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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? ×

Tackling the Renewable Energy Transmission Tiger - Is There Hope? Is There Help?

Russel E. Smith, Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association
January 10, 2012  |  19 Comments

Building transmission to accommodate utility-scale renewable energy generation in the U.S. is seen as essential by much of the renewable energy industry. But can it be justified? Doing so will necessarily involve constructing some of the longest stretches of wire ever undertaken in this country. Much of the best wind and solar resource is located quite distant from the load. Ultimately, thousands of miles of huge power lines will have to be built. It is not illogical to ask whether investment in such massive infrastructure "costs too much and provides too little." It is also not illogical to answer "no," not if the value proposition is laid out appropriately and a well crafted policy and regulatory approach can be established that effectively addresses the issues.

Opponents to large remote installations in the renewable energy arena suggest that focusing on distributed renewable generation and minimizing utility-scale development is the right thing to do. There are, it is said, more than enough rooftops and open spaces near the load for solar to provide plenty of energy while offering many advantages over remote wind or solar plants. Besides, the damage large installations and transmission lines do to wildlife and the environment is unacceptable. Government policies should be focused on encouraging the de-centralized renewables approach.

Opponents of renewable energy in general argue that policies supporting its development are silly, if not criminal. In their view the renewable energy industry is, at best, a pipe dream of clueless hippies and leftists, and at worst, part of an elaborate scheme to defraud the public and run the fossil fuel and nuclear industries out of business. Their mantra is that government should not pick winners and losers, and should not impose mandates that boost resources unable to compete in the “free market.”  Further, a major justification for pursuing renewable energy, and hence building transmission, is global warming — a hoax fostered by a conspiracy to massively transfer wealth from the developed to the under developed world. And finally, it is wrong to saddle the public with the unnecessary cost supporting renewable energy since the “shale play” will provide enough inexpensive U.S. natural gas to last for over 100 years.

Against this backdrop of differing opposition, and in spite of current economic challenges, the utility-scale wind industry has continued to build projects. And the large-scale solar sector is poised to follow in wind’s footsteps. Realists know renewables are not going to dominate any time soon, but diversification is a necessity, infinite trumps finite, and cleanest trumps “cleaner.” We need as much renewable energy as we can get as soon as we can get it. And that means utility-scale and transmission. While we must pursue every reasonable application, no approach can deliver as much renewable energy in as short a timeframe.  While currently experiencing especially challenging times, renewable energy development will continue in this country and around the world. And policies in support will continue to be pursued.

Texas was confronted with issues relating to lack of transmission capability before much of the rest of the nation due to the size and pace of wind project development. In order to relieve resulting congestion on the grid, and to maximize development of its huge wind resource, it became apparent that extensive transmission infrastructure would have to be built to move power from west to east. The question was how to go about accomplishing that. Because of its unique circumstance wherein the largest portion of the state is served by an electric grid (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas - ERCOT) that is separate from the rest of the country and under limited Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) jurisdiction, it had to do so in relative isolation.

Daunting issues arose — transmission wouldn’t be built without certainty that there would be generation to serve, and wind projects would be held back pending the guarantee of adequate transmission; determining how much infrastructure was needed to facilitate what amount of generation and where each should be placed; what were the implications and impacts of lines crossing into portions of the state outside of ERCOT under FERC jurisdiction; how much should be invested; who should pay for what from point of interconnection forward; who would build the transmission; and how could the process be expedited?

After some three years of analysis and stakeholder input, the Texas Legislature passed the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) law in 2005 establishing procedures to address these and other related issues. Implementation is now under way with over $6 billion in transmission to be completed. As the process unfolded additional challenges have arisen such as NIMBY efforts, understanding the impacts of the new nodal pricing rules being implemented, balancing the grid with increasing variable resources online, and determining the role and ownership of electricity storage on the grid. Today the CREZ law is under attack by renewable energy opponents emboldened by the current polarized political atmosphere using many of the justifications mentioned earlier to try and halt the program.

Most of these same issues and challenges are confronting the renewable energy industry across the rest of the country but within a different regulatory climate with full FERC jurisdiction. FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff addressed that fact in a recent Texas Tribune interview:

I think Texas can learn from the rest of the country that the ability to have markets across borders is a very positive thing — and across regions — and I’d encourage Texas to look into how that can be facilitated and still potentially maintain their jurisdiction…I’m nothing but impressed with the transmission project that the Texas PUC put together for moving that west wind into the central and eastern parts of Texas. It seemed anyway to me an extremely efficient process as far as how the different developers were selected, and a very efficient process with respect to the siting and the entire development of it. [It was done] in a very expeditious manner and a manner that is probably unprecedented with respect to a transmission project of that size anywhere in the country.

