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Chinese and U.S. Politics and the Solyndra Bankruptcy

Lou Schwartz, China Strategies
September 21, 2011  |  13 Comments

In the universe occupied by gleeful Luddites and cynical political leaders, who appear to be celebrating the Solyndra bankruptcy filing, the U.S. government should play no role in economic development and national security. In their myopic view, the national highway system initiated by the Eisenhower administration, which gave such profound impetus to the development of the U.S. automotive and real estate industries while strengthening our national defense, would now be regarded as wasteful spending.

The simplistic conclusion that our modern day Philistines and crass opportunists peddle, is that the Obama administration is profligate and inept, when in fact, the Obama administration’s support of Solyndra was in the great American tradition of supporting technological innovations that have led to countless emerging industries and a plethora of new employment opportunities. 

It is not surprising that those who have made active ignorance and relentless obstructionism an art form, should fail to understand or acknowledge that in a dynamic industry such as solar, there will be technologies that succeed and others that don’t: fast moving businesses, nurtured by steady innovation, result in better products at a lower price---and that brings about economic growth.   Capitalism, though highly effective, often is quite sloppy. 

For those who appreciate the dynamics of the photovoltaic industry, it was not unreasonable to conclude that thin-film PV could be a winning technology when poly-silicon prices were eight times higher than they are today.  The fact that prices of solar equipment have dropped as precipitously -- some analysts and industry insiders are predicting grid parity for solar by 2015 -- should be a cause for excitement, optimism and a sense of accomplishment.    With poly-silicon already selling at a fraction of its price when investment in thin-film was peaking and the relentlessness with which “traditional” solar manufacturers have improved efficiency and driven down prices, in hindsight it is unsurprising that thin-film technology would have ever taken hold.

These modern-day “know nothings” and stone throwers are happy to draw not one, but two erroneous lessons from Solyndra’s travails; the other being that the Chinese are playing a game of unfair international trade with respect to the photovoltaic industry. 

To reach that cozy place, undisturbed by facts, the Cassandra’s must ignore two important facts.  First, that the very folks who are most vociferous in their denunciation of the Obama administration’s support of Solyndra, also have backed subsidies, loans, tax abatements and other such incentives for renewable energy firms located in their Congressional districts.

Second, Chinese solar manufacturers also have had their share of losers in this rapidly evolving sector—just ask Suntech about it’s white elephant thin-film plant in Shanghai, or other mono- or multi-crystalline solar manufacturing firms who are in a “fight to the death” among themselves.   A nuanced look at the current state of the Chinese solar industry belies the monochromatic depiction of a Chinese solar industry taking advantage of its U.S. counterparts through a familiar playbook of nefarious actions.  In fact there is a great deal of stress throughout the Chinese solar industry now, brought about by the familiar cutthroat price competition that typically befalls a high-growth industry suffering from runaway capacity development. Recent Chinese renewable energy articles lament the “cabbage pricing” of Chinese solar industry firms in their cutthroat competition for a share of foreign markets. 

The naysayers can’t have it both ways:  the Chinese government at both the local and national level indeed has provided rich subsidies to its photovoltaic industry not unlike the incentives granted by the Bush and Obama administrations and countless state and local governments to our industry.  It is also true that these investments by the Chinese include a host of unsuccessful bets.   As long as certain segments of our society, who view such time-honored investments as heresy, exercises enough clout to obstruct or discourage those investments, we will continue to lose out to the Chinese whose culture of risk-taking is so reminiscent of how we once operated.

We should pause to consider how we got to a place where investment in new industries that often lead to bountiful employment growth, is more highly regarded in China than here in the U.S.   And that inquiry should then lead us to the much more significant question of whether the U.S. is willing to compete with nations around the world for a fair share of the GDP growth and employment opportunities afforded by emerging industries, such as the solar industry?

It is sad to note that from an investment and public policy standpoint, the Chinese are surging ahead of the U.S. and aggressively building the next set of great industries.  The Chinese do this for all the reasons that we should: ensuring their own energy security and addressing serious environmental issues while supporting yet another source of GDP and employment growth.  We forfeit the right to complain about Chinese business practices when we have put so little effort into securing our own future.          

