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A Silver Lining in Declining Solar Prices

Arno Harris, CEO, Recurrent Energy
August 31, 2011  |  18 Comments

Quarterly earnings numbers are out for many publicly-traded solar manufacturing companies, and you'd be forgiven for thinking the solar industry is in trouble. Why? Because the global price of solar panels is falling and putting pressure on profit margins — and that spells bad news for manufacturers' earnings.

This is a reminder that what is good for a market isn't necessarily good for all market participants. Declining prices mean only those with the lowest manufacturing costs (and business models that work on much thinner margins) will earn the profits necessary to survive. Those that can't will fall by the wayside.

The recent news about Solyndra is a case in point. Solyndra had a compelling technology when solar modules cost $3.25/Watt. But the technology didn’t prove out in a world where costs are rapidly approaching $1/Watt. This is the Darwinian process by which markets reward innovation and starve stagnation. And it is this process that will ultimately deliver cost-effective solutions to climate change.

A 70 percent decline in solar panel prices over the last 24 months has many in the industry forecasting a brutal shakeout ahead. I'd argue that this picture misses an important point. It's myopic to focus solely on earnings of one segment of the industry. There's a silver lining for the world in declining solar prices: cheaper solar power.

The less solar power costs, the more favorably it compares to conventional power, and the more attractive it becomes to utilities and energy users around the globe. Utility-scale solar power can now be delivered in California at prices well below $100/MWh ($0.10/kWh) less than most other peak generators, even those running on low-cost natural gas. Lower solar module costs also stimulate demand from consumer markets where the cost of solar compares very favorably to retail electric rates.

Bottom line: declining prices mean ever growing demand for solar power. That means an ever bigger role for solar in our generating mix and an increasing impact addressing climate change.

Many may see today's handwringing about solar stocks as an indication we need to go back to past policies of rich direct subsidies for solar. The reality is "the way things used to be" isn't a viable option. Government appetite for direct solar subsidies is waning and the industry must make the transition to electricity market demand.

That's not necessarily a bad thing. Just as there's a silver lining to declining module prices, there's also an important upside to the broader changes happening in our industry: the companies that emerge successfully from our shifting subsidy landscape will be the very companies that help usher us into an era of grid parity, where solar competes on equal footing with gas, coal, and other traditional power sources.

But that's only if we play our cards right, both as an industry and as a nation. As I've written before, changes to key policies — specifically, those that impact how projects are financed — are critical to developing a strong and competitive solar PV market. Ultimately, the leaders that overcome today's crisis will be those that can tap the full potential of competitive demand, capturing massive scale as solar becomes a part of the mainstream energy supply.

This post originally ran on National Geographic's The Great Energy Challenge Blog curated by Planet Forward, and was republished with permission. 

