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Cape Wind: Regulation, Litigation and the Struggle to Develop Offshore Wind Power in the U.S.

Tom Zeller Jr, Contributor
February 28, 2013  |  73 Comments

That has done very little to speed the permitting process or to dissuade the very real passions of Parker and her supporters.

All but one of the legal challenges that the alliance and its allied groups have thus far filed have been rejected by the courts. The one success — challenging the Federal Aviation Administration's finding that the project would not impede air traffic — forced the agency to revisit its review in 2011. On Aug. 15, 2012, the FAA once againcame to the same conclusion:

"The proposed construction of the 130 wind turbines, individually and as a group, has no effect on aeronautical operations. Therefore, the FAA concludes that the project, if constructed as proposed, poses no hazard to air navigation."

A challenge to that finding was filed seven days later and is now pending.

"This is personal for me, too, but it's not — what do we have to gain here?" Parker said. "We're just trying to protect the community and the people that live here.

"I've dedicated a decade of my life for this fight," she added. "People believe in this."

Asked if she and her partners could imagine a moment when they might throw in the towel on this fight, Parker doesn't hesitate.

"Yes," she replied. "When we win."

Improving the Process

Department of Energy data on the potential of offshore wind in the U.S. is impressive. It suggests that as much as 4 million megawatts of electricity could be harnessed from the steady breezes blowing on state and federal waters along the coasts of the U.S., as well as in the Great Lakes. That's roughly four times the combined generating capacity of all existing electric power plants in the nation today, according to DOE — and the Obama administration has made it a mission to finally get the industry moving.

Several commercial wind farm proposals or incentive programs — off the coasts of Maine, New Jersey, Delaware and elsewhere — have since joined Cape Wind and are now vying to be the first to become operational, but the odds that any of them will overcome the necessary hurdles during the president's second term are hard to predict.

To help expedite matters, DOE in December announced some $168 million in funding over the next six years for seven offshore demonstration projects. And that funding came on the heels of the Department of Interior's first-ever plans to open up some 164,000 acres along the Atlantic coast for lease sales to commercial offshore wind power developers.

The move is part of the Obama administration's "Smart from the Start" program, launched in 2010 — not long after final federal approval for Cape Wind was issued — and is designed to speed offshore wind power development off the Atlantic Coast. "The Cape Wind lease is an historic milestone in America's renewable energy future, but to fully harness the economic and energy benefits of our nation's vast Atlantic wind potential we need to implement a smart permitting process that is efficient, thorough, and unburdened by needless red tape," Salazar said at the time.

But that program would only help to speed up leasing for offshore wind. In most cases, projects would still need to undergo a full environmental review — and the agonizingly protracted scoping and litigation that so often comes with it.

"I was very happy to see it," said Duffy, the attorney and vice president of the Cape Wind project, referring to the Smart from the Start program. "But it doesn't address the conflicting positions of different agencies or the possibility of multiple agency appeals, perhaps even in different courts. It still doesn’t put a time limit on things."

Reform advocates at Common Good have pointed to other countries with flourishing renewable energy industries, including Great Britain, Denmark and Germany, where processes for regulating and permitting clean energy projects were designed in many cases from the ground up. These so-called one-stop shop systems identify a single government agency as the designated handler of renewable project permitting, and as the sole interface between developers and the government. Strict timelines are in place for reviewing the impacts and considering alternatives, and an ample but clearly defined window for public input and court challenges keeps proposals from becoming bogged down in endless litigation.

Matthew Brown, the Common Good attorney, also notes that in many cases a dedicated administrative court with specialized knowledge of renewable project technology and permitting issues is in place to handle disputes.

"We already have a variety of specialized courts, like bankruptcy court and international trade court," Brown said. "New York City diamond dealers are signed into an informal court system that deals with commercial disputes between diamond dealers. In other countries, challenges to infrastructure projects — these would not go to a court of general jurisdiction, they would go to a court that is very keyed in to the issues — and able to rule more quickly."

Jim Maxeiner, an associate professor of law at the University of Baltimore and an associate director of the school's Center for International and Comparative Law, suggested in an email message that a project like Cape Wind would have been permitted and built far faster in Germany. "Under the German law that prevailed before 2012, two to three years was typical time from initial application to approval, although some applications took as long as six years," Maxeiner noted. "Ten years was unheard of — and in January of this year the law was amended to expedite approvals. I have not seen target times, but I surmise that the idea is to have resolution within one to two years."

Philip K. Howard, the founder of Common Good and the author of several books on the need to simplify regulatory processes in the U.S., has called for a similar "infrastructure super-authority" here. Such a body, Howard recently wrote, would be "created with the mandate to approve certain new projects within one year of application — including roads, bridges, wind and solar farms, and power lines. For interstate projects, the super-authority should have the power to cut through federal, state, and local red tape. Judicial review should be limited to jurisdictional issues, and should be resolved in the timeframe of a preliminary injunction — no more than 60 days."

Despite protestations from a variety of environmental groups, a bill aimed at significantly speeding up the impact review for proposed transportation projects was signed into law in the U.S. last year. Among other things, it calls for smaller projects receiving less than $5 million in federal funds to be excluded from environmental review all together.

But even those calling for infrastructure permitting reform often say the problem isn't necessarily environmental law as written, but the way in which it is implemented. "Proposals for environmental streamlining originating in Congress often overlook opportunities to overhaul policies and procedures within the current legal framework for environmental review," said Petra Todorovich, director of RPA's America 2050 program, in a statement accompanying the "Getting Infrastructure Going" report. "Contrary to current thinking, our study found that more federal involvement, not less, tends to speed up environmental reviews of major projects."

Whatever the solution, it will need to be found quickly if the nation hopes to address the growing climate crisis in a serious way. In its 2011 climate assessment, the National Research Council stated that the nation must cut greenhouse emissions by 80 percent by 2050 merely to stabilize the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. The electricity sector accounts for a third of such emissions, and most experts believe the necessary reductions simply cannot be achieved without a swift transition to cleaner sources of power.

"Our existing environmental laws and regulatory processes no longer achieve their underlying goals of long-term ecosystem conservation," wrote Thaler, the law professor at the University of Maine. "To the contrary, these laws and regulations are supporting a system with increasing greenhouse gas emissions that is actually costing trillions of dollars."

Now that the permits have been obtained and at least two-thirds of the wind farm's output has been purchased under contract, Jim Gordon and his partners are busy seeking financing for Cape Wind. They won't comment on how much it will cost in the end, though estimates typically run between $1 billion and $2 billion. Gordon suggested in a recent phone call that he anticipated having turbines in the water by 2015.

That might still be optimistic. Grid managers have suggested that it could take longer, and in any case, more legal action remains a possibility.

"If I knew from the very beginning that it would take 12 years and cost as much as it did, I would have had to think very long and hard about accepting that challenge," Gordon said. "I've spent 36 years of my life developing energy projects, and our mission has been trying to improve the efficiency and improve the environmental attributes of these types of projects. I was really devoted to trying to contribute to helping transition to a cleaner energy future.

"I am where I am. I can't look back," he added. "I don't know what I would have said 12 years ago because I'm a different person. I'm older. In some ways I'm wiser; in some ways I'm not wiser. At the end of the day, I think this is a very important project."

