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Solyndra's Exit: China Not To Blame

Barry Cinnamon, CEO, Westinghouse Solar
August 31, 2011  |  15 Comments

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The epitaph for Solyndra is significant because of what was not a factor in their demise. It was certainly not for a lack of trying. But more importantly, it was not because of Chinese competition or a lack of U.S. government support.

Chinese solar panels are 10-20 percent less expensive than U.S.-made panels; but by some estimates, Solyndra's panels were 100 percent more. It's a mistake to blame Solyndra's problems on our lack of manufacturing commitment or relatively higher labor costs compared to China. Solar panels are commodities being sold on the worldwide market on a $/watt basis much as aluminum is sold on a $/kg basis. It is crystal clear that cheap and easy to install solar panels are exactly what the U.S. needs to reduce our energy costs and create installation jobs.

For five years or more, the U.S. government was providing support for solar manufacturing in the U.S.  The DOE Loan Guarantee program provided critical funding for Solyndra's manufacturing growth, supported by over $1 billion in private capital. Unfortunately, both these private investors and the DOE made a couple of bets on Solyndra that didn't pan out.

The first bad bet was that refined silicon, the feedstock for the solar panel industry, would stay expensive. Solyndra invented a solar panel that didn't use expensive silicon. Unfortunately for Solyndra, and fortunately for all the silicon solar panel manufacturers and customers, silicon has gotten very cheap over the past few years. So, the problem that Solyndra solved: expensive silicon disappeared.

The second bad bet was that Solyndra's flat roof installation technology would make up for their relatively expensive panels. Solyndra did indeed see big savings on flat roof installations, but the rest of the industry did not stand still. Other commercial flat roof products are on the market (full disclosure, Westinghouse Solar has an inexpensive and easy to install flat roof solar panel product) with similar benefits at much lower costs to Solyndra.

Management and investors finally pulled the plug when two things became brutally apparent. First, that silicon wasn't going to get expensive again. And second, Solyndra's installation advantage couldn't overcome similar products that were on the market at much lower prices. 

It was a great attempt at solving a big problem: reducing solar installation costs. I hope the U.S. Government is made whole on their DOE loan guarantee (which, notably was initiated during the Bush administration). I hope we don't bash overseas manufacturers for making commodity solar panels cheaper than we can in the U.S.; after all, we all want inexpensive solar panels. I hope that Solyndra technology and employees continue to thrive in the emerging clean technology industry which they helped to pioneer.

15 Comments

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Adrian Akau
Adrian Akau
September 6, 2011
Dear larryofgalaxy.

Very strong and important words for a very sick nation. Thank you!!!!
lawrence elliott
lawrence elliott
September 6, 2011
If our American Empire of Aggression could finally be defeated by the only people who can defeat it,that being the American people, we could finally put our wealth and innovation to use for something other than terrorizing other countries into obedience.The 500 million to Solyndra equals just two weeks of interest paid on the billions borrowed from China to feed the Military Monster. And yet this monster is still paid homage to by fools who kneel before it and marvel at its size and strength. Until the general populace in America finally sees the Military Industrial Complex/Oil Oligarchy for the evil it is we will continue our steep decline into a backward and sad country of little folks hiding in fear of 'them', as the few who profit from this irrational fear live behind ever higher walls in opulence and continue to squander ever more fossil fuels to keep the dying Empire alive,to attack just one more sovereign country they have convinced the sheep is a threat to them.
ANONYMOUS
September 3, 2011
If the federal government had dispensed the $535 million and divided it among the employees each and every one of them could have deposited almost $500,000. in their Credit Union (not in BofA or Chase). Just think what this would have done to the community instead of frittering the money away on Solar Cells.

