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The Future of Clean Tech and Why I Can't Stop Thinking About China

Ron Pernick, Managing Director, Clean Edge
November 11, 2011  |  4 Comments

When Clint Wilder and I wrote our first book, The Clean Tech Revolution, we knew we needed to travel to China if we wanted to understand the future of clean tech. Mind you, our trip took place more than five years ago, well before most people uttered the words "China" and "clean tech" in the same breath. But it was becoming increasingly clear, even then, why China was going to be such a force to reckon with. Today, most businesspeople, investors, politicians, entrepreneurs, and students understand the Chinese clean-tech juggernaut, what it might mean to the U.S., and why we need to prepare.

So why is China really scaring me right now? Earlier this year I wrote in a column on why I think America can compete with China in the clean-tech race. And I still stand by those points. But a number of recent developments are making China’s aggressive push, and America’s relative clean-tech ambivalence, of increasing concern:

  1. The China Development Bank (CDB) is being relentless in its funding of clean-tech concerns. While American politicians battle it out over Solyndra’s collapse and potential loss to the government of $528 million, the Chinese are pumping billions into their clean-tech concerns, knowing full well that some of them will fail. The CDB put more than $30 billion in credit into its burgeoning solar companies in 2010, including Suntech Power, Trina, and Yingli. It recently announced financial commitments to ensure that its fledgling wind industry can join the ranks of GE, Vestas, and Siemens, allocating at least $15 billion in state-backed credit to China's biggest windmill makers Sinovel Wind Group and Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology. And China has plans to invest some $45 billion in smart-grid companies and technologies alone over the next five years. 

    These investments haven’t gone unnoticed in the U.S., and have been front and center in recent complaints that have claimed that China’s solar industry, for example, has an unfair trade advantage.
  2. One of the other things that make China and the U.S. so different is that Chinese national and regional leadership is now fully aligned behind clean tech as an economic development and jobs growth strategy. They aren’t fighting amongst themselves about whether they should support clean energy, but are instead fighting to lead in the sector. To put it simply, China believes in renewables. At the same time, our inept Congress dukes it out over one bad investment and seems increasingly polarized at every turn. We have states like California, Oregon, Connecticut, New York, and Colorado that are committed to clean tech, but without federal support they are left to figure out the puzzle mostly on their own. 
  3. China is getting ready to outsmart us. “When you look at the political leaders in China they are mostly scientists and engineers, many from the power industry,” says Jefferies managing director Jesse Pichel. “But in the U.S. politicians are mostly lawyers.” And it’s not just business and policy talent that seems to be expanding, but student achievement. Chinese students in Shanghai recently scored tops in the OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) evaluation tests for math, science, and reading. It’s important to note that PISA usually evaluates student performance for entire countries, so while Shanghai’s results are impressive they are not necessarily representative of all of China.  

China’s clean-tech push, of course, will be riddled with future obstacles, potholes, and challenges. For example, approximately a third of China’s wind power had not been connected to the grid by the end of 2010, highlighting issues with grid connectivity keeping up with new capacity additions. There have also been complaints of everything from exploding wind turbines to pollution concerns at solar PV manufacturing plants, demonstrating serious environmental and quality control issues that could cause significant roadblocks in the nation’s push for clean-tech dominance.  And, ongoing issues surrounding weak intellectual property protections in China continue to threaten foreign investment and participation within the country.

But do you think these business and infrastructure issues will unravel China’s commitment to its clean-tech build out? I don’t think so. Instead, China is redoubling its efforts in order to own as much of the clean-tech sector as it possibly can.

The U.S., on the other hand, has some political leaders that are ready to call it quits. The U.S. “can't compete with China to make solar panels and wind turbines,” U.S. Representative Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) recently told National Public Radio. Imagine if our earlier tech revolutionaries in aerospace, computing, and the Internet had policymakers with such weakened spines -- we’d be a mere shadow of our current selves.  

No doubt America faces its own unique challenges, but it’s not time to give up. Instead, let’s tap our entrepreneurial spirit, regain our clean-tech policy backbone, and get back in the business of 21st century innovation and leadership. The Chinese, I’m certain, will be doing nothing less.

