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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? Click Here to Register! ×

No End In Sight? The Struggle of Solar Equipment Makers

Ucilia Wang, Contributing Editor
November 30, 2012  |  14 Comments

The solar cell and panel manufacturing business isn't showing clear signs of recovery, and that has taken a toll on those who develop the equipment to make the factories run.

Tokyo Electron announced Friday that it has broken up a joint venture with Sharp for developing machines for making amorphous silicon thin films. The two companies formed the alliance back in 2008 and came up with chemical vapor deposition tools.

Back then, amorphous silicon thin films still seemed like a promising technology, when startups and larger rivals were announcing ambitious plans to build factories. But there were also hot debates about the technology’s chances of making it big. A former photovoltaic program manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Tom Surek, told the audience of a solar conference in 2009 that the costs and the anticipated price declines for amorphous silicon — as well as copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS) thin films — made those technologies uncompetitive.

And here we are today. Neither amorphous silicon nor CIGS plays a significant role in the gigawatt world of solar business. Venture-backed Signet Solar, an amorphous silicon thin film startup, finally filed for bankruptcy, two years after it shuttered the operation, reported the San Francisco Business Journal this week.

Centrotherm, which has worked on standardized CIGS thin film manufacturing, filed for bankruptcy in July this year.

Tokyo Electron hasn’t given up on amorphous silicon thin film though. Earlier this week, the company said it had completed the purchase of Oerlikon Solar, the Swiss firm that was Applied Materials’ chief rival. Applied Materials stopped selling its SunFab line in 2010 to focus on catering to makers of crystalline silicon solar cells. Earlier this month, Applied said it needed to pull back its solar investments even more than it previously anticipated, though it has yet to provide details.

Applied’s other big rival, GT Advanced Technologies, meanwhile, is pushing hard to expand into non-solar markets. The company just bought Twin Creeks Technologies for a cool $10 million and plans to use Twin Creeks’ technology not just for solar but also for making LED chips and scratch-resistant screens for consumer electronics such as smart phones.

“If you don’t plant seeds, your farm shrinks,” GT’s CEO, Tom Gutierrez, told financial analysts earlier this month.

Twin Creeks had raised nearly $100 million when I wrote about the launch of its equipment to make ultra-thin silicon wafers in March this year. While making super thin wafers can cut costs, the savings aren’t as significant these days. The prices for silicon were falling quickly during the time when Twin Creeks was finalizing its equipment design and ready it for the commercial rollout.

Investors will be hard pressed to put money into solar equipment development like what had been done with Twin Creeks, which is too bad because photovoltaic technology has a long way to go to improve how well it can convert sunlight into electricity. 

Lead image: Black stormy clouds via Shutterstock

14 Comments

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Louis Shaffer
Louis Shaffer
December 10, 2012
Good article. Amorphous was a good idea when silicon was expensive, but it is really hard to bring costs down to match the low efficiency. I think TEL will really regret buying Oerlikion.

CIGS and CdTe on the other hand have good efficiencies and prices that will clearly drop as volumes go up. I would not be surprised if in 10 years a large portion of solar is thin film and dye (plastics). Ultimately, the cost of things comes down to material usage and manufacturing cost. This will limit normal C-Si solar at some point, because at some point the cost of the substrate can't go down any more.
John Bronson
John Bronson
December 5, 2012
@oma-graves

John Doe IS buying solar equimpent. Solar equipment made in China. This is why the manufacturers in the OP are struggling. This has nothing to do with "power densities", or overall costs. It has to do with the difference in cost between Chinese made equipment, and equipment from traditional solar manufacturers.

China has growth, the US EU and Japan do not. What the US needs to do to compete is to get rid of the labor unions, lawsuits, and many government regulations.
Oma Graves
Oma Graves
December 5, 2012
Cudos to ecodirect for pointing out the price of an inverter. When you're right, you're right.

However, the original question of this article goes to the "Struggle of solar equipment manufacturers."

Even with "Incentives" the industry is struggling. I maintain, that until the power densities go up, the prices come down, and John Doe home owner can realisticly go to something like an appliance store and buy a system without a loan, the industry will continue to struggle.

There are so many other issues that go into that statement above. Of some importance is the fact we are a handful of technilogicaly gifted people that can have an intelligent conversation about PV. Most of the John Doe home owners of the world can't. It's not like a dishwasher. They may not know how to fix it if there is a problem but they do know how to operate it. And don't tell me there's no need to get hands on with a power system.

ortexgraves.com
thomas baxter
thomas baxter
December 3, 2012
Oma, a 7-10kw SMA grid tie inverter costs around $3,500. SMA is the Rolls Royce of the industry. You would probably be amazed by how fast prices have fallen in the last few years.
Diego Matter
Diego Matter
December 2, 2012
oma-graves

We will install a 5.5kW PV-system on our house in Australia on the 6th of December 2012.

Cost: $12000 fully installed, including online monitoring.

This system will produce electricity for at least 25 years. All the components are quality components and have a 10 year warranty for the inverter and a 25 year 85% output warranty for the Trina panels.

