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Wind Energy Outlook 2012: An Uncertain Forecast

As 2011 closes, North American onshore wind power project developers are racing to start construction before the Dec. 31 sunset of the 1603 Grant in Lieu of Tax Credit and the 2012 expiration of the PTC.

Lindsay Morris, Associate Editor, Power Engineering
December 08, 2011  |  14 Comments

Onshore wind power is in a good place, at least through the end of 2012. Wind power has made up 35 percent of all new generating capacity added to the U.S. grid since 2007. That's twice what coal and nuclear combined have added in the last five years, according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). And as U.S. developers take advantage of federal tax credits for renewables through the end of 2012, it's possible that 2012 may result in the largest number of wind projects completed in one year.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2011, 8,400 megawatts (MW) of wind power capacity are under construction in U.S. and installed wind power capacity stands at 3,360 MW. This exceeds installations up to the same point in 2010 by 75 percent.

Duke Energy has recently positioned itself as a leader in terms of new wind developments. Since 2007, the company has invested more than $1.75 billion to build its fleet of 10 wind farms across the country. Just this year, Duke announced nearly 800 MW of new wind projects. In 2012, Duke plans to put an additional 770 MW of wind power into operation, according to Duke Energy Renewables President Greg Wolf.

Amongst Duke's recent undertakings is a 402-MW wind farm in Willacy County in West Texas. The Los Vientos I and II wind power projects are both expected to be online by the end of 2012. In addition to the Los Vientos wind power projects, Duke Energy Renewables announced four other new wind farms in 2011:

  • The 168-MW Ironwood wind power project in Ford County, Kan.
  • The 131-MW Cimarron II wind power project in Gray County, Kan.
  • The 69-MW Laurel Hill wind power project in Lycoming County, Penn.
  • The 20-MW Shirley wind power project in Glenmore, Wis., which is already in operation.

One of North America's top producers of renewable energy, NextEra Energy, announced plans this year to build the 200-MW Limon I Wind Energy Center near Limon, Colo. The project will use GE 1.6-MW turbines. Construction is expected to begin in the spring of 2012 and the project is slated to be operational by the end of 2012. NextEra could also build a second project, Limon II, at the same location. If approved, Limon II (also expected to come in at 200 MW) would be operational by the end of 2012.

Many wind projects were under the gun to begin construction under the temporary umbrella of the 1603 Treasury Grant Program, so it can be expected that 2012 will be a year of thousands of wind power MW being added to the U.S. electric grid. Under the 1603 program, a project must commence construction by Dec. 31, 2011 in order to qualify for the 30 percent grant in lieu of investment tax credit (ITC).

While Section 1603 will likely expire at year-end, the federal renewable energy production tax credit (PTC) will be a draw for wind developers starting construction in 2012. Under present law, the PTC provides an income tax credit of 2.2 cents/kWh for the production of electricity from utility-scale wind turbines. The PTC is set to expire on Dec. 31, 2012.

One of the many new builds taking advantage of the PTC is the 63-MW Kingdom Community Wind project being constructed in Lowell, Vt.

"This is a $156 million project," said Kingdom Wind spokeswoman Dorothy Schnure. "Provided the project is in service by the end of 2012, we will receive $44 million for the PTC."

The project, which commenced construction on Sept. 1, is being built along a three-mile portion of the Lowell Mountain range in Orleans County. The project will use 20 to 21 Vestas wind turbines.

DTE Energy also plans to take advantage of the PTC. Its $225 million project made up of three wind farms will use 1.6-MW GE turbines and have total a capacity of 110 MW. The Minden, Sigel and McKinley wind farms will be located on nearly 15,000 acres in eastern Michigan. Construction on the project will begin and be completed in 2012.

DTE Energy expects to add about 1,000 MW of renewable power, or about 10 percent of its sales, by 2015. Scott Simons, spokesman for DTE Energy, said the majority of that renewable energy - all but about 20 MW - will come from wind.

