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Switching Costs, Personal Identity and the Difficulty of Switching to Solar

Paula Mints SPV Market Research/Strategies Unlimited
January 30, 2013  |  18 Comments

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Self-interest, which does not necessarily mean selfishness, is the primary motivating factor in decision making. When properly stimulated, well, people will buy almost anything. Case in point and rhetorically, who really needs a Bugatti, a Rolls Royce or an Alfa Romeo? Owning one of these vehicles implies something about the buyer though the real point is transportation. Somewhere along the line the need to get from point A to point B began a status game and people who could afford to pay the price (or, go into debt) began plunking down money or credit for the privilege of opening very expensive car doors.

A sustainable environment would seem the highest order of self-interest. Distributed generation solar has the attribute of energy independence, which should render it the Bugatti of energy generating technologies.  Unfortunately, the solar industry has not been able to confer the same cachet on owning a solar electric system as is conferred by owning a Rolls Royce. Realization of the harm that climate change has done and continues to do is not enough to stimulate a switch to solar on a significant scale. YES there has been an increase in adoption market to market but momentum for a wholesale change is still needed. One reason for this is because the vast concept of climate change is difficult to personalize until there is a disaster.  Until climate-based disasters become more common (at which point it is probably too late) the dominate value is guilt, or, something akin to guilt.  In general, people will tend to look for the least expensive way to ameliorate guilt.

A customer-owned DG residential or small/medium commercial solar system should be viewed as more than a hedge against volatile utility electricity rates – energy independence should confer the highest order of cachet.  Owning a solar system implies personal independence and courage to take an environmental stand.  Since these values should not be unique to the wealthy, financing instruments specific to achieving this independence need to be developed and for this to happen the banking community needs help in understanding the values that the solar industry is really selling. Oh yes, and politicians need to understand why it is in their best interest to stop subsidizing conventional energy and take down the remaining roadblocks to going solar (bring back PACE). 

If the subsidies (direct and indirect) for conventional energy disappeared tomorrow, solar would not need its own subsidies and competition would be fair – what a concept.  Educating the energy buying public about conventional energy subsidies will not help because the point will be made that without them conventional energy would be much more expensive.  This will not help people switch or engage them in the fight; it will likely scare them into complacency.  The goal should be to end these subsidies.  Until conventional energy subsidies are rolled back the concept of grid parity is an oxymoron, the playing field will remain uneven, and solar will be stuck in low margin limbo.  The latter outcome relates to the painful downward pressure on prices for solar hardware and solar systems.

Switching Costs

Switching costs have halted many a technological or brand change in its path.  Switching costs refer to the effort needed for a buyer to change to another brand or new technology. The more entrenched the behavior, the harder it is to switch, and the stronger the motivation needs to be to make the switch (back to the values ascribed to the things people own, for solar it needs to be stronger than guilt). The strongest barrier to going solar is that most people are used to renting their electricity and are not convinced of the value of owning the means of production. Many people rent their homes, or own apartment-like condos and are thus unable to own the means of energy production – unless the landlord or complex owner invests.  In areas where condo complexes are common the majority of owners would need to agree (condo complexes are perfect vehicles for community solar projects).  Solar leases attempt to get around the energy renter mentality. 

Barriers to switching are behavioral and include financial (there needs to be an economic reason to switch), procedural (how hard is it and in many parts of the U.S., permitting is a mind-numbing nightmare), and relational (the utilities may be viewed by some as the enemy, but it is the known enemy).  Switching to solar electric system ownership requires a significant change in behavior and uncovering the way to the energy consumer’s heart is nontrivial.  Back to solar leases, these models do not lead directly to the necessary change in paradigm, but, they are a start. 

The energy consumer’s relationship to utility-rented electricity is embedded in the psyche, engrained to the point that the stimuli to change must be extreme. Referring to a market with a significant degree of residential solar, Germany’s initial zero interest financing answered the financial hurdle, and its successful FiT crossed both the financial and the procedural hurdles.  In markets where electricity is imported and electricity prices are already high the financial, procedural and relational barriers should be easier to overcome but often are not.  In these markets the extra stimulus of a financial incentive pushes entrenched buyers over the line.