Lou Schwartz, a lawyer and China specialist who focuses his work on the energy and metals sectors in the People's Republic of China, is a frequent contributor to Renewable Energy World.   Through China Strategies, LLC, Lou provides clients research and analysis, due diligence, merger and acquisition, private equity investment and other support for trade and investment in China's burgeoning energy and metals industries. He can be reached at lou@chinastrategiesllc.com. 

13 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
September 27, 2011
Agreed - construction jobs are real jobs and they cannot be off-shored (for the most part). US gov. should support solar industry w/ project finance (not just construction finance) but don't confuse the benefits of such an effort w/ the fact most of the top tier solar developers in US are foreign companies who will (and are) reap(ing) the benefits of tax payer financing.

Can we exclude china from our markets?...not according to WTO. None of the comments regarding paying more for local content make sense because our market is price driven...in other words ONLY the lowest price obtains PPA. This is good for consumers. Simply put...US goods have a higher cost - and always will.

There is a lot of anger over the state of our economy and China gets the blamed for it by most Americans who complain about China while they walk down the isles shopping at WalMart! Its a fact, Chinese work for far less than we do ($2-$5 day); eat less, consume less and have a far lower standard of living. GO TO CHINA and see for yourself then you will understand. That is why they can sell "everything" for less than we can. You can thank WalMart for building China's manfuacturing base. However, we are beneficiaries of that low cost.

US gov should support solar industry - by investing FIRST in higher education. It should be free for US citizens. SECOND we should invest heavily in energy research w/ US companies (dollar for dollar) in a manner that allows tax payers to own their fair share of economic benefits from the techology successes...so we can return to being educated innovators while the Chinese work in the factories!
ANONYMOUS
September 23, 2011
No Bruce--actually you missed the REAL point.
From here out, MOST solar PV modules will be produced in China--throwing dollars into a fire is what you seem to suggest doing in subsidizing solar manufacturing in the U.S.
PROJECT LEVEL finance is where $ support should go--NOT at the manufacturing level--we cannot beat them on price so why swim upstream?? Fund U.S. based solar construction and not idiotic attempts to beat China at its own game (manufacturing).
Henry Hales
Henry Hales
September 23, 2011
Lou, you say, "the U.S. government should play no role in economic development and national security." The U.S. should play no role in national security?! Really? Wow! Try reading the U.S. Constitution. It is still the basis for all our laws.
lawrence elliott
lawrence elliott
September 23, 2011
Another thing missing in these comments is the 8000 lb elephant most people ignore. China is eating our lunch in just about every area of manufacturing and our suicidal trade laws are adding fuel to their fire every day.

Case in point. I just visited an inverter manufacturers factory here in the states for a client. Clearly they have a great product with great track record and excellent support. Started by a true entrepreneur more interested in business success than being paid like a king. No multilevel of over paid vice presidents and very low overhead. They source as much domestically as humanly possible. Their labor force is paid well but not at any excessive level so their product costs are as low as they can go.They can compete on any level playing field.