If China can produce Solar Cells and compete into the market so be it. We cannot keep pushing money down the Rat Hole hoping for a success when the world knows these Cells are impracticable
ANONYMOUS
September 2, 2011
It is always sad to see a company fall. Some of the reasons that I did not purchase from them was when we tried to get a quantity quote from them the "Company" insisted on doing the design of the layout or they would not warranty the installation. I was only interested in the warranty of the product and had no interest in their design with was only 1/2 of the needed. When they refused to consider this is when we found other sources, and will not go back to them in the future unless they have a major change in company policy's.
I also feel the loan deal was for a feather for Obama's hat that he needed disparately.
Adrian Akau
Adrian Akau
September 2, 2011
The DOE Loan Guarantee program providing critical funding for Solyndra's manufacturing growth, supported by over $1 billion in private capital may have been a factor in the demise of Solyndra. The company may have assumed that strong support by government and private industry would permit it to weather any difficulties. Perhaps this feeling of support made Solyndra insensitive in its planning so that it could not make corrective adjustments to its business plan. Being in business means the ability to forssee market growth possibilities and to avoid or correct for risk factors.
ANONYMOUS
September 1, 2011
Excellent article Barry and (mostly) constructive informed comments. One question from a newbie and possible purchaser :
Are there PV modules that go down easy and can be just moved (instead of being remounted) for my 4 unit building ? I know Solyndra was not retail, but the gravity-is-enough aspect of their installation is attractive.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
September 1, 2011
Solyndra's approach does at least address some of the issues with commercial rooftops in northern latitudes:
- snow shedding: the ability to do this effectively results in a higher winter-time capacity factor and reduces point loading on the roof (most commercial flat roofs have limited point-load capacity)
- wind resistance: form factor and horizontal mounting minimize the extra wind loading; comparitively high angle mounting of conventional panels at higher latitudes contributes a large and sometimes unsustainable extra load.
- drifting: Solyndra modules generate very little drifting which can cause uneven roof loading and ponding during thaws - with convential modules this either by itself or in conjunction with wind load can exceed bearing capacity.
These are all important factors that can make conventional installations fail at the engineering study level.

Be that as it may, 'knowing the price of a thing focuses the mind greatly'. As we know, products have an experience curve where price falls in relation to cummulative sales. c-Si solar modules present a good example. So far, Solyndra's experience curve has been quite good - just not good enough to achieve parity with c-Si in the time frame that investors would like. Unfortunately, its volumes were curtailed by a somewhat tentative market and an agressive roll-out by others who could somehow find the money to buy market share. Don't feel too bad for the fed: the key to a healthy domestic industry is a healthy domestic market; instead, they opted for an uncertain market backstopped by volatile policies. It's sad when an American company has to build business cases around foreign countries' energy policies. But don't learn from others' mistakes: Japan once seized control of the solar industry but then collapsed their domestic market and very soon lost their lead.

There's still a question whether Solyndra has drowned or is just taking time to towel off.
Steven Reeves
Steven Reeves
September 1, 2011
No one could possibly be considered and educated investor that would believe silicon would stay expensive - come on. Even a very basic online search would have told anyone (are you listening DoE and investors) that multiple companies were investing in silicon production expansion and manufacturing improvements - for every year going back many years and going forward many years. This is and was a scratch my back deal and a trend in NREL and DoE to have to have something exotic and big to work on (think multi-junction cells, CPV, how can I fund my lab, etc.).

Same goes for innovative installation systems. Everyone who is seriously thinking about the industry now and many years back have been designing systems. The problem is getting panel manufacturers on board to implement better built-in systems (I'll fully disclose too, that I am involved with designing and manufacturing these systems).