Focusing on the U.S. psyche – key words to describe the U.S. include pioneering, stubborn, persevering, inventive, innovative and independent – all attributes that can be pinged when designing a campaign to encourage solar ownership. U.S. citizens hate to be told what to do, so, offering them independence from utility rate increases and control over their energy future will pique interest after which there must be a seamless road to ownership.  Moreover, once the consumers are behind the solar industry the politicians will follow. 

It’s a lovely dream but by no means an ensured reality – primarily because the entrenched status quo will need to become un-entrenched to make it come true. Keeping the lights on can become a status game and the end result has the cachet of helping to save the environment. 

Lead image: U.S. Flag with Wind and Solar via Shutterstock

18 Comments

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Sfinkx Corporation
Sfinkx Corporation
February 11, 2013
@Juan-Pelotas: Those must have been some high-priced PV panels that will cause a 15 year delay before realizing a return on your investment, (unless your purchase was 5 - 10 years ago when they were really that expensive).
Benjamin Gorman
Benjamin Gorman
February 3, 2013
The aesthetics issue is not universal. In some markets, such as many areas in California, PV modules on the roof are considered aesthetically pleasing-- in part due to the social aspects of solar PV ownership (or leasee-ship, I suppose!). PV mods on the roof are a badge, a status symbol, and their appearance is suddenly no longer intrusive, but attractive. Humans. Go figure! Certainly, there are less pleasing-looking installations than others. But when the market has lots of penetration, the perception is often positive. Witness enhanced property values where PV is installed in such markets.
Gary McCallum
Gary McCallum
February 3, 2013
The best bang for the buck in solar is and always will be Passive Soalr. Your house design can save more than 50% of your energy costs.
To make Mrs Susan Grogan a little less irritated with the aestetics of solar

"It does not take into account the "messiness" of a solar installation on a residential roof--being bolted on in mumerous places with a gap that allows for wind damage and leaves you with still having to pay for and worry about the integrity of shingles and such."

I am trying to bring this patent pending invention to market and eliminate the above noted and perceived problem.

For your viewing Susan
www.orionsolartech.com.
Read the OVERVIEW and look at the 17 drawings under the details tab for a good understanding.
LES NELSON
LES NELSON
February 1, 2013
A good source of information about the quantification of incentives for all energy sources can be found here:
http://bakercenter.utk.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Solar-incentives-and-benefits-_complete-report_May-1-2012-21.pdf
juan pelotas
juan pelotas
February 1, 2013
The payback in my case (in FL) was about 15 years. FL incentive is/was very good but it dries out after the first 15 minutes of the new year. Ridiculous. It's no different than EVs; we are telling people 'hey, pay for 100,000 miles worth of gas now upfront, and then you will save.' With Solar is the same: 'pay your next 15 years worth of electric bills now, and by year 16 you are getting free power!!' To make matters worse; I knew that contrary to what I've had read, I was not going to get anything back of the investment if I sold the home (FL is NOT CA; decades behind).
Daniel Simon
Daniel Simon
February 1, 2013
@8 juan-gomez part 2)subsidies traditional sources

I ran across an example of a hidden subsidy related to coal power scanning this Greenpeace report (pg 44) The report details other subsidies on other pages. The subsidy requies a little explaination...not easy to "sound bite".

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/Campaign-reports/Climate-Reports/Point-of-No-Return/