Can and should the Texas approach be imprinted on the rest of the country, or is it unique to this state and the timeframe in which the policies were adopted? One thing is certain, no other region of the country has dealt with these issues to the extent we have in Texas. While the regulatory regime is different elsewhere, careful analysis of the Texas policy structure should be helpful. And ongoing observation of its implementation would be wise in these times of knee-jerk opposition and policy uncertainty.

Russel E. Smith, Executive Director of the Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association (TREIA) will be moderator for a session titled “Transmission Access and Lessons from ERCOT and the Pacific Norhwest” during the Renewable Energy World Conference (Feb. 14-16, 2012) in Long Beach, California. The session, scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 15, from 1:30 to 3:00 p.m., features top experts in Texas’ CREZ law development and implementation, as well as key representation from FERC.

19 Comments

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Dick Maclay
Dick Maclay
January 17, 2012
Oops, I should have said rooftop solar becomes economically viable somewhere around $3000 / kW, which is around $3.00 per watt. (So whats a factor of 1000 among friends.) At around this price its total value to customers makes it attractive without subsidies if they can use the power when the grid is unavailable. That is a big part of the value of local generation. We do see some utility scale projects promising to come in at only about 33% above that at the busbar. With required transmission it is significantly more and there is no customer reliability value in central solar. Last saw the best number for rooftop solar at $6.00 per watt or a bit higher. So once the cost of rooftop solar falls by about half the utilities are in trouble.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 17, 2012
And, as to real costs, a recent analysis says:

Germany had around 19 GWe of nuclear power so this works out to 90 billion euro per GWe. Compare that to the cost of new nuclear at 5.6 billion euro for 1.6 GWe or 3.5 billion euro per GWe

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190704577026110866409848.html.

Even with cost overruns this estimate for 'renewables' it 10x the cost of conventional nuclear.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 17, 2012
Actually, Anon ol' boy, 20% efficient solar cells are now at $1/Watt and with no land & other costs common to wind, etc.
Dick Maclay
Dick Maclay
January 16, 2012
The social usefulness of a resource is its NET value, i.e. Value - Cost. Ability to reliably generate on air conditioning peaks is extremely valuable. The value of energy during off-peak hours is less than the cost of natural gas fuel burned in an efficient combined cycle. Today that is under 2 cents/kwh range. It is that low because turning off a combined cycle (unless its a less efficient aero derivative) damages the machine, so its cheaper to run it at an hourly loss than stand the cost of repairs necessitated by shutting down.

Unfortunately, wind power has proven to produce 5% or less of rated capacity when demand is high, so its capacity value per kw installed has to be multiplied by a number no higher than 5% of installed capacity. And pure energy, wind's forte, is worth no more than 2 cents per kwh for the next 100 year or so.

If centralized wind generation can produce energy at no more than 2 cents per kwh including the cost of the plant and the transmission (all those billions of dollars) it is a good deal. Otherwise we would be wise to forget about it.

Solar has the virtue of producing power on days when AC loads are high since both are driven by bright sun. There is still a 4 hour offset between max solar generation and max load to deal with.

Distributed generation is valuable in reducing the need for T&D. If it can island it also adds reliability value that can be a major factor in overall economics today. And our increasingly electronic world is adding constantly to the value of reliability. In the end it is difficult to figure how anything will beat rooftop solar for a significant portion of daytime generation when the price point goes below $3.00 per kW or thereabouts.