This article was originally published on The Huffington Post and was republished with permission.

Lead image: Offshore wind via Shutterstock

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73 Comments

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Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 15, 2013
Gary, glad you tried to read up. But, you're again embroidering madly -- I never said anything about nukes doing "80%" of world power.

They could, but I never said that, because I advocate local solar PV/Hot-water, which can do over 1/2, along with efficient storage.
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 15, 2013
You make lots of assumptions Dr.Misinformation

I did go to your link and watched the video by a Honeywell rep on manufacturing nuke plants modularly in house to cut manufacturing costs in half and I'm aware of the actinide and other high-level waste burning reductions that can be had to leave waste that has only half lives in the hundreds.

However, the cost is so expensive, the verification of these claims will take a very long time, and the scope of nuclear deaths only cover acute deaths accurately but leave information on chronic deaths in a cloud of uncertainty that leaves the legislature's hands tied to really categorize any particular cancer or other disease factored by worker/down-wind exposure.
I think some nuke plants are necessary (20-40% depending on space program implementation) to make a well balanced supply of energy resources. I just don't agree with what I remember you saying that nuke should supply most of our power (80%?).
More later...
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 14, 2013
Cliff, it's just so encouraging to see someone aggressively supporting non-emitting power.
;]
Now if only they'd had an accident and someone died -- that would really get a smile on your face, eh Cliff?
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 14, 2013
More bad news for Dr. Misinformation:

Calvert Cliffs 3 nuclear power plant license denied again
http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2013/03/calvert-cliffs-3-nuclear-power-plant-license-denied-again.html

"Plans for a third reactor at Maryland's sole nuclear power site were submitted in 2008 by Unistar when the company was jointly owned by US corporation Constellation Energy and French owned Electricite de France (EDF). However, in October 2010, the CC3 project suffered a serious set-back when Constellation withdrew from negotiations for a $7.5 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. federal government to fund the nearly $9.6 billion undertaking."

Apparently no one in their right mind wants to invest in these white elephants. The economics of wind are so much better and the risks are so much lower. Indeed, for that $9.6 billion this plant would have cost, Unistar could buy and install 2,000 4MW wind turbines that would generate way more electricity without all the risk and the 10,000-year radioactive disposal headache.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 14, 2013
Gary, Gary, Gary, it ain't my "point of view", it's just facts. You don't like it. You don't understand the science & engineering, and you don't bother to study, so I simply welcome the opportunities you provide to pass facts on to others here, like (avert your eyes, Gary :)...

Nuclear's unmatched safety...
W. Krewitt et al. "Risk Analysis"
http colonslashslash manhaz dot cyf dot gov dot pl/manhaz/szkola/materials/S3/psi_materials/ENSAD98 dot pdf

Wind's miserable inefficiency...
www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 14, 2013
Gary, Gary, Gary, it ain't my "point of view", it's just facts. You don't like it. You don't understand the science & engineering, and you don't bother to study, so I simply welcome the opportunities you provide to pass facts on to others here, like (avert your eyes, Gary :)...

Nuclear's unmatched safety...
W. Krewitt et al. "Risk Analysis"
http colonslashslash manhaz.cyf.gov.pl/manhaz/szkola/materials/S3/psi_materials/ENSAD98.pdf

Wind's miserable inefficiency...
www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 14, 2013
Gary, Gary, Gary, it ain't my "point of view", it's just facts. You don't like it. You don't understand the science & engineering, and you don't bother to study, so I simply welcome the opportunities you provide to pass facts on to others here, like (avert your eyes, Gary :)...

Nuclear's unmatched safety...
W. Krewitt et al. "Risk Analysis"
http://manhaz.cyf.gov.pl/manhaz/szkola/materials/S3/psi_materials/ENSAD98.pdf

Wind's miserable inefficiency...
www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 14, 2013
Unless wind claims are proven false, I'll continue to hold the mirror to your POV.
;]
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 13, 2013
The off-peak discount driven by over-production of wind is a good incentive for manufacturers willing to perform load-matching output to drive down costs of their products or increase their margins. This may also be beneficial to the coal industry that may want the cheap power to offset clean-coal costs by processing near wind farms.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 13, 2013
Gary, what else would we expect from you?
;]
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 13, 2013
"Wind pummels prices..." LaLaLa I can't hear you
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 13, 2013
Wrong! Wind is replacing other sources and added capacity is part of the costs of growth that is going to happen anyway. Besides, trying to go to distributed power will force utilities to charge connection fees to maintain their revenue levels and raise everyone's costs.
Fine, you can stick your head in the sand and pretend that wind has a significant impact on wind capacity while other forms of construction does not. At least I know that I look at both sides of the equation.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 13, 2013
Yes, Cliff, we in the US have done, and still do, dumb things. Windmills are just one example.
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 13, 2013
@ Comment 48,

"Guess what, we;'re not driving windmills down the road instead of cars and we're not driving more cars and planes than needed for the current population. So the honest appraisal of any power source's safety has nothing to do with non-power systems. It has to do with comparative injuries & deaths across power generation systems. How about studying some reality: http://tinyurl.com/42wvr9l"

Considering that electric vehicles will most likely play a role in absorbing excess capacity from wind or nuclear, the safety of the technology should be weighed for it's impact.


Please try to isolate links so they are easier to copy and paste to the address bar.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 13, 2013
Nuclear Industry Withers in U.S. as Wind Pummels Prices http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/nuclear-industry-withers-in-u-s-as-wind-pummels-prices-energy.html?goback=.gde_3834799_member_221671446

As is typical of Bloomberg news, the article tries to put renewables in as bad a light as possible, however, the numbers speak for them selves - as does the headline. In the present context the article offers a compelling list of reasons why a Nuke Nut like Dr. Misinformation so hates wind. He even wants to restrict PV to rooftops - its least economical form. Such a transparent personal agenda.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 12, 2013
Interesting ideas, Lee, but the key for the environment will always be power density.

That's why every renewable 'farm' fails -- only local solar on existing structures meets the environmental need for low impact. And, only nuclear meets the overall need of about 1,000,000 times the power density of any fuelled systems -- make a fist -- that amount of Uranium runs NY City or Tokyo or London for about an hour. Only fusion beats that.
.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 12, 2013
Gary, you really do stretch, such as with:

"The key factor to look at is that the turbine SHARES the grid and Demand Side Participation is not proven to be absolutely burdensome "

You again show you're no engineer or scientist. In Calif. it's very important to get 'renewables' onto the grid right, both for energy loss and cost. So, if you understood the "grid", you'd know that putting up a wind/solar 'farm' somewhere is only part of the problem. If, for instance, the transmission into the main grid loads needs to be upgraded to handle the extra power, it adds cost to EROI and that cost is higher the more variable the source type and location. Power loss goes up as the square of the line current, so adding an equal source to a grid path requires doubling the line size, if the source were 24/7. Wind is not, so there's a cost/loss tradeoff, which pushes the wind/solar 'farm' to lower efficiency, cutting EROI, even in the simplistic way investors love.

As o your last remarks, no one's building skyscrapers & windmills together, so your comments re the Harvard study are simply lame.