18 Comments

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Gary McCallum
Gary McCallum
June 25, 2012
Try auto battery manufactures, tool battery producers cell phone and computer battery producers. Keep on knocking on doors. If your idea works someone will grab it to the loss of all the nonbelievers.
Jeff Davis
Jeff Davis
June 25, 2012
We are asking for advice on how to market a patent? we have met with nothing but failure so far. Our problem with marketing our battery management patent that gets 2x more energy out of ordinary dry cells (and most other batteries), is that no one believes it until they come and see the demo's, then they go back to their co's and eventually let themselves be talked out of it, OR sharks want to take it for nothing,
Jeff Davis
Jeff Davis
June 24, 2012
If you want to see a very good and very cheap to install patent that gets the residual energy out of ordinary dry cells (and any other battery as well) go check out doublebatterylife come see. Its really works, in the face of all ordinary logic, why because when we measured the joules of energy in AA cells it came out that there were about twice as many joules as anyone can normally use, in other words, the battery co's have to force in 150% of energy to get 100% out, then combined with auto-regeneration which gives you another 50% ; the circuit works to manipulate the voltage higher to make the resicual energy usabel. Pro's : gets 2x more energy out, CONS: it tears up batteries by doing so which is ok for disposable that are used once and thrown away such as alkaline small cell, but for rechargeable its not so good even though it gets the 2x energy out, the years of life cycle are diminished prorated on how much you use it (but for that rechargeable situatioin its a nice niche to provide emergency power to win battle, races, competitions, medical life saving, extreme, usses; in which the user would not use the circuit except when doing so is more important than life cycle years of use (how much is saveing al ife worth with a defibrilator or winning a contest compared to price os rechargeable battery). 1. It works fantastic with small cell disposables 2. For emergencies with rechargeables.
Jeff Davis
Jeff Davis
June 23, 2012
We are STILL looking for $1.oo USD per watt solar a the author alludes. Any leads? check out doublebatterylife.com... it actually really really in truth guaranteed gets double energy out of any battery, (works best with disposable alkalines as rechargeables degrade and lose years of use even though it does indeed get double energy out initially. ).
Joe Barnes
Joe Barnes
June 22, 2012
Gary, Thank you for that comment. Unfortunately even though we have several people interested in our wind farm, they will not commit to any interest in it until we have obtained a grant of patent.I can only wish you the best of luck in telling the world about it prior to you being granted a full patent, but please watch the sharks of this world, they love eager people like you and I. Good luck anyway even though our device may make your solar power redundant. Joe.
Gary McCallum
Gary McCallum
June 21, 2012
JHB I'm at a loss. If your provisional patent application is in the system why are you not trying to commercialize on it. You already have priority on the concept so what is stopping the sale of the idea or manufacturing of the product? I myself have a patent application in for a new type of solar panel and as soon as I have received acknowledgement that it is in the system I'm letting the world know about it to bring this idea to market.
Joe Barnes
Joe Barnes
June 21, 2012
Garry Mccullum suggested that most world patents are not viable with regards to cost etc. All it needs is for one, just one brilliant idea to be granted a patent on and it will, or SHOULD be able to change the path we are going down for renewables.Throwing millions of £'s/ dollars at rotary wind turbines is complete folly. We have had a provisional patent in the UK patent office for approx three years now and it will not be granted until the 2nd of November 2012. It is a disgrace that we have to wait so long for good ideas to come to the market place.Patent offices have been told to speed up patents that represent renewable energy but for some reason they love to delay their existence. May I ask if the USA adopts this policy ????
Jeff Davis
Jeff Davis
June 20, 2012
Yes, USA has sold out to big $$$ super rich idiots who in reality seek to control the world, the whole world. IMHO any inventor who gets a patent should instantly be awarded $1M prize,, why? because its different enough to get a patent, and innovation paves the way for technology that saves the lives and makes live happier for not just 20 years but its a GIFT that keeps on giving for ETERNITY !! FOREVER ! ! Yet most inventors get nothing nothing nothing !! Just shows what a payola system is ~ !
Jeff Davis
Jeff Davis
June 20, 2012
WHERE IS $1.00/watt solar panels?? We only see 45watts for $150 (~ $3.00/watt). Is it true that congress is blocking solar panels from china because they are low cost and high efficiency? What happened to Ovshinskies Solar Shingle that actually works in the rain or shine, and gets more per 12 hour day than the heavy glass encased silicon types (UNI-SOL/ECD was bought by "someone who smells oily" and instantly run into bankruptcy, they are not producing nothing at all and like the 2 Texacp owned NIMH battery factories don't seem to have a sales dept??? see PeaceNikInternational for more info, or even DoubleBatteryLife for a patent that has not been bought that enables ordinary batteries to go twice as far *(we've seen it many times and its guaranteed to work). Best Regards !
Gary McCallum
Gary McCallum
September 4, 2011
JHB Sorry but buying up all the worlds patents wont help a bit.
IT'S A NO BRAINER
Most of the patents not being exploited are not commercially viable. The cost of implementing verses the value of the energy obtained makes them a no go.
as jblood mentioned a FIT system would do wonders to get the industry going and spur innovation. A carbon tax would be a further catalyst.
I'm working on the first of four provisional patents for solar technology and during my patent searches I found that, though the concepts would work, (some of them well) they are mostly beyond a financially benificial threshold.
A global shift in values would do as much as any government implemented policies. Does everybody really need a shiney two ton SUV (stupid useless vehicle) to go out and buy two liters of milk at a further cost of two liters of gas?
A world where we cared for each other and valued this precious little planet would reduce a lot of greed which itself is problematic. Sadley all that glitters is not gold
Jamie Schlinkmann
Jamie Schlinkmann
September 4, 2011
Supply and demand...there must be balance. Solyndra ultimately fell victim to PV oversupply, which in turn will lead to lower supply and higher prices, impacting demand. Companies need to make a profit and solar PV has enough players that if a low cost leader existed they would have emerged already. The whole industry is in trouble as long as pollution is free and those in control of the fossils make orders-of-magnitude more profits than those harvesting renewables.
Sam Beal
Sam Beal
September 2, 2011
Buying patents isn't the government's business. The PN junction hasn't changed much in 30 years, but if First Solar had patents on anti-reflection coatings or other yield enhancements they could request injunctions on imports.

