the US. The price for gasoline has also been higher. It is not the renewable only that are forcing up the price of electricity. In fact when you look at the numbers over all the large supply of renewable energies is starting to force the electric rates down.

When you compare prices of electricity in the US against German rates, you remember we have quite a bit of hydro in the US that runs in the $0.02-$0.03 price range. Germany has far less hydro. Even so we do have regions in the US where the electric rates equal or are higher than the German rates, Hawaii for example. The north east states have rates that are closer to German and not the low cost hydro rates.

In addition to shutting down nuclear plants, they have been taking some of the natural gas plant offline (bad choice I think)and using the coal instead.

But on coal you have to really understand that even that is a temporary use. The are aggressively working to get storage, more diverse mixture of renewables online so that they can go back to the reduction of coal. They have also been pushing to REDUCE the emissions and IMPROVE the plant efficiencies that they do have.

I think we will see their use of coal for base loads to begin dropping signficantly in the next year or two. Even as the nuclear plants shutdown.

As for the nuclear plants, the 2022 date was selected because that is the end of their "safe" designed life. Most of their plants were also built around the 70's and they are getting old.

Dennis Heidner
March 21, 2013

Cliff, any one can look at the energy markets in the European Union, see the sources of energy, trends, flows between countries. The link is:

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/electricity/doc/qreem_2012_quarter3.pdf

There are TWO parts when you look at the rates. The residential rate of which Germany has one of the highest. And the industrial rate - Germany's is middle of the pack - lower then many of its peers. The higher residential rates reflect some of the German social priorities and policies -- trying to drive down consumption and pay for other programs using energy costs.

The industrial rate is much closer to the deliverable costs on the tramsmission lines.

Cliff Claven
March 21, 2013

Paul Gipe, please include graphs showing how the retail and wholesale costs of electricity for Germany have changed for the same time periods including all the associated taxes and surcharges. Also add a graph showing what Germany charges its neighbors for all the electricity it is forced to export at deep discounts. Despite the omissions in your title and in your text, I'm sure you want folks to know all the facts about the costs and consequences of the energiewende.

ANONYMOUS
March 20, 2013

Dennis writes in comment #2:
"...there is nothing reckless about the German transition off of nuclear and fossil fuels."

I suppose, on very technical grounds, his statement about the latter is correct, merely because there is NO transition off of fossil fuels. Their push to greater coal usage is sending a terrible signal to the rest of the world suggesting that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not a serious concern. There massive FIT subsidies for solar power caused a calamitous boom and bust cycle in the PV industry and pushed their electricity prices up so that they are now 3-4 times the US mean price. Now they are closing down safe, clean, and paid-for nuclear reactors before their rated lifetimes are exceeded and they are even shuttering new natural gas facilities in favor of using highly-polluting lignite. Top-down control of markets is inherently inefficient, but Larry, Curly, and Moe could have done a better job then Germany's current set of leaders is doing.
Steven

Dennis Heidner
March 20, 2013

Steven, there is nothing reckless about the German transition off of nuclear and fossil fuels. It is pretty carefully planned. The increase in coal use occurred because after the Fukushima accident the German public and government decided it was important to phase out the nuclear plants first. They make up the difference with renewables and some coal.

Now about the coal, Germany is shutting down old coal plants and when required - replacing them with newer supercritical plants. That makes a big difference on the emissions and efficiency of the plants. They also have developed coal plants that can spin up to power much more quickly like natural gas topping plants. AND they still have very active research into carbon capture from the plants.

The bad news -- much of the coal in Germany is lignite - it isn't a clean coal, and it is under villages that must be razed. Germany is phasing out nuclear by 2022 and they are trying to stop the mining of coal sometime before 2020. That means to meet the energy needs that coal provides - they will be importing coal - often from the United States and Columbia.

One of the areas that Germany hasn't tapped into as much as they could is... additional energy efficiency and conservation. Yes, they have programs promoting it. But when you walk the streets at night and see the all the high pressure discharge lights, the incandescent lights, the old HVAC systems, old process motors... it is quite apparent that there still remains significant opportunities to reduce energy consumption across Germany.

ANONYMOUS
March 20, 2013

The title omits one of the most important trends: the increased used of coal instead of cleaner fuels (nuclear and natural gas). The German electricity policies are both environmentally and fiscally reckless!
Steven

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Paul Gipe

Paul Gipe has written extensively about renewable energy for both the popular and trade press. He has also lectured widely on wind energy and how to minimize its impact on the environment and the communities of which it is a part. For his...