However, local solar indeed does go with skyscrapers, as a LIDAR survey of NYC explained a couple of years back -- NY can get ~1/2 its peak summer load from rooftop solar, and there are lots of folks & machines per NYC rooftop...
www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/science/earth/16solar.html?_r=1&emc=eta1

:]
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 12, 2013
Did you read the articles DrA?
I wouldn't just skim the headers and assume that there was significant content to support my claim.

Afterall, the primary supporting arguement is how atmospheric drag causes a four fold reduction in wind capacity. You don't think that skyscrapers have as much, if not more, than drag created by wind? The point I make is mutually inclusive to countering their arguement.


www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/

You don't want to assume a statement is true just because someone with status-power says so!
lee nhan
lee nhan
March 12, 2013
I had a complete solution for energy but difficult to access .I'm should I do to develop it details www.trongdong.weebly.com
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 12, 2013
@ comment 48,
OD systems and smart grid are not necessarily an expense burdened by wind exclusively and so the potential to distribute this cost is up to the ingenuity of those implementing it. The key factor to look at is that the turbine SHARES the grid and Demand Side Participation is not proven to be absolutely burdensome with no hope of complementing wind.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
Gary, you should be on stage! This is hilarious: "Did these same guys try to input the skyscraper boom in China "

Are we talking about buildings or power sources?

I thought we were comparing power sources. Silly me. Of course, China is indeed planting forests and building cities and power plants. Do you have a point? Or, maybe this just a joke, like JAy Leno's game for dummies: "Point. what's your point?"
;]
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
To save space, here are two of you other gems, Gary:

"Good thing insurance companies aren't as scared to insure against these compared to the stance taken with nuclear."

So wind farms do kill and injure regularly. They do incur liabilities that insurers must cover regularly, while Us and other western nukes haven't incurred such injuries or deaths in civilkina power.

Sinc einsurers collect premiums and don't want to pay out claims, nuclear looks far better than any other power source, from theri standpooint, regardless of legiclation. Maritime insurers for Cape Wind will have interesting things to say.

Then you try to counter the Dane's growing unhappiness with windmills by copying the reported figure of latest installations having "41%" CF. Wow. Yes, lots better than <30%. But again, Gary, where's the remaining 59% coming from? And, if it's partly Euro nuclear, well...hope none is German coal. Even if it's all nuke/hydro makeup, that displacement itself is made up for by Euro combustion. Oops.
;]
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
Missed this one, Gary: "But in the meantime, wind resources can be 100% reused or recycled if necessary" -- really?

Ever been to Kern County Calif?

Thought not.

Ever tried to "recycle" a 1000 cubic-yard concrete & steel foundation of 1 windmill?

Thought not.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
Aaahhh the desperation is showing now, insn't it Gary?!

"The roll-out of smart grids and demand-side
participation can lead to peak-shaving, whereby load
curves progressively flatten and differences between days
and nights are minimised to the point of disappearing
in the longer run. As a consequence, the demand for
balancing the requested load changes will become less
relevant."

So a cost of wind's large variability is the need for "smart grid" construction and addition od systems that "flatten" the appearance of wind's variability to demands. Exactly what I said. Remember Gary?

Those design and implementation costs aren't included in wind's EROI, and they aren't deducted from subsidies to wind investors. So thanks again fro providing backup to the facts I raised that show wind EROIs to be fibs at best. It's really cute to blame the loads for changing rather than wind's unavoidable variability.

Then there's this desperate absurdity...

"As far as deaths go, deaths from car accidents, planes, trains, etc... I'm sure has higher numbers..."

Guess what, we;'re not driving windmills down the road instead of cars and we're not driving more cars and planes than needed for the current population. So the honest appraisal of any power source's safety has nothing to do with non-power systems. It has to do with comparative injuries & deaths across power generation systems. How about studying some reality: http colonslashslash tinyurl dot com/42wvr9l

But keep trying, Gary. You certainly help bring out the need for facts to counter your misinformation & bias.
;]
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
Aaahhh the desperation is showing now, insn't it Gary?!

"The roll-out of smart grids and demand-side
participation can lead to peak-shaving, whereby load
curves progressively flatten and differences between days
and nights are minimised to the point of disappearing
in the longer run. As a consequence, the demand for
balancing the requested load changes will become less
relevant."

So a cost of wind's large variability is the need for "smart grid" construction and addition od systems that "flatten" the appearance of wind's variability to demands. Exactly what I said. Remember Gary?

Those design and implementation costs aren't included in wind's EROI, and they aren't deducted from subsidies to wind investors. So thanks again fro providing backup to the facts I raised that show wind EROIs to be fibs at best. It's really cute to blame the loads for changing rather than wind's unavoidable variability.

Then there's this desperate absurdity...

"As far as deaths go, deaths from car accidents, planes, trains, etc... I'm sure has higher numbers..."

Guess what, we;'re not driving windmills down the road instead of cars and we're not driving more cars and planes than needed for the current population. So the honest appraisal of any power source's safety has nothing to do with non-power systems. It has to do with comparative injuries & deaths across power generation systems. How about studying some reality: http://tinyurl.com/42wvr9l

But keep trying, Gary. You certainly help bring out the need for facts to counter your misinformation & bias.
;]
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 10, 2013
Aaahhh the desperation is showing now, insn't it Gary?!

"The roll-out of smart grids and demand-side
participation can lead to peak-shaving, whereby load
curves progressively flatten and differences between days
and nights are minimised to the point of disappearing
in the longer run. As a consequence, the demand for
balancing the requested load changes will become less
relevant."

So a cost of wind's large variability is the need for "smart grid" construction and addition od systems that "flatten" the appearance of wind's variability to demands. Exactly what I said. Remember Gary?

Those design and implementation costs aren't included in wind's EROI, and they aren't deducted from subsidies to wind investors. So thanks again fro providing backup to the facts I raised that show wind EROIs to be fibs at best. It's really cute to blame the loads for changing rather than wind's unavoidable variability.

Then there's this desperate absurdity...

"As far as deaths go, deaths from car accidents, planes, trains, etc... I'm sure has higher numbers..."

Guess what, we;'re not driving windmills down the road instead of cars and we're not driving more cars and planes than needed for the current population. So the honest appraisal of any power source's safety has nothing to do with non-power systems. It has to do with comparative injuries & deaths across power generation systems. How about studying some reality: http://tinyurl.com/42wvr9l

But keep trying, Gary. You certainly help bring out the need for facts to counter your misinformation & bias.
;]
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 9, 2013
@ comment 32,

"Back to Dr. Cliff and "Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) ratio." -- remember, Cliff, the EROI never includes the backup power or grid management required to level the ultimate energy delivered, it doesn't include the cost of energy wasted in transmission to loads, and it doesn't even include the deaths & injuries to people, not just bats, birds, etc... www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
www.inquisitr.com/18588/wind-power-causes-more-deaths-than-nuclear-power/

So what was that again about wind's EROI, Cliff? What's a worker worth?"


On the costs of including back up power, grid management, distribution, not being included in EROEI calculations.....

Alot of these costs depend on strategies implemented to "pay off" a perticular technology.

On page 22 of this report,

http://www.eurelectric.org/media/61388/flexibility_report_final-2011-102-0003-01-e.pdf

"Firstly, one has to distinguish between demand-driven
fluctuations and generation-driven fluctuations. Demand-driven
fluctuations are made up of the sum of the
behaviour of individual consumers and determine the
load curve. The roll-out of smart grids and demand-side
participation can lead to peak-shaving, whereby load
curves progressively flatten and differences between days
and nights are minimised to the point of disappearing
in the longer run. As a consequence, the demand for
balancing the requested load changes will become less
relevant."