GeraldR - I still desire a Delorean and I want it to be an EV! I think the desire for Solyndra products was never really there from installers and buyers, many of us could see this coming (and Evergreen Solar).
Donald Wagner
Donald Wagner
September 1, 2011
I am only surprised that it took this long. I knew this would happen years ago (http://gigaom.com/cleantech/solyndras-estimated-market-cap-up-to-2b-report/). This is one of the two worst ideas in solar (and I have seen a lot). The idea of minimizing the use of you solar material versus maximizing it (like concentrated solar) doesn't make a lot of sense. The cost will be driven down by using the materials more effectively like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV). I especially like the Rainbow Concentrator by Sol Solution (www.Sol-Solution.net).
lawrence elliott
lawrence elliott
September 1, 2011
I remember the day I toured Solyndra's factory and went on the roof to see how it was installed. I was impressed with the automation techniques used in the manufacuring. The one thing that did disturb me was the thought that they were building a really nice and high tech device but it seemed to require a huge investment in machinery compared to crystalline modules and I felt there had to be a better way to encapsulate CIGS. Well I now have several modules from a new CIGS company with big plans for expansion and I find them to appear so simple with better aperture efficiency than the Solyndra that seem almost RubeGoldbergian by comparison. There may be some future for the Solyndra technology yet but the jury is really out. I'm working on a truly unique application of the new CIGS flexible modules that could get the energy produced down to sub 60 cents/watt. Only time will tell though.
John Reche
John Reche
September 1, 2011
We can dispense with your dubious adverts. Thanks
Steve Yang, P.E.
Steve Yang, P.E.
September 1, 2011
It is time to focus away from yet another novel efficiency technology manufacturing startup. Sustained efficient Operation & Maintenance of these expensive power plants is
what counts over the long run. Wattminder is building web resources to assure optimal solar power plant operation anywhere in the world. We can make better use of 0.01% of that $1.5B, and with much better odds of return on investment!
Anthony Rawson
Anthony Rawson
September 1, 2011
Even if the feds have to completely eat the cost of these loan guarantees, I suspect the total drain on our treasury will be less than the cost of a single day our military continues to stay in Iraq or Afghanistan.

I'm pretty sure though that these limited failures will be added to the koch-minion talking points as to why our government shouldn't be supporting any green initiatives at all.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
August 31, 2011
How could I forget some classic Norwegian Blues including the Edsel & the Delorean, Windows Vista & Windows ME, the Arch Deluxe, Crystal Pepsi & 'new' Coke, pcJR, Palm Foleo, Apple Newton, WOW!, the electric car, the Hummer, ... the list goes on. The interesting thing is many of these carefully thought out by serious people and still the wheels fell off. The point is that even some pretty good ideas, even viable ones, can die for substantially extraneous reasons. Often the basic concepts have come to life again in newer and more successful products. The EV, a current big news story, started out as a dominant life form, became a dinosaur, came to life a second time briefly, died, then came to life again. Or, we might segue to the Segway.

Returning to Solyndra, it seems that their misfortune is merely to have been caught in a fast moving current and they may have to get a little wet to recover. In many respects, their USP is solid. And they have a reasonably good business case. Their basic values may still pull them through. The use of the word 'exit' is probably a little extreme. After all, we still remember Henry Ford, in spite of more than one 'exit' and another close call.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
August 31, 2011
Exactly right. Quite a few companies have based product concepts on the premise of the high cost of silicon. But several things have acted in concert to reduce the cost per Watt of silicon. This includes a substantial reduction in wafer thickness and kerf loss, reduced slab losses and increased efficiency on top of rapidly expanding solar grade silicon volumes with related price declines. Recent innovations in ingot casting with high to near perfect crystalinity will push this even further as will the roll-out of many other c-Si design changes. None of these factors have anything whatsoever to do with labor costs but have had and will continue to have the most impact on the cost of c-Si modules in cost per Watt terms.
The good news that might get lost in the bad news is that solar power continues rapidly down a price reduction curve and is becoming more and more affordable. The bottom line: "we all want inexpensive solar panels". Price and demand, production volumes and economy of scale are synergistically inter-related.
Whether or not he US fed's bet was wise is hard to say although hind-sight is rarely a fair judge. The bad news is that technology is often a gamble: quite simply, we don't know what we don't know. Unfortunately, the general public want's to see it as a 'sure thing'. Recently, there has been a popular press story going around about Steve Jobs' several muffed product ideas; for example, was it a bad idea to blow a lot of cash on Lisa ... or did the lessons learned help make Apple a better company? Many expensively developed technologies go thunk and yet the industry as a whole moves on: Wankel rotary engine, thalidomide, 8 track tape, Beta, the zonkey, ... anyone??

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Barry Cinnamon

Barry Cinnamon

Westinghouse Solar founder Barry Cinnamon is a widely recognized expert on solar power, and a long-time advocate of its use. He holds a BS Degree in Mechanical Engineering from MIT and an MBA degree in Marketing from Wharton. His work on...
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