My client is not a US citizen. Receives all of his profits from the rebates and treasury grants.(our tax dollars) Cares only about lowest cost. He is going with a Chinese 'no name' offering an 8 cent/watt lower cost than the domestic competition.These inverters will be coupled to Chinese PV modules supported by Chinese racking. A $160,000 inverter savings on a 1 meg project. Client is typical.Maximize profit with no concern for anything else. So when the US manufacturers employees are unemployed because their company could not 'compete' what do we do with them and their starving families? Without new trade laws let's just shut off the lights and call it quits. One thing is certain. Next presidential election the lemmings and fools on the right and the left will vote for another sad list of losers,sociopaths,narcissists and corporate whores and then wonder why their job just got outsourced and their son's and daughters are coming back from another illegally invaded country in a body bag. Doing the same wrong thing over and over and expecting different results being the result of insanity certainly applies in this case. Free trade my ass.
Bruce Michael
Bruce Michael
September 23, 2011
Wow, several of you sure are blasting Mr. Schwartz - and missing the point of his article. Which is that the U.S. should continue investing in the future of clean energy sources, and that it is hypocritical of those in Congress who are using this to blast the Obama administration, when many have fought for subsidies in their own districts or states. The article is very rational and factual.
The future of our energy needs to be in clean energy sources, not dirty 19th century ones, or even the supposedly new fracking ventures, which has many health and environmental problems.
ANONYMOUS
September 22, 2011
The Solyndra debacle was so predictable that I started a Solyndra Death Watch the day they were awarded the DOE loan guarantee. Here is a simple metric: When the CEO of a start-up company receives more than about $150k per year of compensation the company is not going to make it. If memory serves, Gronet was paid more than $400k per year. Executive management gets their rewards when the IPO or strategic buy-out exit strategy is executed. Big salaries to executives has no place in the world of REAL entrepenures. Equity is the motivating currency of the founding fathers.
Donald Wagner
Donald Wagner
September 22, 2011
Solyndra was one of two worst ideas in solar I have seen. That said, Right now China is investing 20 TIMES the amount that the US is in Solar. Together China and Taiwan account for 49% of solar electric production. Solar is currently less than the grid in Hawaii, New Mexico, Arizona, Southern California and most of Texas. Before 2016 Solar is expected to be less than the grid in the majority of the United States. Solar costs dropped 17% in 2010 ( http://cleantechnica.com/2011/09/16/record-cost-reductions-in-us-solar-power-spurs-growth-in-green-jobs-too/ ). How much do you expect oil to go down per year? It seems ridiculous that we continue to subsidize oil and burn-tech 20 times more than renewable energy!! Basically at the end of 2014 there will be little reason for solar subsidies and the big players will be established. Currently China has four of the top five largest solar producers. The US is currently fifth in solar production behind China, Japan, Taiwan and Germany (http://www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C47). If the US doesn't get their act together then in 7 years we will not only be complaining that China's labor is cheaper, but that their energy costs are a lot less also.
Fred Widicus
Fred Widicus
September 22, 2011
Judging by this article Lou appears to have been wrong about Solyndra for a long time. Not a good thing for a due diligence provider so I can understand the defensive tone of this article.
Better luck next time Lou.
ANONYMOUS
September 22, 2011
Solyndra's business plan was simply a few marketing words written on a cocktail napkin: "game changer"--except it was simply all a hoax in order to grab investment dollars from the VC "genius" crowd...when that well dried a bit, gov't money was sought. Since early 2009 NOBODY is the solar industry worth a damn thought Solydra had a chance to survive through this year--NOBODY except the morons that the DOE were listening to.
PROJECT level finance is where government support will make a real difference--construction jobs are real--just like projects. Perhaps low interest construction loans for solar projects???? Yes-it is that easy to avoid throwing money away on Bull Sheet companies like Solyndra.
The author of this article should be embarrassed, but that would be too much to expect from such a partisan viewpoint.
ANONYMOUS
September 22, 2011
"Solyndra was on the cutting edge, " and this time they bled.
David Carl
David Carl
September 22, 2011
Everyone who says the future is solar energy also says the price will decline as the industry matures. Somehow in the case of Solyndra we are supposed to be unable to anticipate a price decline in silicon based photovoltaics? When have the Chineses not practiced unfair trade? This is supposed to be another unforeseeable action?
Tom Lakosh
Tom Lakosh
September 22, 2011
Get some ethics Lou. Every interested nerd knew their tech was way to inefficient/costly and there was some ulterior motive to the loan guarantee. The vast majority of species are about to check out so please stop fluffing the porn stars.
ANONYMOUS
September 21, 2011
Solyndra was on the cutting edge, but before the OBama Administration gave them $500 million taxpayer dollars, there should have been some collateral exchanged such as 100% of the Intellectual, Patented and Copyrighted materials Solyndra has developed up until this point. That way IF there was an issue, there was materials left that could have been used to generate a new business or sold off to highest bidders to recoup the losses.

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Louis Schwartz

Louis Schwartz

Lou Schwartz, a lawyer and China specialist who focuses his work on the energy and metals sectors in the People's Republic of China, is a frequent contributor to Renewable Energy World. Through China Strategies LLC, Lou, who is fluent in...
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