It is this demand-side participation that is the most interesting part and drives down the cost of wind the quickest.

As far as deaths go, deaths from car accidents, planes, trains, etc... I'm sure has higher numbers.....
Better stay home and lock your doors..........
It would be certainly unacceptable to accept another energy source with higher deaths while complaining about one with lower deaths, right?
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 9, 2013
Gary, thanks for those links.

By the way, when quoting easily the refutable statements of others it's best to attribute them and put them in quotes lest the reader dismiss you prematurely as uninformed.
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 9, 2013
Comment 26,

"Your 1-nuke-equivalent wind farm needed 2000 x 5000 x 5 = 50 million tons of materials just to have a peak rating equal to one nuke.

Good work, Cliff. I could hardly have shown the wastefulness of wind any better.

But wait, just like those TV ads, there's more -- the 68,000 tons of US 'spent' fuel isn't "spent", as the French have long known -- they don't waste things as easily as you. So they recycle the fuel, meaning >90% is reused. Here, see what we are planning in the US to have an equally sane, future policy..."

Good, and I hope it eventually gets up to 100%

But in the meantime, wind resources can be 100% reused or recycled if necessary.
Better still, make them last longer and upgradeable!
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 9, 2013
Up at comment 24,

"One of these days, Bob, you'll see how silly your wind fetish is.

The Danes aren't especially happy either...
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/7996606/An-ill-wind-blows-for-Denmarks-green-energy-revolution.html

And the figures I quoted of <30% capacity over 9 years to 2012 were available to you earlier here. The report is public. Having talked personally with the nice Danish lady in charge of their renewables last Spring, I can confirm what you don't want to believe. But you can do it for yourself, if you care about facts.



I did some resarch on the first link above and found that despite the negative sentiment found and acknowledged by Dong Energy, I also noticed that they had this to say,

"Last month, unnoticed in the UK, Denmark's giant state-owned power company, Dong Energy, announced that it would abandon future onshore wind farms in the country. "Every time we were building onshore, the public reacts in a negative way and we had a lot of criticism from neighbours," said a spokesman for the company. "Now we are putting all our efforts into offshore windfarms.""

Additionally, I went to Dong's Annual Report's Management Review for 2012 that contradicts many of the wind naysayer's comments. Especially interesting is what is said in the 2nd paragraph of page 18,

http://www.dongenergy.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/investor/annual_report/2012/DONG_Energy_Annual_Report_Management_review_EN.pdf

"Increasing generation from wind turbines was
also instrumental in pushing prices down."

They also mentioned that they averaged 41% load factor in 2012 (page 8).
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 9, 2013
In response to,

If one wanted to find a way of wasting large amounts of resources, fuel and power, forever, windmills are hard to beat.
;]
They are good for stunning humor though...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5PPBGsoQMM&feature=endscreen&NR=1
www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9837026/Wind-turbine-collapses-in-high-wind.html
http://tinyurl.com/bl9vlc7 (personal favorite)

Maybe not returning value for their subsidies though.


Good thing insurance companies aren't as scared to insure against these compared to the stance taken with nuclear.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price-Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act

Besides, I think these wealthy protesters may be holding out for American Superoonductor to finish preparation for their 10MW designs.

Once paid for, and that's what would happen very quickly with a $0.22/KW/hr subsidy, the cost of that wind dramatically drops down and is as cheap if not cheaper than Hydro. Especially considering the potential to require +100 year foundation design and 100% height upgrade capacity if included in the deal.
Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
March 9, 2013
In regards to these two postings,

We note you apparently ignored the Harvard study (hey, they're in MA too!)...

www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/

I guess we better not replace all the trees and foliage that have been destroyed to produce more hamburgers, etc...
Because the wind might come to a halt if we replant them!

Same with skyscrapers in Asia, maybe better to build down instead of up.

Did these same guys try to input the skyscraper boom in China and elsewhere over tha last decade and see what impact those buildings have on our environment? Does it match their predictions? I doubt it.

I wonder how much drag was removed when Mt. St Helens blew.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 7, 2013
BobW says: "It's time for me to turn off this thread and let you babble on."

And then Bob "babbles on" --

"BTW, there is no database for lives lost during nuclear reactor construction or operation that is the equivalent of lives lost during wind farm construction and operation, so we really can't compare fatalities."

This is a good one, Bob! You think OSHA and all the other agencies involved in any construction of any sort don't keep records of injuries & deaths? You really think that, Bob?

Tell you what, do some real research for a change and say find W. Krewitt's "Risk Analysis", it has updated volumes and is referenced on DoE's website.

But Bob, remember, convincing you of anything isn't a goal. I simply enjoy the opportunities you create to allow others to see your misinformation and maybe get some accurate info.
;]
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 7, 2013
Cliff is upset: "All commenters here start out on an equal footing. Credibility must be earned." -- but we agree here, Cliff, until the comments diverge from fact, as yours often have.

Now your upset brings you to: "Do not include me in the short list of small minds that attempt to gain intellectual credibility by adding the "Dr" prefix or the "PhD" suffix to their names" -- I used "Dr." for you, Cliff, because your words were much like those you describe coming from "small minds".

You've confirmed for all here that you're not an honest broker of scientific or engineering info. Doesn't make me happy, for sure.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 7, 2013
BobW, you still seem oddly uinable to read the links you put up. Thanks for the EIA link, because it shows...

Table 1, $/MWHr: CF Cost O&M +Fuel Xmission Total

Advanced Nuclear 90 87.5 11.3 11.6 1.1 111.4

Non-Dispatchable Technologies
Wind 33 82.5 9.8 0.0 3.8 96.0

Note that cost of providing backup to the miserable capacity factor and predictability of that factor is not included -- wind systems must provide for ~2.4 times their total capacity in order to simply guarantee the delivery of the MWHrs quoted.

Then you go on to mention things you think support your analysis (if we can call it tahat), like loans for nukes. You do realixe, Bob, that all loans are paid back, fully, byn the receiving utilities, right? The subsidies for wind are not.

Then let's go to the other big bucks -- de-commissioning -- wind pays nnothing. Nukes pay per kW installed, up front.

We won't even review the other cocts to the environment, like land consumption, species threats, transmission corridors (note cost above), new roads, noise, high maintenance costs & deaths...

Then there are the silly things like putting up big steel towers on hugen concrete foundations all over hundreds of square miles, and being unable to move them when climate changes, as the Chinese have already sadly discovered...
http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/wind/a-less-mighty-wind
www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/us/21tttransmission.html?_r=1&hpw

So it should be no wonder the Chinese are building and planning over 200 new reactors, India over 59, and the rest of the world about 150.