Ron Pernick is cofounder and managing director of clean-tech research and advisory firm Clean Edge, co-author of The Clean Tech Revolution, and is currently working on his second book with Clint Wilder, Clean Tech Nation.

4 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
November 24, 2011
There is an old saying in the business world regarding technology: "Companies don't develop technology, companies buy technology".

The same could be said for countries like China. It is cheaper and more expedient for them to buy technology, rather than developing it internally. Of course the basic problem China has when it comes to developing technology is due to its collectivist economic environment, which naturally stifles the primary motive behind innovation: financial profit for the innovator.

Technology transfer to China is not just a problem in the renewable energy sector. It is also becoming a problem for industries such as aerospace. Development of new commercial aircraft is becoming so expensive that even the two remaining private OEM's (Boeing and Airbus) are having difficulty generating enough free cash flow to produce new aircraft designs.

In the next 20 or 30 years, China will likely take the lead in advanced commercial aircraft production, because the Chinese government is the only one that can absorb the $20billion in new aircraft development costs.

But in the end, the Chinese economic system will never succeed in producing true technology innovation like that of free market democracies. Financial gain is the most powerful stimulant to innovation.
lawrence elliott
lawrence elliott
November 17, 2011
One of the most fundamental issues we face in all of this, is a myopic view that in the world of capital and industry and the mega wealthy,that there's an us and them :as in China and the US.

Take a quick look at the vultures on Wall Street and the Crony Capitalists who now literally own the US government.

Anyone think for one minute that the most powerful players in this game feel the least bit of allegiance or loyalty to the USA? Maybe an 'odd man out' but it certainly is not the norm.

These folks live behind gates and high walls no different from the Kings who ruled Feudal Europe. Did these guys feel any guilt that the vast majority of their subjects lived lives no better than rats or stray dogs? Of course not.

You really think the modern day Economic Royalists have evolved beyond a feudal mentality?
Yes and I have some beachfront property in Arizona I'd like to sell you.

So long as we the 'little people',the %99, continue to bow and scrape before those with massive wealth and power we will simply never see any real progress in either economic development or advancement of the general population.

Just take a look at the lineup of Republican presidential candidates.Not one of them could ever be described as disadvantaged. Every one of them is a multimillionaire.

Most importantly not one of them possesses the intellect of an eight year old. All of them have a firmly attached umbilical cord leading to the upper 1% of the holders of wealth. The wealthy who amass more and more wealth not in spite of the USA's general decline but because of its decline.

And anyone is surprised when after all the 'votin's done' things only get worse?

For all who are surprised just remember I'll even include at no extra cost a 60 foot luxury yacht along with the property in Arizona I mentioned.

And vultures? Winged variety or those on wall street?
They'll strip a healthy country to the bone or just eat what's left of a rotted corpse. Bon appetite.
Phil Manke
Phil Manke
November 15, 2011
I have a sense that both parties are complicit in maintaining the status quo. Old business as usual. 'Follow the money'. Both parties get their support from establish profit centers, and the leadership is not up to swinging the direction to more progressive policies. It seems the states must pull up their own bootstraps and employ something like SREC's to incentivize solar energy. It can be done without outside cash, or without govt funds at all, for that matter. SREC's are credit for energy production, whatever sustainable source it comes from. Right now, many states that have carbon cost structures are paying that money right back to the Ute's for their wind generation because they don't have a solar carve-out % in place. If the general public and small business could get a premium for solar energy the PV panels and water heating equipment, from wherever, would be flooding the markets. The industry knows this, and we see push back against China for their foresight, which threatens USA and European establishments. The US production capability seems to have gone to seed with old beliefs and crying for protection. The states could change this, but conservative states are stuck in the past also.
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
November 12, 2011
Could we please face facts?

It is not a case of "our inept Congress" blocking clean energy in the US.

It is Republicans in Congress that are causing us to lose to the Chinese.

Just say "Republican". Let's quit pussy-footing around the truth.

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Ron Pernick

Ron Pernick

Ron Pernick, co-founder and principal of Clean Edge and co-author of The Clean Tech Revolution, is an accomplished market research, publishing, and business development entrepreneur with two decades of high-tech experience. At Clean Edge...
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