The long-term future of onshore wind power may be foggy, but 2012 will be a time for several wind projects to be completed and commenced. Developers will continue to reap the benefits of the PTC for projects commenced by the end of 2012. While AWEA is pushing for a four-year extension of the PTC, Elizabeth Salerno, director of industry data and analysis for AWEA, said wind developments post-2012 have a "question mark over them" for the time being due to the lack of long-term federal policy.

CANADA

By the end of 2011, it's expected that Canada will have installed 1,338 MW of new wind power capacity. That's remarkable growth when compared with the 690 MW of capacity installed in 2010, according to the Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA). The installations for 2011 are expected to bring $3.4 billion in investments for the year.

Ontario is slated to lead all provinces in new installed wind with 500 MW of capacity by year end. Seven other provinces, including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, all have projects being commissioned by the end of 2011.

In total, Canada is projected to have more than 5,300 MW of total installed wind capacity by the end of 2011. More than 6,000 MW of wind energy projects have contracts to be built over the next five years.

"Canada, and in particular Ontario, is emerging as a very competitive destination for wind energy investment globally," said Robert Hornung, president of CanWEA.

OFFSHORE WIND IN CANADA

Canada has experienced challenges with offshore wind projects recently. Trillium Power filed a lawsuit in September against the provincial government of Ontario, claiming that it unfairly cancelled all offshore wind projects. In February, the province put a moratorium on all offshore projects, saying it needs to do further studies about possible health effects.

Before the plug was pulled on offshore developments, Trillium had already spent about $5.3 million on its estimated 600 MW wind farm in Lake Ontario near Kingston. Its future loss of profits, however, added up to $2.25 billion, according to the lawsuit.

OUTLOOK 2012 OFFSHORE WIND — AN ERA OF RESEARCH

Many in the renewable energy industry have considered the U.S. permitting and financial climate to be hostile toward offshore wind developments ever since whispers of developments began in the early 2000s. Since offshore wind is an emerging North American technology, start-up costs are higher than onshore developments. That's why it was less than surprising that project cancellations became fairly common in 2011.

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14 Comments

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Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 5, 2012
DMMM... What I mean is what I said. Windmills require huge amounts of materials to build, all of which entail fossil-fuel combustion. A 5MW top-line Siemens machine needs 400 tons of steel. Each ton of steel needs 5 tons of coal -- must be coal. Each windmill foundation needs 1000cubic meters of concrete -- 1000 tons of limestone kilned via fossil fuel, mixed with mined/crushed aggregate, all transported & mixed via fossil fuel. Each windmill needs road access on land and more frequent maintenance via fossil fuelled vehicles. Then add in the insurance & transmission expenses, plus ~10% transmission loss when the props indeed turn. Sea installs are worse. Then add in the backup baseload needed -- Denmark needs 300MW available on any day to add/remove in service, if their wind forecast was off by only a foot or so per second, etc. And, the high variability of wind output means far more demanding & expensive grid interfacing/storage.

All for what? Wind is far less efficient than solar, especially local solar, with which it can't compete. Solar PV efficiency is capable of at least another efficiency doubling -- wind has none, despite current horizontal windmills being quite inefficient...
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/07/14/caltech-vertical-axis-wind-turbines-boost-wind-farm-power-efficiency-10x/
http://media.caltech.edu/press_releases/13430
http://tinyurl.com/6lt3bwz (gotta love this one)

At least 700 wasted tons per occasional MW makes no sense except to subsidized scammers. And when the winds change with climate...

http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/wind/a-less-mighty-wind
www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/us/21tttransmission.html?_r=1&hpw

