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100 Percent Renewables: The Resources are There, Says UN Report

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29 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 29
May 16, 2011
Good, This is good. Thank you for your reporting.
Comment
2 of 29
May 16, 2011
Some body pinch me, I think I'm dreaming? Can this be true?
Comment
3 of 29
May 17, 2011
Certainly is true and this report is not alone, there are another 10+ reports out, you can download them from the Report Centre in the link below. People are beginning to wake up to the fact that even in energy technology innovation can be disruptive.

http://www2.greenpowerconferences.co.uk/RE1106UK
Comment
4 of 29
May 17, 2011
Is it not an unrealistic forecast that too by IPCC? Renewables can only supplement conventional energy but cannot replace the latter.

In 2008 world energy supply by power source was oil 33.5%, coal 26.8%, gas 20.8% (fossil 81%), renewable (hydro, solar, wind, geothermal power and biofuels) 12.9%, nuclear 5.8% and other 4%. Oil was the most popular energy fuel. Oil and coal combined represented over 60% of the world energy supply in 2008(Source: IEA).

Renewable Energy in developing countries is driven mostly by political will and Government's policies. The development of Renewables in Developed countries is quite different when compared to developing countries where the priorities are different.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
Wind Energy Expert
E-mail: anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com
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Comment
5 of 29
Anonymous
May 17, 2011
I am afraid Dr. Nellore and other experts like him are the reason renewable energy is facing such an uphill battle. The sun alone throws out more energy in one day than what the entire world (both developing and developed)consume/likely-to-need in a whole year. I hope he attends the conference and gets informed/educated to maintain his status as an expert.
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Comment
6 of 29
Anonymous
May 17, 2011
Very True. At the fag end of it all we will get all our energy from Sun!
Comment
7 of 29
May 17, 2011
There was a comment under Anonymous (afraid to divulge his name!)Which reads:
"I am afraid Dr. Nellore and other experts like him are the reason renewable energy is facing such an uphill battle. The sun alone throws out more energy in one day than what the entire world (both developing and developed) consume/likely-to-need in a whole year. I hope he attends the conference and gets informed/educated to maintain his status as an expert".

First of all My Name is Dr.A.Jagadeesh, Nellore is the place where I live.

This poor guy is not at all aware of the Renewables Progress. Even a Simple Solar Water Heater, Solar Cooker are looked with awe in Developing countries. No doubt Sun is available almost everywhere but how much it costs to tap Energy? Also we have Oceans, can we get unlimited energy from it? So also lightning?

Mr.Anonymous,I am in this Renewable Energy field especially Wind for over 3 decades. I need not attend your conference, as I was Chairman of many Renewable Energy Conferences. I don't indulge in hy6pocracy. Let us neither be optimistic nor Pessimistic but realistic. If you write to me I can educate you on Renewable Energy especially Wind..

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore (AP),India
Comment
8 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dear Dr.A.Jagadeesh,

Just to be clear, Im not sure who anonymous is above but he is not linked to our conference.

To take the point that renewables cannot replace conventional energy. I clearly would disagree.

Renewables can replace conventional in both electricity generation and transport within a 20-40 year time frame. I believe this based upon 3 points.

1 Technology Innovation
In 2003 clean energy investment stood at under $50bn. In 2010 $240bn. In this additional $200bn per annum investment a considerable amount has and is going into the raw science and taking ideas out of the university and into start ups. These technologies under gestation will not fully mature for another 10+ years and lead to significant disruptive change in energy technology, the like we have never seen before. Having 3 decades experience in wind industry is probably a hindrance in weighting the significance of this impact will have.

2 Economics
The difference between the developing and developed nations are narrowing and will be based upon energy economics. Can we afford to continue to subsidise fossil fuels to the tune of $560bn per annum or should we increase clean energy beyond the $60bn renewables received last year. Subsidies do not have to last for ever, eg grid parity will be reached in Italy within 2-4 years. Within 10 years solar efficiency gains will begin to affect the likelihood of investors taking the huge risks of investing in fossil fuel generation that could end up redundant without a full lifetime of use to ensure an ROI .