"While Arch, Ambre, and Peabody hope to reap sizable
profits in overseas markets, the US public would unfairly
shoulder much of the financial burden. The economics of
these export proposals rest, in part, on a massive public
subsidy delivered through the US Department of Interior's
coal-leasing program that charges the companies a
pittance for a valuable resource. Coal companies are given
cheap access to taxpayer-owned coal, and allowed to
strip mine it from public lands, through auctions run by
the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The BLM allows
companies to propose and set the terms of the lease to
maximise their profits. As a result, only three federal coal
auctions in the past 20 years have had more than one
bidder. Knowing there won't be competition, companies
are free to enter the lowest possible bid for this coal. In
2012, the BLM gave Peabody access to 721 million tons
of taxpayer-owned coal for $1.10 a ton.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
(IEEFA) estimates that the federal BLM's undervaluing
of Powder River Basin coal has amounted to a public
subsidy of $28.9bn to the coal industry since 1980, on
the backs of US taxpayers"
ANONYMOUS
February 1, 2013
Another important point that all advocates of alternative energy need to promote: We all know that because of subsidies, the cost of oil wars and the dodging of paying the costs of environmental damage, the true cost of fossil fuel and nuclear power is artificially low on the energy bill. And please don’t forget the devastation of Fukushima, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. With the cost artificially low, the financial incentive for energy conservation projects and the installation of alternative energy projects is hijacked. If the true cost of conventional energy was charged on the energy bill, then energy conservation projects that now have a 5 year payback would then have a 1 year payback. Alternative energy projects with a 12 year payback would have a 2 year payback. Just think of all the useful, meaningful jobs these types of projects would create.
Benjamin Gorman
Benjamin Gorman
January 31, 2013
@joia-gibble-244173:
A coal plant, to most perceptions, has zero mess--- because people don't normally see them. It's terribly easy (too easy) for energy consumers to remain disconnected from the many costs of power production given our present centralized production model. The long distance between cause (coal-fired power plant) and effect (the lights coming on in the kitchen) is a welcome sanitizing gap into which we readily toss our responsibility and our culpability as consumers. I've managed to close the gap in my own mind such that I equate turning on a light switch with turning on a coal plant. I never want to lose sight of the relationship between causes and effects. That's why I find it more than a little disingenuous when well-intentioned people decry the power industry-- which developed along the obvious market paths of the yesteryear-- for its ravenous and willful destruction of the environment, but take no responsibility for their own actions. That doesn't mean one must invest in an expensive PV system (or even lease one)-- since that would be the LAST step in any rational attempt to reduce one's footprint. Conservation and efficiency would be the top priorities, especially if one's power mix was mostly dirty coal (such as in Ohio and other Midwestern states). We're all complicit, we're all culpable. We must all work toward solutions.
J GIBBLE
J GIBBLE
January 31, 2013
Another great article, thank you Paula. I think you captured the barriers to switching very well. susan-grogan re-states the barriers, all of which can be classified as either 'financial', 'procedural', or 'relational'. The opinion that a solar installation is 'messy' is covered by the barrier of 'the entrenched status quo' and 'personal identity'. (how 'messy' is a coal power plant? A nuclear power plant?) Also, leasing solar is a method to control energy costs, which is a step toward energy independence and this can play positively on a utility customer's psyche if they are tired of the source and cost of their energy being controlled by their utility.
Benjamin Gorman
Benjamin Gorman
January 31, 2013
Solar PV prices HAVE gotten substantially lower in the last few years, mostly due to a drop in PV module prices (due in part to a recent oversupply of feedstock, hence of module supply). I have heard for many years the old saying, "I'll just wait until the prices get a little lower," or "I read about this new technology where you can paint your walls to absorb electricity (or some similar Popular Science hoopla)." But the truth is, most people would not install PV even after being shown that the long-term financial benefits are in their best interest. We've been trained to think short-term, what I call Wal-Mart thinking. People don't look to the long term, and so waste huge amounts of money through short-sighted financial choices.

Even if you could prove a 5-year payback AND increasing cash flow after that, AND significant environmental benefit, people just can't be bothered for the most part, UNLESS they are predisposed to believe in something greater than themselves, a benefit to the planet and think themselves capable of making a contribution. Selling solar PV on financial terms alone to short-sighted Americans is an uphill battle. Yes, let's ends the fossil subsidies. Aren't gov't subsidies supposed to offer a helping hand in the market to enterprises that would benefit all? Cheaper oil doesn't benefit all in the long, or even the medium-term, run. It's a proven insupportable COST to all. So end them already!
Juan Gomez
Juan Gomez
January 31, 2013
I'm pro solar and I think it's a good technology/alternative for many people (unfortunately not for my home, where my electric bill is pretty low and my roof pretty shady). I have some comments though:

1) Having lived in a community with many neighbors living on the same building, I understand how difficult is to make as few as 10 families to agree on simple topics... people you see in your flat door, elevator, building entrance, etc. pretty often. I can't imagine how hard it could be to make enough people agree in your neighborhood (maybe people that you have never seen) to install some kind of community solar. So I take my hat off for the ones achieving that goal.