Guess they just don't understand the costs the way you do, eh Bob? Keep trying. You simply show you're no source of accurate energy info.
;]
Rich Barbarics
Rich Barbarics
March 7, 2013
We should continue with small distributed generators - solar, wind fuel cells. Why we even talk about displacing a 500 MW coal plant with a 500 MW wind plant doesn't make any sense. Sure it's cleaner but it misses the point on central vs distributed. The day of the large mainframe computer is long gone - so should it be for the central power plant, regardless of technology.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 7, 2013
Dr. Misinformation, you wrote, "Back to Dr. Cliff." OK, now you have gone too far. Do not include me in the short list of small minds that attempt to gain intellectual credibility by adding the "Dr" prefix or the "PhD" suffix to their names. All commenters here start out on an equal footing. Credibility must be earned. Your claiming some a-priori status reveals a lot about your character. Your continued spewing of nonsense reveals all that needs to be known of your intellect. It's time to wrap up your act.
lee nhan
lee nhan
March 7, 2013
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Please add my new energy sources 100% Green
Activities such as wind power, but not necessarily placed outdoors, working 24/24h
See my model wind energy. simple - mild-effective-inexpensive, can be placed anywhere in the southernmost islands north pole ( the Arctic and Antarctica )(even cold weather)
It is located in a closed cycle -not too noisy - not interfere with the direction of the wind
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Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 7, 2013
"The 60 years is 4x the 15 you were using in your example"

In other words, you just made some stuff up.

You really are a fount of misinformation Alex. You do nothing but post junk and annoy people. It's time for me to turn off this thread and let you babble on.

BTW, there is no database for lives lost during nuclear reactor construction or operation that is the equivalent of lives lost during wind farm construction and operation, so we really can't compare fatalities. The nuclear industry likes to brag about the few people who have been killed by radiation but they don't mention the people who have fallen to their deaths in plants (at least two in the last two years) and the half dozen or so who were scalded to death. Nor the ones electrocuted, or run over by vehicles...
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 7, 2013
"BobW, you don't seem to read your own links, or do you fib and expect to get away with it?

http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/"

Alex. The numbers for that link are for operating nuclear reactors, not reactors yet to be built. That means that the LCOE is for reactors built when construction costs were lower and safety standards were less.

If you'd like to compare the cost of building new capacity then you should use the current cost of onshore wind (roughly 5 cents) and the EIA estimate for new capacity to be placed into service in 2017 which is in excess of 11 cents. Of course there will be no new nuclear capacity for at least 5 more years so the price will be even higher. If you'd like to use the EIA 2017 total LCOE for wind which includes transmission then it comes in around 9.6 cents.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

Do remember that is a non-subsidized price for wind but nuclear would be receiving federal loan guarantees and free liability insurance paid for by taxpayers.

And do remember that the price of wind (especially offshore wind) will continues to decrease as the price of nuclear continues to rise.

The cost of backup generation is not part of an LCOE calculation. All generation needs backup, even nuclear. When events like the earthquake in Virginia which took two reactors off line in 2011 occurred it is necessary to be able to replace that supply.

If you ever make it out of high school Alex, be sure to take an econ class and some basic sciences classes. Perhaps you'll be able to understand how the world works.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 7, 2013
BobW, just saw your lack of understanding way back: "It is extremely likely that new tech turbines will last at least a decade longer than first generation turbines. No one is predicting 60 years"

The 60 years is 4x the 15 you were using in your example, producing a very modest total energy out put from thousands of windmills taking up many square miles and losing many MWHrs in transmission/conversion loss.

My point was so simple you apparently didn't get it -- a standard nuke runs for >30 years, producing >10 times the energy on a hundred acres, 24/7, as your clunky wind''farm'. You pray to get 40% CF, while the nuke gets >90%. You must somehow fund backup, levelling generation, not in your EROI, and you must repair the wind gear many times over in 30 years. If you don't get the realities for wind, too bad, but your persistent bias here is at least exposing facts for others to see.

If you were an engineer or scientist, your statements would be inexcusable, rather than laughable. Hate to see you run into any relatives of these folks...
www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 6, 2013
Back to Dr. Cliff and "Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) ratio." -- remember, Cliff, the EROI never includes the backup power or grid management required to level the ultimate energy delivered, it doesn't include the cost of energy wasted in transmission to loads, and it doesn't even include the deaths & injuries to people, not just bats, birds, etc... www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
www.inquisitr.com/18588/wind-power-causes-more-deaths-than-nuclear-power/

So what was that again about wind's EROI, Cliff? What's a worker worth?

Now to the best part -- why do you insist on showing you don't care about facts and just want to mislead folks, eh Cliff? This...

http://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/geophysical_limits_to_global_wind_power

is equivalent to saying earth has lots of water & sun. No one disputes the energy, global energy, of wind currents. I know some of these folks. Their keyboards are < 2 miles from my keyboard. And, they're just now digesting the reality of the Harvard study, which, apparently unknown to you, discusses earlier, greater estimates of harvestable wind power maxima.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/
www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power

None of those estimates advocate for wind rather than solar, since they all fall below 10 Watts per square meter, while local solar is already 20 times that, with no land needed. Maybe take a look again, Cliff, since you've so far avoided the graph of several studies' "actual" vs "Expected" wind-energy capture. The Stanford Nobel physicist I discussed this link with last week referred to it as a "serious issue" for the researchers you blindly quote.

But again, the sun gives us 17,000 TeraWatts, just over land, all day long. No need for wind's vulnerability to climate. No need for wind's consumption of lands & species. No need for wind's high maintenance. No need for wind's deaths.
;]
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 6, 2013
Dear Dr. Misinformation,

Here is a report you will enjoy.

Geophysical limits to global wind power
http://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/geophysical_limits_to_global_wind_power

"We find wind turbines placed on Earth's surface could extract kinetic energy at a rate of at least 400?TW, whereas high-altitude wind power could extract more than 1,800?TW. At these high rates of extraction, there are pronounced climatic consequences. However, we find that at the level of present global primary power demand (~ 18?TW; ref. 2), uniformly distributed wind turbines are unlikely to substantially affect the Earth's climate."
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 6, 2013
BobW, you don't seem to read your own links, or do you fib and expect to get away with it?

http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/

Shows the same relation I referred to in the earlier comments -- onshore wind & nuke are the same for cost and CO2 embedded, while offshore wind is about double both.

And your statements about nuclear power show you don't understand it -- probably because you're not an engineer, or just don't want to. Doesn't matter to me -- remember, I don't care to try to convince you of anything. Just don;'t want your fluff going unchallenged for what it is.

But hey, the figures I've used here are all from papers by scientists & engineers. One of them a Nobel -- but hey, you & Cliff are smarter than him, eh?
;]
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 6, 2013
Dear Dr. Misinformation,

The matter of steel or concrete or other material embodied in an energy-producing asset is quantified by its Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) ratio. You may remember I mentioned that metric earlier but maybe you weren't listening. Here is a layman's explanation for you with some revealing data: "EROEI of electricity generation" http://www.resilience.org/stories/2010-07-18/eroei-electricity-generation

There you will see that your favorite technologies - nuclear and PV solar - have disastrous EROEI ratios of 10.9 and 8.3 respectively. By comparison, the EROEI of wind is 25. I'll help you with the math - wind provides over twice the value of nuclear and three times the value of PV.

If you take those EROEI rstios and divide them into the expected lifetime you can determine the number of years of operation it takes to recoup its invested energy. It's easy, but in your case I'd recommend using a calculator. While you have it dusted off you can also divide the EROEI by the expected lifetime and you can see that wind is the only power source that produces more energy each year of it's operation than was required to build it.