Are you volunteering to move all the windmills, foundations, transmission lines, roads...? At least volunteer to clean up the dead birds/bats.
;]
DANIEL MARTIN-RIOS
DANIEL MARTIN-RIOS
January 4, 2012
What do you mean Dr AlexC?
Wind power with proper initial funding could be supplying all the North regions (Alaska ,Canada,Greenland ,Iceland ,Scottland ,Scandinavia ,Russia ,Japan )with all their power saving them contly fossil fuel use ,that is without mentioning how much cleaner it is for the enviroment
Those power generators do not need our expensive Navy to be patrolling them ,which made them cost effective
Will Deliver
Will Deliver
January 4, 2012
@DMMELLOW: Those countries are also large untapped areas for Solar Power! We need to support the development of renewable energy with transmission to the demand centers via a 'smart grid'.
Electrical distribution networks should also have local, distributed electricity storage (batteries). Maybe it will become standard equipment at electrical substations to have an hour worth of electrical storage. We can all be driving plug-in electric cars if we have better infrastructure.
Will Deliver
Will Deliver
January 4, 2012
At Christmas time I drove across Idaho, Montana & North Dakota... We had a 20-25 mile tailwind going east(Over 1,100 miles). Going west, we had 45 mph headwinds in ND, 35-45 mph in eastern Montana, dropping to 25 mph around Butte, and down to 20 mph by the time we got to Missoula, MT. The wind dropped further going into Idaho. That is a tremendous amount of horsepower! We should not be wasting that energy. We should be building wind turbines & transmission lines to send that power to the big cities that demand more electricity!
I am a big supporter of distributed solar power, especially on residential rooftops. But let's not waste the wind power that is available!
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
January 4, 2012
DMME... And, at 700tons/MW peak & ~10% transmission loss & <0.33 duty cycle, plus high maintenance, wind has no honest future without subsidy.

Your words are true, however, for solar on structures, since there are far more sq meters of sunlight roofs, etc. around the world than needed to meet peak daytime power needs, even with present, 20% efficient, $1/Watt cells. And, no land/sea/species are threatened by solar DG, unlike wind.

But, where rate/taxpayer $ can be gotten to subsidize the few via the many, subsidies will always distort reality.
DANIEL MARTIN-RIOS
DANIEL MARTIN-RIOS
January 4, 2012
Canada ,Russia,the Sahara countries ,Argentina ,Chile and Australia are untapped great sources of WIND POWER
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
December 20, 2011
Anuma, all the numbers in the world won't change the scientific reality that wind is solar energy inefficiently derived, and dependent more on location than solar itself. No one sensibly argues for either wind or solar 'farms', if one understands their realities, unless they're making some $ from such inefficient sources. Subsidies indeed distort economics and encourage fraud.

Local solar PV & hot water are already more efficient than any wind-power systems, or solar 'farms'. And, solar PV has 2 doublings of efficiency & watts/sq meter to go. Wind has none.

One can fib to others about wind, perhaps for personal benefit, but whether you're honest about it or not, others know fibs when they're uttered.
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
December 19, 2011
DrAlexC
Our Experience in India is Wind Energy has a major share in Renewable Energy Mix and Solar Power is nowhere eventhough now a lot of push is being given to Solar Power.Wind power 14989.00 ; Solar Power (SPV) 46.16 at the end of August 2011.
Hurdles to be overcome by research
Current electricity transmission and distribution systems have been designed and developed to manage more traditional generation technologies and are not ideal for CSP plants. Moreover, the fact that sunshine is intermittent poses a challenge in terms of efficient storage of surplus of energy.
In all solar thermal power stations,the mirrors have to track the sun's position. This sounds simpler than it is. The motors should ideally last for the entire life of the power station,but they should also work as precisely as possible all the time.
The Spanish industry association Protermosolar has presented a study which analyses the CSP industry's impact on the Spanish ecomnomy. The study was conducrted by the inrternationally renowned auditing firm Delottie and comes to failrly satisfactory findings. According to the study,CSP contributed 1.65 billion Euros to the country's goss domestic product(GDP) in 2010, whereas solar thermal electricity production cost the Spanish state some 185 million Euros in guaranteed feed – in tariffs. A typical solar thermal plant with 50 MW of output and 7.5 hours of heat storage has the biggest effect on GDP in the construction stage. The study said that during this period,costs of 192.1 million Euros are incurred,corresponding to 76.8 million Euros per pear for a 3 year construction period. Unsurprisingly,this figure drops in the operation stage and then levels off at around 44.3 million Euros(CSP Every degree counts,Sun & Wind Energy 12/2011,page 82).
Let us wait till more energy efficient solar systems emerge in the market so that investments in the sector are wise.
Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore (AP), India
E-mail: anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com
Will Deliver
Will Deliver
December 18, 2011
I believe wind blows more consistantly over water than over land. If we want steady power generation, we should have more wind turbines on the Great Lakes & off shore in the oceans. The population centers of the eastern US are close to the Great Lakes and the Atlantic Ocean. Let's encourage wind power closer to the population centers. The demand for electricity comes from the population centers.
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
December 17, 2011
Anumakonda -- sure, it'll boom, just as in the 1970's here, as long as we subsidize the few investors with tax & rate $ from the many. Oops, that's the definition of a scam, eh?