You wrote: "COST is the biggest problem with Solar Power (PV) today. From the cost of the PV cells to the inverter equipment, it is very expensive. Pay back is long."

I don't think that 4 years pay back is very long. After that never ever an electricity bill for at least 25 years. And because the system is twice as big as to what we need for electricity - the utility will pay us back - $3000 a year!

Oma also wrote: "Reduce the cost and it will get used a lot more. Right now solar power gets used by a handful of ardent techies, and die hard 'off the gridders'. However, as of today, the best that can be said for most home solar installations is that it keeps a few lights on in the house."

Where are you living man? Wake up! "most solar installation only power a few lights"? Pew! Liar!

You spew untruth after untruth without a blink of an eye. Are you paid by the fossil and nuclear industries? Indeed I think you are.

Solar is here to stay, is more than affordable and not only for "a handful of ardent techies, and die hard 'off the gridders".

Oma, if you can lease a solar system in the U.S. and it delivers cheaper electricity from day one, do you really think this isn't solar's prime time. Wake up and stop your hatred against solar!

The only market solar can't compete right now is for big power plants. There wind, tidal energy, biomass and others are viable. Big power plants are usually the domain of the utilities. That is why the don't like PV. It doesn't work for them and is in residential form a threat to their monopoly.
John Bronson
John Bronson
December 2, 2012
oma-graves wrote:

'Look, my whole point in this whole exercise is that as interesting as PV may be, until the power densities get up, and it is made available to the end user it will never be a strong thriving industry. It will never be a good alternative for the long term power needs of this country.'

If 100%/yr growth is not 'thriving', then IDK what is. The problem for US solar manufacturers is the same as any other US industry getting undercut by Chinese imports. However, US manufacturers do not represent the entire industry. PV installers ARE thriving.

Where I live (Hawaii) payback is 5 years. PV is now cheaper than oil, nuclear, or even new coal plants. PV will be cheaper than gas in a few years. Panel prices are already below $1/watt retail.

http://pvdepot.com/

Commercial fusion is a long way off. We don't even have materials yet that can withstand the constant neutron bombardment.
John Ihle
John Ihle
December 2, 2012
Oma.

I wasn't inferring the payback is 20 years necessarily. My point was generally you have to look 20 years out, at least, when comparing pv or wind with fossil fuels. And I was referring to residential point of use not wholesale pv which is a different matter altogether.

The payback in my area is less than 10 years because of current cost of energy and projected costs in a 10 year period. But I'm also factoring in the itc, etc. For example next year cost of energy with my utility are jumping about 13% subsequent years there are rate hikes that rise with inflation and other factors.

Costs of pv are too high for most homeowners, when considering traditional investment protocols, but there are other ways of developing and financing pv on the retail side. A utility in my region is working with community solar that allows ratepayers to invest in local projects utilzing sort of a virtual net metering approach to energy development. There are other ways such as lease backs that some are using that offer power from pv at a lower rate than their current utility does with no upfront costs. There will be more creative finance models in the future.

Eliseo, you should check out 350.org. They have a national "Divest from Coal" project going that is gaining support on college campuses.
Oma Graves
Oma Graves
December 2, 2012
@rfreeh If you are talking for a PV utility plant and being 95% efficient that is still a huge air conditioning bill if you are trying to operate a 600 or more mw facility.

If you are talking retail end user, the percentages are actually higher. The average house takes 7 to 10 kw to operate. An inverter of that capacity and built to handle the rigors of starting surges of the various appliances is going to be very expensive. Good ball park to start is $5000.00. That's without getting into the cost of the PV cells. That's not practicle to most home/end users.

Finally fusion does exist. It may be accurate to say that there is not an operating facility but the TRUTH (Wang) is that there is an Italian-Russian research project called "IGNITOR" that has demonstrated fusion reaction for 4 seconds. In that same vein, there is the whole ITER.org project that is being built in France.

It is a consortium of the major capitalist countries like France, USA, Russian, China, and others. They are working to get from fossil fuels as a source of energy.

Let's not forget the team that's working at the National Ignition Facility over at Lawrence Livermore National Labs. They're producing fusion with pellets.

Look, my whole point in this whole exercise is that as interesting as PV may be, until the power densities get up, and it is made available to the end user it will never be a strong thriving industry. It will never be a good alternative for the long term power needs of this country.

With fusion energy, the power densities are off the charts, it's clean, and if economic laws were allowed to go unfettered then it would be very cheap too, just because you can produce so much of it.

Mr Wang, here is where your comments are accurate, Why aren't the politicians, and environmentalist pushing this harder? What is the truth of their motivations?