3 Climate Change
Its real and fossil fuels pollute. If we start to effectively cost in the externalities of this pollution then fossil fuels cannot compete.

Kind regards

Nadim
Comment
9 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dr Barry Brooks, Foundation Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change and Director of Climate Science at The Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, disagrees, stating regarding the IPPC report: "... I will have more to say on this in an upcoming BNC post, but in short, it fails to address — with any substance — any of the significant problems I describe below, or in the previous post. What a disappointment!"

See "Renewables and efficiency cannot fix the energy and climate crises"
Part 1: http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/05/09/renewables-are-not-sufficient-p1/
Part 2: http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/05/12/renewables-are-not-sufficient-p2/
Comment
10 of 29
May 17, 2011
I don't know what you are writing NadimChaudhry. What is the percentage of Renewables like Wind,Solar PV and Thermal compared to Conventional in the most advanced Country like US? I have given the figures of Germany in my comments. Is it not self explanatory. You say the gap between developing and developed countries is narrowing. It is not all true. It seems you have no idea of Energy Deficiency in Developing countries. I was in Nigeria last year where in a major City like Lagos millions of Diesel Gen sets work.

Even in India the share of Renewables is less than 5% of total energy.

About 70% of India's energy generation capacity is from fossil fuels, with coal accounting for 40% of India's total energy consumption followed by crude oil and natural gas at 24% and 6% respectively. India is largely dependent on fossil fuel imports to meet its energy demands — by 2030, India's dependence on energy imports is expected to exceed 53% of the country's total energy consumption. In 2009-10, the country imported 159.26 million tonnes of crude oil which amount to 80% of its domestic crude oil consumption and 31% of the country's total imports are oil imports. The growth of electricity generation in India has been hindered by domestic coal shortages and as a consequence, India's coal imports for electricity generation increased by 18% in 2010.

During April-June 2010, India's peak power shortages were 12.3% and energy deficit was 9.8%, the share of renewable energy in national power output is about 4% today,

I am not opposing Renewable Energy as such and in fact staunch supporter of Renewables especially Wind. If you see my comments in Energy related topics in Electronic Journals like Renewable Energy World, you will realize how authoritative my comments and views are.

Put the RENEWABLES to WORK: To get inexhaustible, Pollution-free Energy which cannot be misused.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
Wind Energy Expert
E-mail: Anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com
Comment
11 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dear Dr Brooks,

Thanks for your blog posts. On 2 of your points on why 100% Renewables would not work

(1)Do future energy predictions factor in the development and conversions of buildings into net energy producers. In 10 years will every new construction use energy producing materials, solar roof tiles, solar glass, insulation, geothermal heat pumps and ensure buildings become energy plants. How much energy can further be saved by the widespread adoption of IT energy efficient technologies and green building retrofitting.


(2) Storage and the need to over engineer the generation system. I agree firstly a solution would be needed to provide some baseload (EGS geothermal, biopower). You can overcome localised non production issues by connecting the grids into wider transregional systems. Electric cars could also emerge as a cost effective source of energy storage.
Comment
12 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dear NadimChaudhry:

The Energy Efficient Solar Cells from materials like Gallium Arsenide, Gallium Phosphide,Tandem,Organic and Large Wind Turbines (about 7 MW) for offshore Wind farms; Energy Efficient Buildings etc ., are there to promote Renewables on a mass scale. Renewables being intermittent is a handicap besides storage on a large scale. Except countries like China, India and some most of the developing countries have not even solar water heaters, solar cookers etc.,No doubt subsidies are there for conventional energy. But these are all for political ends. Still I assert Renewables can only play a Supplementary Role but can never replace them even in areas like Power generation and Transport. As far as EVs are concerned Roads in developing countries play for the success of EVs as was evident of failure of Electric Scooters introduced long back in India.


Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore (AP), India
Wind Energy Expert
E-mail: Anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com
Comment
13 of 29
May 17, 2011
To Nadim Chaudhry:

I am not Dr. Brooks. You should comment directly on bravenewclimate.com.
Comment
14 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dear Dr.A.Jagadeesh,

(1) Energy investment in 2009 and 2010 was greater in renewables than in conventional.