2) I keep on reading about the subsidies to "traditional" sources of energy (oil, coal, nuclear). I guess there is no official way of exactly knowing what those amounts are... If somebody would like to share a link, that would be really educational.

I'm sure solar will have a boom in the near future, as soon as prices get a bit lower, and the energy storage solutions become more common (and cheap). Hopefully that near future will be sooner than later.
Benjamin Gorman
Benjamin Gorman
January 31, 2013
Paula writes "(bring back PACE)". Where has it gone? Though it hasn't been nationalized yet, many states offer PACE financing. See this article and map at DSIRE:

http://www.dsireusa.org/solar/solarpolicyguide/?id=26

But my interest in community solar increases. Indeed, not all homes are well suited to solar (though solar thermal, always the underdog, can often do well even where solar PV is not advisable), but there may be somewhere in the local community that can offer a good site for a larger system whose power is share among neighbors.
Johannes Segner
Johannes Segner
January 31, 2013
Great thoughts - congratulation Paula! It's us that make the change.
Patrick O'Leary
Patrick O'Leary
January 31, 2013
For businesses, competitive advantage is the primary driver. For Futura Solar, since the system is the roof intself, the switching cost is construction cost and the decision is made on that time scale.

Businesses that have adopted translucent dome (warehouses, etc.) have demonstrated a willingness, however limited. Low profile commercial buildings are the target market, and those with processes requiring heat are the sweetspot. A commercial laundry would see light on the shop floor, hot water for the washers, hot air for the dryers and heat recovery from the shop floor, with improved working conditions to boot.
ellen pierce
ellen pierce
January 31, 2013
It looks like Susan-grogan falls into the group of self interest. the article in leaving out energy conservation and an attitude that we all need to do something (probably more rather than less) to change our addiction of using coal or fossil fuels without taking responsibility for global warming. Kind of the point of the article without being direct. Many of the point Susan makes are issues but to someone with an attitude change to reduct their energy consumption and reduct their use of coal and fossil fuels can make choices. for example if your house has trees or is configured in such a way it is not practical to add panels, then they can support community solar. Many Utilities are offering such programs. There are several other choices too. i currently lease a solar system, it is not an issue if i own it or not. It is costing me more "cash flow" money, but i have the option to buy it if I sell my home. Ant the next owner will realize a 50% reduction in their utility bill. Again, back to the article: we need to get the population to understand investing renewable eergy and being conservation mined is in their self-interest. Even if it cost them more.
imagine mei
imagine mei
January 31, 2013
With all due respect, this article is reductive (overly simplistic). For example, it ignores that most homeowners who are going solar now will/do not own the means of production--they will lease. The vast majority of homes are not well situated for solar and the situation of the existing house was not considered with solar in mind. It also does not take into account the impact of solar on the neighborhood environment (tree cutting that can involve neighbors). It does not take into account the "messiness" of a solar installation on a residential roof--being bolted on in mumerous places with a gap that allows for wind damage and leaves you with still having to pay for and worry about the integrity of shingles and such.

For the typical homeowner, the payback is still rather miserable not considering the many difficulties involved.

I could go on but the idea is that this is not a choice among Giffen Goods (Solar v. Bugatis). There are real reasons that obstruct such progress that have not been well addressed by policy and industry.
Tushar Mavani
Tushar Mavani
January 31, 2013
Paula, Good thought and good guidelines. Please also write on conserving the energy, for people to realize on the importance of energy. Congratulations.
Dennis Houghton
Dennis Houghton
January 30, 2013
Good article and insight but please correct this nitpicky detail.
"energy independence should confer the highest order of cache". I think the word you wanted was cachet (ka shay'). A cashe (kash) is a hidden stash of valuables, weapons or people. Gulf War reporters misused these words for years and drilled them into our verbal culture.

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Paula Mints

Paula Mints

All Solar, All of the time -- I started my solar market research career with Strategies Unlimited in 1998, moved to Navigant in 2005 and am now I am excited to announce the founding of a new company, Paula Mints Solar PV Market Research....
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