To the extent that isn't happening, says there isn't a lot of defense in IP here.
Joe Barnes
Joe Barnes
September 2, 2011
jblood,
If your government had the brains and the courage to buy up the worlds patents for renewables they would be world leaders and suppliers of these technologies. Like the UK they have little interest in solving global warming and doing a quick change to all renewable energies.They simply talk the talk and do very little.Going down the same old tired,worn out path of throwing money at useless technologies such as wind turbines that stand still for almost 300 days a year are not the answer.
Your country needs a panel of experts that look in the worlds patent applications and cream off the excellent replacements that actually have some backbone to them.
Jeff Blood
Jeff Blood
September 2, 2011
I agree with Sam - policy is the biggest barrier to adoption of solar in America. We need a strong Federal policy for a Feed-in-Tariff with content rules to spur the industry and provide the proper protection for US industry. Given the overseas government intervention in currencies and flat out financial support to companies, we can no longer declare our market open to all. Clean, renewable energy is an absolute must for the future of our nation and we must work hard to have a leading position in the technology and manufacturing know-how for this industry.
Sam Beal
Sam Beal
September 2, 2011
I'll side-step the debate on where cells are made, to note that BoS and Installation are dominated by US and European companies, the latter being almost impossible to outsource. Policy is the biggest barrier to broad adoption of solar energy in America.
pierre vincent
pierre vincent
September 1, 2011
Hi JHB. Are we really on the verge? Or are you payed by exxon to set a technology trap, a classic delay tactic?
Joe Barnes
Joe Barnes
September 1, 2011
I have not been on this site long and have to tell you that I have not heard any mention of Solar Paint. It is a fairly recent UK invention and if it takes off it will put thousands of solar panel manufacturers and installers out of business.
You simply paint any surface with it and that is it. Factory and house roofs. Garden sheds, fence panels, walls. even tents and caravans can all become transformed into mini power stations at a stroke. Investors in solar need to wait and energy companies need to take heed of this knowledge prior to taking out bank loans.Perhaps you can tell me more. Joe.
Jay Lindberg
Jay Lindberg
September 1, 2011
Spoken like a true representative of a foreign panel manufacturer. Recurrent Energy is a subsidiary of Sharp. His perspective is just a little biased. If the subsidies that are making his company rich were directed exclusively at domestic manufacturing, Recurrent Energy would not even be a player in American markets.
Fully developed, this industry will be in the 1.5 to 2 trillion dollar range in America. We cannot allow that development cannot be subsidized with 500 billion dollars of imports and 750 billion dollars in federal subsidies.

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Arno Harris

Arno Harris

I'm CEO of Recurrent Energy, a leading developer of solar projects for utilities and large energy customers. Recurrent Energy develops, builds, finances, and operates solar power projects--marketing clean electricity at competitive rates...
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