(2) The gap in energy economics between developed and developing countries is narrowing, as the BRIC economies develop, the energy intensity or energy consumed per capita will increase. This will affect the ability of developing countries to continue to subsidise fossil fuels.

(3) What about climate change and the cost of carbon?

(4) Renewables are growing rapidly from a standing start and no one can predict the energy environment of 2030 beyond the fact that as energy demand increases the cost of fossil fuels go up and renewables go down. At some point a tipping point will be crossed were varying forms of renewables will become cheaper than the imports.

(5) At the moment countries subsidise fossil fuel imports over renewables. Governments are waking up to the fact that subsidising domestic renewable energy industries will lead to greater economic development, more jobs, more opportunities to recoup tax rather than sending money overseas. A number of countries are now linking clean energy subsidies to local content equipment (see Ontario). Countries such as India have the domestic market to demand these and benefit from domestic energy security policies.
Comment
15 of 29
May 17, 2011
Dear NadimChaudhry:

You are theoretical and I am practical. Our arguments never match. It is waste of time enlightening you.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
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Comment
16 of 29
Anonymous
May 17, 2011
Here is something from a Very Very Practical Virtual Horse.
I do not know dear Doctor whether you interact with utility honchos.I do and daily.I do this.

Right on this site you may read something which agrees with Nadim

We have figured out just what Mr Nadim is saying.Soon watch for action on home ground!
Thanks and regds
Comment
17 of 29
May 17, 2011
Just to show the state of Targets and Achivements in a Renewable Energy Advanced Developing Coutry like India.
Cumulative deployment of various Renewable Energy Systems/ Devices in the country as on 31/12/2010*

Renewable Energy Programme/ Systems 2010-11 Cumulative Deployment
upto 31.12.10
Target Achievements
upto 31.12.2010
I. POWER FROM RENEWABLES:
A. GRID-INTERACTIVE POWER (CAPACITIES IN MW)
Wind Power 2000 1259.03 13065.78
Small Hydro Power 300 203.92 2939.33
Biomass Power 455 143.50 997.10
Bagasse Cogeneration 216.00 1562.03
Waste to Power -Urban 17 - 19.00
-Industrial 7.50 53.46
Solar Power (SPV) 200 5.54 17.82
Total 2972 1835.49 18654.52
B. OFF-GRID/ CAPTIVE POWER (CAPACITIES IN MWEQ)
Waste to Energy -Urban
-Industrial
13.00 - 3.50
21.27 64.49
Biomass (non-bagasse) Cogeneration 75.00 53.34 274.22
Biomass Gasifiers -Rural
- Industrial 4.00 0.97 14.07
15.00 5.75 114.09
Aero-Genrators/Hybrid systems 0.50 - 1.07
SPV Systems (>1kW) 32.00 1.23 4.42
Water mills/micro hydel 2.50 - 10(1750 Nos)
Total 142.00 81.33 483.83
II. REMOTE VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION
No. of Remote Villages/ Hamlets provided with RE Systems 1500 1466 Villages & Hamlets 8033 Villages & Hamlets
III. OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
SPV Home Lighting System (Nos) – 37279 6,56,707
SPV Lanterns(Nos) - 3898 8,17,369
SPV Street Lighting System(Nos) - 1471 1,22,697
SPV Pumps(Nos) - 7495
Family Biogas Plants(Nos in lakh) 1.50 0.57 43.10
Solar Water Heating – Coll. Area(in million m2 1.00 0.50 3.97

Source: March 13th, 2011 Biharprabha Admin

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
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Comment
18 of 29
Anonymous
May 18, 2011
We are planning now 50,000 Mw of solar power and 75 GW of wind power in India.over next five years That is if every thing goes well. There are going to be many models of development
The figures that Dr has given are not very comprehensible
Comment
19 of 29
May 18, 2011
Mr.Anonymous:

Planning 50,000 MW of Solar Power and 75 GW of Wind Power in India? Are you crazy? Some years back there was a move to set up the largest Solar Plant in Rajasthan which never took off. Do you know the cost of MW Solar power and its efficiency? A lot of land has been acquired by Developers to put up solar plants as the Government announced National Solar Mission but nothing happened till now.