I'll grant you these are averages and I'm sure you can find exceptions, but it's time for you to get a grip on reality. I'd also point out that at the end of it's useful life, the steel and other materials embodied in a wind turbine can be reused or recycled into another wind turbine. Most components of a nuke are too radioactive for that and must be buried.

You know Alex - may I call you Alex? - some people spend their whole lives barking up the wrong tree. You still have some time left - snap out of it.
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 6, 2013
And here, Alex, you engage in more of your dishonesty.

"Bob, did you not read Chris "100 of the newer 6MW windmills could produce over 30 TWH (@40%CF)" -- now 15 years ain't nuthin' "

More than 15 years does not equal 60 years. Shame on you Alex.

We know that the oldest turbines (Altamont Pass) produced electricity for 30 years before maintenance costs rose to the point that it made more sense to replace them.

We know that the weak point of turbines is the gear train.

We know that gear trains have improved and that many turbines are now direct drive (no gear train).

We know that numerous sensors are now being installed in turbines which allows monitoring and repair before a problem becomes significant.

It is extremely likely that new tech turbines will last at least a decade longer than first generation turbines. No one is predicting 60 years.

But consider, the overnight cost of a wind turbine is about half that of a nuclear reactor. If turbines lasted only half as long as a reactor they would still be the economic winner with their very significant lower operating and financing costs.
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 6, 2013
Alex, you continue to cherry-pick information and misrepresent the cost of nuclear energy. It's not just the materials that go into building a reactor nor the land on which is sits. One also has to include the resources used for fuel and waste disposal. When you put the package together nuclear is priced off the table.

The world, with the exception of China and India, has essentially quit building reactors and China has scaled back their plans while greatly boosting wind and solar capacity.

Even looking at the construction costs nuclear looses. The median overnight cost of wind is $1.57 (thousand per kW) and $3.10 for nuclear. Nuclear is too expensive even before one adds in financing and operating expenses.

http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/

France isn't building more reactors. In fact, they plan to start closing some. France is installing more solar and starting into offshore wind.

It's not simply the fuel which is a problem. We, in the US, have millions of gallons of highly radioactive liquid waste (contaminated water) for which we have no long term safe storage. We've leaked 50 million gallons into the ground at Hanford.

I don't know if you are intentionally dishonest or simply highly misinformed Alex. The fact that you pretend to be a doctor and pretend to be an engineer makes me think the former.

Whatever the case, you are a waste of my time.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 6, 2013
So Cliff you again exhibit full ignorance of nuclear power. Why not go learn from those who operate systems that swamp any renewables on any basis? Take a nice trip to France, maybe, and learn why your last statement is so naive.

Here, a hint -- a 5MW Siemens windmill needs >2000 tons of material, not including fuel, for each MW of average power delivered over its life. 5000 of those windmills are needed to just meet peak, not average 2.5GWe of a single nuke plant. All the nuclear waste from fuel in the US is 68,000 tons, from over 100 reactors.

Your 1-nuke-equivalent wind farm needed 2000 x 5000 x 5 = 50 million tons of materials just to have a peak rating equal to one nuke.

Good work, Cliff. I could hardly have shown the wastefulness of wind any better.

But wait, just like those TV ads, there's more -- the 68,000 tons of US 'spent' fuel isn't "spent", as the French have long known -- they don't waste things as easily as you. So they recycle the fuel, meaning >90% is reused. Here, see what we are planning in the US to have an equally sane, future policy...
http://theenergycollective.com/rodadams/189676/recycling-used-nuclear-fuel-argonne-research-explained-4-min-video

Our 68,000 tons of fuel 'waste' represents decades f emissions-free power for the entire US.

Thanks again for showing us all you don't bother to study what would help us all, Cliff.
;]
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 5, 2013
Alex writes, "200TWH 24/7" Opps, another clueless statement.

Then, even after being corrected he continues to call a paper from a UNC graduate assistant a Harvard study.

He also forgets that the fuel for that nuke needs to be mined and worse yet, locked up for 10,000 years once spent.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 5, 2013
Bob, did you not read Chris "100 of the newer 6MW windmills could produce over 30 TWH (@40%CF)" -- now 15 years ain't nuthin'

But, ok, a nuke runs on 100 acres pumping out 2GW x 8760 x 15 x 900% = >200TWH 24/7. And, the nuke is licensed for twice or 3 times that time.

One of these days, Bob, you'll see how silly your wind fetish is.

The Danes aren't especially happy either...
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/7996606/An-ill-wind-blows-for-Denmarks-green-energy-revolution.html

And the figures I quoted of <30% capacity over 9 years to 2012 were available to you earlier here. The report is public. Having talked personally with the nice Danish lady in charge of their renewables last Spring, I can confirm what you don't want to believe. But you can do it for yourself, if you care about facts.

For everyone else, here again is the latest Harvard study...
www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/

Even if the rosiest predictions were true, the wind yield is 1/20 of present standard local solar installations. You need a hell of a CF to make up for consuming 20x the space.
;]
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 5, 2013
Alex - who made this claim?

"The idea that a 6MW windmill is going to have a 40% yield (capacity) over 60 years is absurd"
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 5, 2013
Denmark installed a few turbines early on which did have low capacity. They produced in the mid-20% capacity in 1992 and were at 20% in 2012. It's not clear whether the ~4 point drop in capacity is due to aging equipment or annual variation in wind speed. Capacity has hit 20% before and then popped back up to the mid-20s.

Their most recent installations are around 40% capacity. And in 2012, after 8 years of performance in the 40s they hit 50% capacity.

Hughes tried to claim that the older ones started high, using the 40%+ capacity from newer turbines and fell to low by using data from 20 year old turbines (which started low).
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 5, 2013
Alex, you didn't fall for that POS "study" by Hughes on Danish wind farms did you?

You don't know that it was not a published scientific study but something published by an anti-renewable energy organization deceptively named as the Renewable Energy Foundation?

You don't know that Hughes has also published other reports which have been widely debunked? One was a piece of junk on the cost of natural gas backup for wind.

Here's a bit on the REF -

"There have been critics of REF's agenda, in particular Juliet Davenport, chief executive of green energy provider Good Energy, and Dale Vince, founder of Ecotricity, who both accuse the organisation of using a deliberately "misleading" name. Vince says "They are not a Foundation for Renewable Energy, as their name says and as any reasonable person would conclude from their name – they actually exist to undermine Renewable Energy – in that respect their name is a deceit."

Other critics such as Maria McCaffery, chief executive of RenewableUK, a trade body that represents more than 600 wind and marine energy firms, says the Renewable Energy Foundation's true purpose is diametrically opposed to the interests of the wind energy industry. "It is an anti-wind lobbying organisation," she told BusinessGreen. "I'd like to know where the renewable energy part of their remit is. They don't foster or promote or develop, they just try to undermine the case for wind energy all the time."[6]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Energy_Foundation

Other people have downloaded the data that Hughes supposedly used and have found nothing similar to what he claims to be the Danish capacity.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 4, 2013
So Cliff, noble Cliff, Cliff the Sensitive, "I have little patience with blowhards like yourself." -- good.

Why not let Bob speak for himsealf as to how my words to all or any, of you were "insults and invectives".