Thanks for the dialog folks.

ortexgraves.com
ELISEO SEBASTIAN
ELISEO SEBASTIAN
December 1, 2012
Ucilia Wang is a journalist, I understand the role of informing perhaps with an air of discouragement or lack of enthusiasm but who use small scale installation panels isolated from the mains are convinced that it is better to use a 50W panel a hundred candles.
Personally I dare say that all this writing is not the whole truth until I can think of that is managing the capitalists who use and will use coal, oil and all fossil because capital moves mountains, infrastructure and manpower.
Robert Freehling
Robert Freehling
December 1, 2012
COST is the biggest problem with fusion power generators; that and the fact that they don't yet exist.
Robert Freehling
Robert Freehling
December 1, 2012
Today's solar DC to AC inverters are on average 95% plus efficient, with state of art running as high as 98%. So there is little to no efficiency gain by going with DC as there would have been, say 20 or 30 years ago. Inverters add maybe 10% to 15% to the cost of a solar PV system, but make it possible to interconnect with the grid, use existing wiring in buildings, and run standard appliances. The justification for inverters is overwhelming.
Oma Graves
Oma Graves
December 1, 2012
Okay John:

First of all to have a dissenting point of view is one thing. However, calling some "Ignorant" is quite another. That in itself, is ignorant.

I've been in the power industry for 35 years servicing, installing, selling critical power for data centers.

You, on the one hand, I think are talking about central PV generating facility. On the other hand, I am talking about 'point of use', or end user applications.

A PV central generating facility capable of generating the 100's or 1000's of mw needed to make a central generating plant viable would be a huge engineering undertaking that would be prohibitavly expensive. (Recently I scanned an article about a plant in India that had the capacity of 650mw that required 2000 acres for their solar field.)The inverters, the static switches, the constant ongoing maintenance (software and hardware upgrades as a minimum, not to mention the relativly clean environment that must be maintained for the inverters and static switches. All this is very expensive, and as a minimum will be passed on the end user. The end user will see a net increase in their bill for all that.

The retail level more readily answers the question of PV being a long term strong industry. Without the end user possibilities, the PV will be limited to utility type generation.

The point of making the end user loads DC is valid.
The point about making the whole house DC is valid.

20 year pay back is too long at the retail/end user level.

You mention that PV is environmentally sound also. You're right. However, there is another technology that is environmentally sound also, FUSION ENERGY. You may say that it's not available today. Cheap PV isn't available either. More importantly, with a different set of political priorities in energy, fusion makes more sense. It would be a more predictable long term source of energy, higher power densities would help augment the cost, and it is very clean.

ortexgraves.com
John Ihle
John Ihle
December 1, 2012
You're speaking about retail rates and you couldn't be more wrong whether you go off grid or interconnect to a utility, Oma. You should crunch real numbers before you run your pen.

Granted, the 30% itc, macrs allow businesses to enhance roi/irr..

but from a long term view, 20 years and/or more, pv can be excellent economically. Especially when viewing environmental rules (from an economic perspective) and associated rate hike risks, rate hikes due to cola, rising maintenance costs on aging fossil fuel plants, and more all of which gets passed on to ratepayers.

Not to mention local economic activity associated with distributed generation which is hardly ever discussed.

Investing in pv, from a residential rate payer perspective, is a different way to look at investment. Most of us, unfortunately, are used to having our generation come from 100's of miles away. Most people do not look at long term energy investment for their homes as realistic mainly, I think, because of their not being very familiar with the technology or how reliable it is.

Also, pv and clean energy has been associated with the environment, which on one hand is good obviously, but on the other hand the eocnomic argument isn't made by most. The econoimcs are significant especially when looking at long term costs and risks associated with fossil fuels.

You're other comments are ignorant, too. It's ok to be ignorant, we all are on many issues, but you should dig into the numbers and the technology that is available today. The future is bright for pv and other clean energy technologies because, for several reasons moving forward, fossil fuels and central station generation simply will not be able to compete with clean dg.

I know some hate the term "grid parity" but it is here, right now (in Minnesota which is not known for its solar potential) on the retail side especially when taking long term views.
Oma Graves
Oma Graves
December 1, 2012
COST is the biggest problem with Solar Power (PV) today. From the cost of the PV cells to the inverter equipment, it is very expensive. Pay back is long. Reduce the cost and it will get used a lot more.
Right now solar power gets used by a handful of ardent techies, and die hard 'off the gridders'. However, as of today, the best that can be said for most home solar installations is that it keeps a few lights on in the house. You can, of course buy the expensive AC 'INVERTER' and run the motorized appliances too, but there it is, the inverters are very expensive and a maintenance issue.
Solar power (PV) is a DC (Direct Current) source. It follows then that the loads supplied by a solar source should be DC.
If solar power is to ever get into the main stream, the appliance engineers must take a lesson from history. That is, when Edison first invented the dynamo it was D.C. (Direct Current). DC is more efficient than AC with less losses, no leads, lags, kvar's and such. Indeed, the only reason AC is needed is for transmission across long distances. Once you get to the load it is no longer required.
The interesting thing is that there are double wound motors available today. That is, they can run on AC or DC. It's a matter of a selector switch.
Again, solar power is a DC source. If you make all the loads DC, then the system becomes much more efficient and less expensive to own and operate. Pay back is quicker.
A simple summary would be, bring AC to the house, convert it to DC, run the whole house instead of just the lights, start getting a real payback. There is more, of course, but the idea is there.
Ortexgraves.com

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Ucilia Wang

Ucilia Wang

Ucilia Wang is a California-based freelance journalist who writes about renewable energy. She previously was the associate editor at Greentech Media and a staff writer covering the semiconductor industry at Red Herring. In addition to Renewable...
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