Everyone's looking for those promising future markets for solar energy development, given Germany's star gradually losing some of its luster and various markets undergoing policy shifts. But Europe still offers the best bet for solar, and a couple of countries in particular, says Lux Research

January 5, 2011 - Everyone's looking for those promising future markets for solar energy development, given Germany's star gradually losing some of its luster and various markets undergoing policy shifts. But Europe still offers the best bet for solar, and a couple of countries in particular, says Lux Research, updating its quarterly Solar Demand Forecaster.

Also making a good showing: Asian markets, with high IRRs in Malaysia (24.1%), Philippines (22.6%), and Japan (20.9%), promising to attract more demand into in 2012-2013.

  1. Portugal
  2. Cyprus
  3. Hawaii
  4. Greece
  5. Israel

Top five locations by IRR, 1Q12. (Source: Lux Research)


Overall the broader European market is still fairly consistent, held in check by its macroeconomic questions and individual countries' ability to pay out incentives, explained Matt Feinstein, who led the Lux forecast. Portugal still tops the list (it ranked #2 three months ago behind New Jersey) as one of the best IRRs; also scoring well are Cypress and Greece, pending the aforementioned financial woes.

Lux arrived at its top IRR locations by cataloguing subsidies, electricity rates and consumption data, and projected pricing for panels/systems for all 50 US states, 31 Chinese provinces and semiautonomous regions, and 75 countries/regions globally. Those were run through a LCOE model to identify best IRRs, lowest LCOEs, and where solar power is closest to grid parity (i.e. retail and wholesale electricity prices).