You don't seem to get that convincing you of anything is not my goal. Your biases are clear for all to see. My only purpose is to meet misinformation with as accurate info as I can find. You don't like the various reports and stats that show wind inferior, fine. Others may accept honest data.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 4, 2013
So Cliff, noble Cliff, Cliff the Sensitive, "I have little patience with blowhards like yourself." -- good.

Why not let Bob speak for himsealf as to how my words to all or any, of you were "insults and invectives".

You don't seem to get that convincing you of anything is not my goal. Your biases are clear for all to see. My only purpose is to meet misinformation with as accurate info as I can find. You don't like the various reports and stats that show wind inferior, fine. Others may accept honest data.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 4, 2013
Alex, as you know, I have little patience with blowhards like yourself. I thought Bob was unbelievably gracious in his last response, yet you insist on insults and invectives.

You are a common item around here with a consistently negative stance on all technologies other than you pet technology du jour. You seem unable to grasp common concepts like LCOE or EROEI and dispute well establish fact when it is contrary to your PV faith.

You can't even grasp that the study suggesting new limits on the global potential of wind power was written by a graduate assistant at UNC Chapel Hill and was not done at Harvard. But regardless, it's findings are contrary to numerous other studies on the same topic. It was published in Environmental Research Letters, an open-access (free) research journal which is not rated highly among environmental journals. Your referring to it as a Harvard study to give it more credibility is rather telling.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 4, 2013
Cliff, Chris & Bob -- best to deal with all windies at once, eh?
;]
The deployments of large wind systems are falling. Even Denmark is stagnating. The idea that a 6MW windmill is going to have a 40% yield (capacity) over 60 years is absurd, and we all know this. Why not actually read the new Harvard doc?

If you look at the industry's own failure documents and costs, you see why wind makes no sense, unless you want one on your remote farm or island -- note popular vacation islands don't much like windmills.

What fails to be included, even if we assume 40% CF, is the cost of that other 60%. Construction, operation & environmental costs are to be included. They are not honestly covered, especially by conveniences like EROI.

Our Calif. situation with wind has always been problematic, not just from subsidy and lack of de-commissioning, but from basic environmental realities. We're down to a couple hundred Golden Eagles here. The Altamont Pass folks have been killing them and others for a few decades now and finally have started deploying improved windmills that will kill fewer. That problem exists around the world. That problem doesn't exist at all with local solar, hydro, geothermal or nuclear. So if you want to pretend to be an environmentalist go ahead, but windmills aren't either economically sound or environmentally sound.

You folks aren't going to pay for the disruptions to lands & species caused by wind deployments, right? That's out of your 'EROI'? Drive by the large wind 'farm' NE of San Diego -- gonna pick up all the busted blades lying all over the place there? Didn't think so.

You obviously aren't engineers or scientists or you'd get what the Harvard study and the Chinese have been finding about real yields from wind deployments. That's one reason the Chinese are moving quickly to solar & nuclear.
Chris Woodward
Chris Woodward
March 4, 2013
At some level, the point isn't to horse race wind and solar. It boils down to costing out each project, and getting reference points for an RFP. Wind PPA's are being delivered to California for beneath 5 cents/kwh (3 years ago). On whose behalf did NSTAR say yes to ~22 cents? EIA said at one point off-shore is roughly twice as expensive, not 4X. The same thing can happen to solar.

A 15 year lease for 100 of the newer 6MW windmills could produce over 30 TWH (@40%CF). Divide cost over that, and, even with capital costs, anywhere near 22 cents/kwh is hard to arrive at. Would that project run over $100 billion? Check my math, please.
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 4, 2013
Alex, I really don't know why you have your bloomers in such a twist over wind. If you would take a common sense approach and look at what is happening all around the world you would see that wind generation is being installed in massive amounts and the rates of installation are increasing.

There cannot be that many fools in the world as you would have us believe. Too many major corporations are investing billions and billions of dollars into wind generation. And they are doing so because they can do objective math.

How you find wind and solar to be vastly different is beyond my understanding. Both use abundant and free energy. We will never (at least in for a couple billion years) run out of either. The technologies work well. They have very low lifetime carbon footprints. We could power our grid with either or a mixture of only the two and use only a very small portion of our land area. Neither are harmful to humans and only very slightly harmful to non-humans. Neither produce harmful/dangerous waste products. Both produce affordable electricity.

Both wind and solar technologies are improving and will continue to improve and to decrease the cost of electricity they produce. Most likely they will form the backbone of our future grid. The most likely competitors would be enhanced geothermal and fusion. Enhanced geothermal might prove out in the next few years, fusion could be decades to centuries away.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 4, 2013
Alex, as I said, it's going to take a mix of renewables. I encourage you to keep working on PV efficiency, as it is obvious that their capacity factor is not likely to improve. Do you really think it is fair to compare kW/sqm between these two very different technologies. Maybe it would be better to use kW/sqm of shadow.

The progress that has been made recently in wind turbines is largely in the area of manufacturing and installation costs and the development of turbines that work well in lighter wind locations.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 4, 2013
Cliff, you say wind is "not my field", good, so why then not support far more efficient, less environmentally threatening & wasteful sources?

BobW says wind power is somehow new, so deserving of subsidies, and adds an attempt at analogy with: "Solar panels, 30 years ago, cost around $100 per watt." -- well Bob, remember why we had a push to improve solar cells in the previous century? Windmills don't work in space.

To try to compare solar technologies for power generation with wind is to assume the reader is ignorant of science & engineering.

Not only has wind power been around for millennia, there's very little room for improvement in efficiency available, particularly because vendors sell what they can make -- props connected to generators, high up on towers.

Solar technologies are far broader, and have the full solar input of 1kW/square meter to shoot for via continually scientific and engineering work. Wind has no such target. Wind is already far behind solar PV on a kW/sqm basis, regardless of windmill design or deployment.

Bias is no substitute for reality, if one is really concerned with the environment we leave our descendents. That's one reason the Harvard, and other, studies are important -- they expose the wind 'emperor' lacking clothes.
;]
Perhaps this site should sponsor sessions with a shrink, for those suffering windmill 'withdrawal' angst?
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 4, 2013
Anon - Yes, Cape Wind and other first offshore wind farms will require subsidies. New technologies do not spring forth fully developed at mature technology prices. I give you the cell phone, the computer, the color TV as examples.

Solar panels, 30 years ago, cost around $100 per watt. The are now selling for around $0.50 per watt. A 200x price drop thanks to the use of subsidies which built a market and attracted people who worked to find cheaper ways to produce the product.

Onshore wind, 30 years ago, produced electricity at $0.38/kWh. It is now producing electricity as low as $0.04/kWh. That's almost a 10x price drop thanks to subsidies. Offshore wind will experience the same cost drops as we build the factories, docks and installation vessels we need to install offshore turbines efficiently.

Subsidies for renewables are well-paying investments in our future.

(We've been subsidizing fossil fuels for 100 years and nuclear energy for 60. Both their costs keep rising. That's a bad investment.)
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 4, 2013
Bob, I agree regarding offshore wind, and anticipate the additional capital and installation costs to drop as more experience is gained.