Nice to see from the west coast that for once Texas is taking the crazy title from California.
ANONYMOUS
January 16, 2012
What will be done with all of the nuclear waste?
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
January 13, 2012
Rolf: regardless of whether you like nukes or not, you shouldn't oversell. In 2011, there were many unexpected shutdowns including several that were weather related as well as several that were safety related.
Anna Virginia - 2x earthquake damage (still down for the hurricane)
Lusby Maryland - hurricane damage
Oyster Creek - hurricane - precutionary
Brunswick NC - 2x - hurricane precautionary
Waynesboro GA - 1x - electrical fault
Oyster Creek - -10% - mechanical fault
Indian point - 1x - mechanical fault
New London CT - 1x70% - hurricane - precautionary
OK I give up ... the list is too long and I haven't even touched on floods, tornados, and still more seismic events.
The fact that complex systems can fail unexpectedly is neither good or bad - its just a fact. Unexpected of course does not mean not predicted; however, stats like MTBF and MTTR are just estimators. For instance, if someone could predict when a cooling tube is going to fail precisely, they'd make a mint. Severe weather happens, siesmic events happen - just as unexpectedly (but not unpredictably) as system failures. As an example, on one day NRC reported 29 of 104 reactors shutdown.
A few good years does not a complete history make and 2011 was a bitch. More to the point, if you're going to use annual average capacity factor numbers for one you've got to do it for everyone. You can't compare a weekly average for one as opposed to a yearly average for another. Capacity factor is what it is and it varies from instance to instance - the mean value is relevant to predictability and generally used for LCOE calculations while variability (about the mean) is a measure of firmness: different things.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 12, 2012
No need for gas at all, since at best we've 100 years of it anyway. >700C molten salt reactors can make fuel for planes, etc. from CO2 & H2O in air.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 12, 2012
Combined cycle NG and nuclear are it for replacing coal. Nothing else works.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 12, 2012
Let's see, Texas wants to have their own regulatory system, yet wants to cover itself with windmills & gas wells to sell energy outside Texas in the way Texas wants. Hmmm. what was that Texas company doing so well years back playing bankster games with power. Oh yeah, Enron.

"Much of the best wind and solar resource is located quite distant from the load." -- this shows the ignorifying effect of profit on some folks, of which Texas always seems to have a good population. The low power density of wind added to its ~30% duty cycle make it perfect for waste & profit. It takes 700 tons of fossil-fuel-processed materials to erect just 1MW of wind power, not counting transmission. Surprise? How do we think the 400-ton tower a 5MW top-line Siemens windmill is made? 400 tones of steel came from far more ore, plus 2000 tons of coal (must be coal), plus 1000 cubic meters of concrete, from mined limestone & aggregate, with the limestone kilned via fossil fuel, yadda, yadda, yadda. And, that doesn't even count the 100x need for fresh water per ton of steel, nor the fuel needed to transport materials, build roads, cut down trees, more yaddas. And, no bond posted for cleanup when wind change.

Wind power is the subsidized fool's errand, yielding less than any solar per acre, and demanding more of grid control & transmission. Those needs certainly can make $ for Texas companies, at our expense. Then there are the Texans who rightly don't want windmills & transmission towers all over their lands, killing bird, bats, etc. that eat the bugs that would eat crops.

Wind, hydro, geo & solar 'farms' are indeed always far from loads, wasting billions (like TX $6B) in transmission costs and losing ~10% of all power in transmission.

We need only 3 sources: efficiency (we waste 50% today), local solar (eliminates line loss, land waste) which is already far more efficient than wind & aiming at >2MW/acre, and safe nuclear (www.thoriumremix.com/2011).
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 12, 2012
ERCOT forecast to 2020 for Texas

Fuel Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Biomass 9 4 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194
Coal 1 9,034 1 9,959 19,959 19,959 19,959 19,959 20,619 20,619 20,619 20,619
Natural Gas 4 6,943 4 7,665 47,705 48,502 50,679 50,697 51,014 51,014 51,014 51,014
Nuclear 5 ,131 5 ,131 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131
Other 6 01 6 01 601 601 601 1,221 1,841 1,841 1,841 1,841
Hydro 5 37 5 37 537 537 537 537 537 537 537 537
Wind 8 35 8 88 933 953 953 953 953 953 953 953
Solar - 9 0 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Total 7 3,174 7 5,065 75,150 75,967 78,144 78,781 80,378 80,378 80,378 80,378
Fuel Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Biomass 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Coal 26.0% 26.6% 26.6% 26.3% 25.5% 25.3% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7%
Natural Gas 64.2% 63.5% 63.5% 63.8% 64.9% 64.4% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5%
Nuclear 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
Other 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Hydro 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Wind 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Solar 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Summer
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 12, 2012
Wind and solar combined are about one quad of the 100 quads of energy the US consumes annually. They simply lack the scale and dispatchability to do much despite the billions in subsidies and the must take legislation.
Howard Johnson
Howard Johnson
January 12, 2012
Rooftop solar works for me:

http://www.mpsaz.org/rmhs/staff/hljohnson/solar_information/
Norm Rhett
Norm Rhett
January 11, 2012
From the sobering but very informative video 'http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/seminars/player.php?flv=lewis/natelewis2-23-2010.f4v', it would take ~10,000 of the largest nuclear plants (1 gigawatt) to supply the present world consumption of energy. They are very expensive and last at most about 50 years. Starting now we would have to commission a new one every day indefinitely and as the intense radiation embrittles reactor vessels, decommission them at the same rate. Note, however, that consumption would continue to rise, so 10,000 might be half or a third of the required number.

It would be far better to dramatically improve energy efficiency and accelerate development of lower cost and more scalable energy sources.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 11, 2012
That 91% refers to all 104 US reactors all the time. The 9% is normally the scheduled every 2 year fuel replacement cycle.Nuclear power is dispatchable because it is always there. 68 of the reactors are approved for 60 years of operation, and the NRC is studying the possibility of 80 years for all of them
Wind turbines turn themselves on and off. Wind turbines might give you 20-25 years then you have to get rid of 150 tons of steel and cement. They are an expensive scam.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
January 11, 2012
Nuke boys love that stat. Of course 91% refers only to reactors that are not shut down for one reason or another. Certainly not the cohort of reactors that were supposed to operate for 40 years and were shut down after only a few years. Certainly not the ones that are off-line for refueling or major maintenance. Basically, all the stat says is that when they're up, they're up. They can't be dispatched so the system operator has to compensate for their lack of variability to the detriment of other producers and worst case, has to find places to dump excess power even at negative prices and someone has to pay for curtailment charges. And, the unscheduled downtime stat isn't good, as you know.
The best thing that can be said is they're not coal fired.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 11, 2012
Wind fiasco is not isolated. 2010-2011 capacity factor for US wind 27%. Wind needs major backup. US nuclear now at 91% capacity factor and the 9% is scheduled.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
January 11, 2012
Should you produce electricity where it is most efficient to do so and then transport it to where it is needed? Duh.
@sj_kac: regardless of the merit of your point, this is not specific to renewable sources - all central plants require transmission. Take this elsewhere.
@rolf-westgard: sample size 1 is always a bad statistic. A certain nuke was taken off-line due to a flood at a time its output was needed. The entire eastern grid was flattened by a coal plant going off-line when most needed. One day, Spain produced all of its electricity from renewables. Isolated events that are 'interesting' but not typical.

The argument for/against centralized versus distributed generation is tenuous. On the one hand, transmission contributes ~32% of the end user cost. On the other hand, best case siting results in substantial increases in production. In the case of wind power, it is apparent that siting is quite important and that a large clear zone is required for sound abatement. Solar rooftop installations suffer from inefficient orientation, limited/no tracking, partial shading, atmospheric haze(smog)and low maintenance, all of which reduce efficiency. Additionally, roof top installations suffer from lack of scale and structural considerations which increase the installed and operating cost. NIMBYism is also a factor limiting rooftop use. Central plants have a lower capex and can easily offset transmission costs through increased efficiency - maintenance alone being a huge advantage. Be that as it may, in places where there is grid or local distribution congestion or viable behind the meter loads, rooftop makes sense. There are exceptions such as Walmart installations of large arrays on trackers on buildings engineered to support a solar array - this represents a small fraction of available rooftop area.
In any case, you've got to support large central plants as that's the paradigm that the large power producers work to.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
January 11, 2012
These lines are a total waste for intermittent energy sources that are idle most of the time. Look at ERCOT's data for Texas wind - supplies about 1% of demand in summer when demand is highest. During the UK winter cold spell all of those turbines supplied a tiny fraction of 1% of demand, a total of 20 MW out of 50,000 MW total demand. Industrial wind is an expensive joke. The Duke of Edinburgh is correct about "fairy tales".
Kenneth Crook
Kenneth Crook
January 11, 2012
What happened to the threat high power transmission lines pose to people's health. Has the left moved on to other issues, or was that another bogus scare to drum up money from lawsuits?

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Russel Smith

Russel Smith

Russel Smith has 33 years experience in the renewable energy industry promoting renewable energy issues in Texas. Smith helped found the educational non-profit Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES) in 1976 and became Executive Director of...
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