The Chinese are already doubting wind's future...
http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/wind/a-less-mighty-wind
www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/us/21tttransmission.html?_r=1&hpw

A little tough to move those 700 tons/MW peak, and the 200 cubic meters/MW peak of concrete foundation, and those transmission lines, and roads, and...

At lower efficiency & reliability than even present 20%-efficient solar PV, wind-power has no future, except maybe on islands or remote farms, as it has for 100 years. But even on islands, some islands, there's an issue isn't there? Visit the Caribbean and report n\back on how many windmills you see (and hear).
;]

For anyone caring about energy & our environment, check out things like David MacKay's 'Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air'... http://www.withouthotair.com/download.html

And here's some of our wind legacy from the '70s...
http://webecoist.com/2009/05/04/10-abandoned-renewable-energy-plants/
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
December 17, 2011
Wind Energy will boom in many countries including US, China, Germany, India etc.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore (AP), India
Wind Energy Expert
E-mail: anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
December 10, 2011
Solar DG (in local structures) meets all peak daytime needs. That's why Calif. now directly advocating & supporting this. With developing storage & EV charging on line (via cellular/web links), the storage issue is partly solved. The rest of storage needs will be solved via new methods as well as the current methods of adding flywheels in generator halls. True baseload, 24/7 is what new nuclear systems provide, for thousands of years... www.thoriumremix.com/2011

We've long skipped our obligation to ending coal/oil/gas/wind/solar-farm subsidies. We've wasted 49 years and endangered hundreds of millions around the world...
http://tinyurl.com/6xgpkfa

As the most recent young person (below) said, we've no time left...
http://tinyurl.com/bueq2ev
www.iea.org/w/bookshop/b.aspx?new=10

Young people acting adult...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQmz6Rbpnu0 (1992)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko3e6G_7GY4&feature=channel_video_title (Durban South Africa)

Wind is a silly now as it was in the 1970s. But, it makes $ for a few, eh?

http://webecoist.com/2009/05/04/10-abandoned-renewable-energy-plants/
http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/wind/a-less-mighty-wind
www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/us/21tttransmission.html?_r=1&hpw
www.forbes.com/2010/05/11/renewables-energy-oil-economy-opinions-contributors-robert-bryce_print.html
Dr. A. Cannara
Dr. A. Cannara
December 9, 2011
At ~700tons of fossil-fuel-processed material per MW, barely 1/2MW/acre some of the rime, permanent transmission loss & grid-storage/stability dependence & no cleanup bonds (1000 cubic yard foundations hard to dig out), we've got what? On yes, noise, animal kills, deforestation & wealth redistribution (from tax/rate payers to wind folks).

http://tinyurl.com/bl9vlc7 (burn, baby, burn)
www.keepersoftheblueridge.com/environmental-impact.html?mid=538

...cut those trees, build those roads & power lines. Show us the money?
;]
chris eddy
chris eddy
December 9, 2011
Another report which treats wind nameplate capacity the same as coal or nuke. They are apples and oranges. 8400 MW of wind does not produce anywhere near as much electricity as 8400 MW of coal or nuke. Each MW of installed coal or nuke capacity outputs as much as about 3 MWs of installed wind.

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Lindsay Morris

Lindsay Morris

I am an associate editor for Power Engineering magazine. I cover EPA's regulations for the power industry in detail. When it comes to renewables, I write regularly about solar and wind-related policies and technologies. I'm a native of...
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