Regarding solar matching demand, I agree to a point, but mainly where demand is dominated by air conditioning. Clearly there is a mismatch in cooler climates were more energy is used in the winter. That is why offshore wind is being pursued off New England.
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
March 4, 2013
Cliff, the LCOE for offshore wind is higher than onshore, but it is more valuable electricity because time of generation more closely matches demand peaks. It's the same with solar.

Additionally, offshore is where the good wind is in the East.

As for Alex's "wind remains the least efficient 'renewable' being mass produced. And, it's the one with the heaviest environmental impacts and highest resource consumption per kWHr actually delivered."

The LCOE of electricity from wind turbines puts the lie to that claim. Efficiency and resource consumption set the price of electricity. With wind being one of our two least expensive ways to make electricity, Alex's claim is clearly false.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 4, 2013
Alex, I have no stake in wind - it's not my field. But I am motivated to hasten the end of the fossil fuel age for reasons I suspect we both share. It's going to take a mix of renewables to do it and it does no good to spew misinformation to suit your personal preferences.

Instead of relying on such biases, I suggest you turn to the tools made available at NREL's website:
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cost_dg.html and http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cost_om_dg.html and http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cap_factor.html

Take the technology of interest and use the NREL data to determine a capital cost, an O&M cost, and a capacity factor. Then take those numbers and enter them in their handy LCOE calculator - see: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html

I did that for both wind at the 100 to 1,000 kW installed size bracket and found the LCOE of wind to be $0.092/kWh. For comparison I looked at a PV installation of the same size and found the LCOE to be $0.172/kWh.

Alternatively, turn to their Transparent Cost Database at: http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/ There you will see that onshore wind power is the most economical renewable technology other than hydro. To date, offshore wind is ~50% more expensive, but I suppose that is the price for coping with NIMBY mentalities. Of particular note is that the median price of PV is four times that of onshore wind.

Regarding the study you mentioned, the lead author is actually from UNC, but regardless, it hints at a cautionary tale but I have not yet read the paper. I'd need to understand how the authors incorporate the role of upper-level winds in their assumptions that wind turbines are going to somehow decrease the global wind resource. Logically, one must realize that absent wind turbines wind energy is being continually dissipated by other natural and man-made objects. I suspect there will be some interesting rebuttals emerging very soon.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 3, 2013
" Right now, wind power, and even offshore wind power is the best way of meeting that goal." -- "Not really", Cliff. Though we know you want wind, wind and more wind!
;]
Using the excuse of delay and modest sizing of generators, doesn't change the reality that wind remains the least efficient 'renewable' being mass produced. And, it's the one with the heaviest environmental impacts and highest resource consumption per kWHr actually delivered.

We note you apparently ignored the Harvard study (hey, they're in MA too!)...

www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/

If one wanted to find a way of wasting large amounts of resources, fuel and power, forever, windmills are hard to beat.
;]
They are good for stunning humor though...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5PPBGsoQMM&feature=endscreen&NR=1
www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9837026/Wind-turbine-collapses-in-high-wind.html
http://tinyurl.com/bl9vlc7 (personal favorite)

Maybe not returning value for their subsidies though.
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 3, 2013
You wrote, "government helped this enterprise grow too big, ultimately suffering under its own weight."

Not really. What government did with it's dysfunctional permitting system is delay this project by 12 years. In the mean time, offshore wind technology has moved on but this project is stuck with ca 2000-sized turbines (2.8 MW) as compared to the 5 and 7 MW technologies that are far more economic. The project was also conceived in a time of higher electricity prices and long before fracking was a glimmer in the eye of the natural gas industry.

Let's also remember that as a society (at least in Massachusetts) a decision has been made to bring renewable power into the mix for a variety of very good reasons. Right now, wind power, and even offshore wind power is the best way of meeting that goal.
Chris Woodward
Chris Woodward
March 3, 2013
I'd agree the article goes the wrong direction. It's economics. It's tough to get behind a $.22 kilowatt hour, after a $.22 per kwh PTC gets layered on top. Cape Wind lacks the transparent itemization of how much it costs to 'get out of the water', etc, in off-shore wind production. Venture capital and investor owned utility interaction, with no small amount of government helped this enterprise grow too big, ultimately suffering under its own weight.

Distributed grid, its micro-transparency and the inclusion of multiple bidding parties is likely to provide better, greener, outcomes, especially for the eastern sea-board. One can be both green and reject $.44 cent per kwh green energy. Once can be both green and recognize that, in California,a shotgun approval process risks inefficiently wasting the economic ceiling citizens may at some point prove to have.

Cape wind isn't hard to believe in, but its cost structure is.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
March 1, 2013
Cliff sums of the tear-jerking, victim comments above well...

"Rest assured the money behind the law suits has not come from progressives."

But reality is different. "Progressives" want progress and windmills in the ocean aren't that. They do make $ for a few via subsidies from us all, but using the least efficient 'renewable' in a dangerous environment has nothing "progressive" about it.

Even the comment above about views and oil drilling are bassackwards, without apparent consciousness of being so. The Cape
Wind & oil execs and investors want the same thing -- $.

If someone wants to get mad at money grubbers who despoil environments, then Cape Wind is no better than you local fracker. The science & engineering that any environmentalist should take to heart have been disguised, whether fossil-fuels or windmills are promoted.

Wind, like "clean coal", etc. is finally falling of its own weighty mass of fibbery...

www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/rethinking-wind-power
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/015021/

The video is enough to explain why wind generators are no solution, unless you're making $ from them and are neither an environmentalist nor a progressive.
;]
Cliff Goudey
Cliff Goudey
March 1, 2013
Rest assured the money behind the law suits has not come from progressives.
ANONYMOUS
March 1, 2013
Those who are invested in fossil fuels don't want to sit on the deck of their estate and look at the future of energy that is threatening their investments. Must be like the way a buggy whip manufacturer felt when he saw a horseless carriage.
Bill
ANONYMOUS
March 1, 2013
GeraldR- In reality, the largest hurdle facing this Cape Wind project is ultimately simple economics. Without massive subsidies it will not survive for the long term.

Regardless, this is a sadly ironic tale. Mr. Gordon went into this venture assuming that the left-leaning governments around Cape Cod would embrace his "clean energy" project. Instead what he found was that these "progressives" put their personal self-interests above all else. And Mr. Gordon saw first-hand how these progressives were able to use power of the legal system and courts to impede any activity they did not approve of.

Now after 12 years and millions of dollars spent on legal costs, Mr. Gordon's Cape Wind project is still a distant dream. And the ultimate irony is that during those 12 years, the least "progressive" state in the US has become the largest producer of wind energy.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
February 28, 2013
The problem isn't environmental law: in a 5 year span, Bush and Obama permitted 33,000 offshore drilling sites and issued over 5000 leases.
There's obviously another explanation. Even the view-shed argument rings hollow as I have been to several beaches where oil and/or gas platforms clutter the horizon (some near the homes of very rich people) and many more where smokestacks are clustered right on the shoreline. I'm not sure this article makes it much clearer other than to point out that rich people with expensive lawyers and purchased influence are the effective democrats.

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Tom Zeller Jr.

Tom Zeller Jr.

Tom Zeller Jr., is a senior writer at The Huffington Post covering a variety of topics, including poverty, energy policy and the environment. Before joining The Huffington Post, Tom spent more than 10 years as a reporter and editor at The...
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