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China's Wind Power Sector Struggles with Rare Earth Price Hikes

By Liu Yuanyuan, Contributor
August 17, 2011   |   8 Comments

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8 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 8
August 18, 2011
Some new Techs do not require any Rare Earth metals. One CSP system is low enough in cost that the current tax benefits more than cover the amounts required to own the system - this not only means essentially free equipment, but can actually put money in your pocket with the purchase. More info here: powertaxcredit.com

No Cost Solar Power
Comment
2 of 8
August 18, 2011
So, Chinese products are becoming too expensive for China?
Comment
3 of 8
August 20, 2011
This is just a delay. The great thing about economics is the principle of supply and demand. This increase in demand has increased prices for rare earth materials which in turn will accelerate the development of new mines and processing. When these mines come on stream (accelerated to try and capture the high price)the price will drop dramatically. This is expected to accelerate the adoption of direct drive technology for wind turbines which will as a result lower wind farm life cycle costing (as the elimination of the gearbox is a huge O&M benefit). So I guess in every cloud there is a silver lining.
Comment
4 of 8
rif
August 21, 2011
@JohnGiannasca
The problem with your argument is that this is not burger restaurant market, where a customer with burger A can just go a bit further away and buy at burger B or he can use the substitute - just cook at home.

Currently China is sitting on a monopoly market and can pretty much dictate prices. Supply and demand only self regulate when there is not a monopoly situation.

In the case that the burger A location should be too good a market there will likely come a burger C some month later. The same thing cannot happen in mining industry. It is too specialized and too long supply chain. To get out of the current situation will take 5 to 10 years to start up mining and refinery business elsewhere.

Meanwhile China will be laughing while going to the bank. I even think they deserve it. The real problem is the short sighted economic thinking that happened on the demand side, where the buyer did not assure second source and only look for the cheapest supplier, China. Always be wary of companies with cost-cutting but big bonuses for managers, they do not think long term.
Comment
5 of 8
August 21, 2011
rif...you are right to a point. I guess I was a little brief in elaborating the time lines. I was contemplating years before the new plants would come on line. China currently produces 97% of the worlds supply of rare earth minerals but has only 37% of the reserves. The price rise has changed the economics so plants in Australia, America (North and South), Africa and other places are expected to come on line. All these places produced the minerals but when China changed the price structure by increasing its exports 20 years ago, these plants were no longer economic. By constricting supply China is now doing the opposite and making these plants, and others, viable. The difference now is that there is a faster growing need for these minerals as the understanding that direct drive for wind turbines is a game changer. That will make these plants viable into the future regardless of China's desire to change the flow again.
It seems that the Chinese have made both good and bad moves in this game.
Comment
6 of 8
August 21, 2011
High prices will drive more competition, but while China price gouges to cash in on a captive market bubble of their own creation, those that do invest in new mining and processing will find the bubble burst when greater supply brings prices down again, and profit margins are reduced. Those that invest will be prepared to pull out in a few years, leaving a depressed business model behind for mining operations. Financial looting of this nature damages the economy in the long run.
Comment
7 of 8
August 22, 2011
You are right of course but there is a possibility the a drop in price will open up a larger market and create a demand that can sustain realistic pricing should China start to tinker with the price again.
Comment
8 of 8
October 26, 2011
15 years ago when we talked about wind turbine drive train, it was DFIG and gearbox. We never imagined that permanent magnet direct drive or full power frequency converter was possible. Today we see issues from gearbox and frequency converter and price surge in permanent magnet, isn't it a driving force for us to consider a new technology platform which do not need gearbox, frequency converter and permanent magnet?
People are skeptic about hydraulic transmission because of its efficiency. But now the latest generation of variable hydraulic transmission --- digital valve technology allows the drive train efficiency not too far way from conventional drive trains. Hydraulic transmission is an alternative gearless solution for future.
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