The Mission targets are:
• To create an enabling policy framework for the deployment of 20,000 MW
of solar power by 2022.
• To ramp up capacity of grid-connected solar power generation to 1000 MW
within three years – by 2013; an additional 3000 MW by 2017 through the
mandatory use of the renewable purchase obligation by utilities backed with a
preferential tariff. This capacity can be more than doubled – reaching
10,000MW installed power by 2017 or more, based on the enhanced and
enabled international finance and technology transfer. The ambitious target
for 2022 of 20,000 MW or more, will be dependent on the 'learning' of the first
two phases, which if successful, could lead to conditions of grid-competitive
solar power. The transition could be appropriately up scaled, based on
availability of international finance and technology.
• To create favourable conditions for solar manufacturing capability, particularly
solar thermal for indigenous production and market leadership.
• To promote programmes for off grid applications, reaching 1000 MW by 2017
and 2000 MW by 2022 .
• To achieve 15 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2017 and 20
million by 2022.
• To deploy 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022.

If you and your group are planning 50,000 MW of solar power and 75 GW of wind power in India., why remain anonymous? You will be the biggest Industrialist in India and promoter of Renewable Energy!

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore (AP), India
Comment
20 of 29
May 18, 2011
That's great news! But please leave 20% to Waste to Energy endeavors as we need to clean-up our planet, too!
http://jayarec.juneayasol.com
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Comment
21 of 29
Anonymous
May 18, 2011
We are not following the traditional thinking route. Well I am a consultant . It is my client who has this up his sleeve.And he has companies all in 20 Billion dollar range and it is not one 20 Billion Dollar co.So cheer up!
I will get to you when we launch our Wind Power inititative.It will come various packs .Like you said there are some difference of opinion. So we are now opening a platform for discussion. but there is an agreement in toto
regards
Comment
22 of 29
May 18, 2011
Mr.Anonymous:

Don't waste other's precious time. Do some productive activity. May God Bless you.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
Comment
23 of 29
June 15, 2011
Mohmed Cassam

The determiant factors are the cost in $/btus and $/kwh at market. Globally oil and gas reserves are abundant, reserves are increasing every year thanks to well head prices, drlling and technology. Check BP.com. Reserves are not a fixed quantity; they are dynamic and depend on drilling.

Renewables will increase their share of total energy consumption; subsidies will increase the rate. But it will take time and each country will have different experience. There never will be 100% substitution because of cost in $/btus and $/kwh.
Comment
24 of 29
June 15, 2011
Mohmed Cassam

Indian Government plans and targets are pipe dreams. In 2008 China was commissioning 1,000 MW per month. India's record? While Indian Govt starves investment, it massively subsidises oil and power consumption (upper caste farmers get free electricity) to the tune of 4% of GDP. Not very good environment for renewables.
Comment
25 of 29
June 16, 2011
Please Wait and Watch the Action. We will create 10,000 Engineers as entrepreneurs thru Webina5r Education in this year which will take up Renewable Projects
Comment
26 of 29
October 11, 2011
What is the point in talking about how small is the amount of renewable energy today? The fact that renewable energy has been a novelty in the past has nothing to do with it's ability to be a dominant part of energy production in the future. with only 10 years effort, Germany has provided 21% of it's electricity from renewable sources. In 2010 the USA saw renewable energy hit 12% which passed the nuclear power contribution to electricity, again with only one decade of installations. Wind power is now the lowest cost of new power on land in good locations, and solar power is also at grid parity in many areas. The need for energy storage is overstated, as wind power spread over large areas solves much of the variability, and if gas is needed to back up for low wind periods, that is still far better than gas for full time use. Solar is perfect for offsetting daytime peak power use. Geothermal, hydro CSP with storage are all full time power options. Pumped storage hydro is used in many areas as backup for wind, without the need for fossil fuel backup for wind. As others have mentioned, in remote areas, the use of solar has shown itself to be better than using small diesel generators as the lack of fuel overcomes the initial larger investment. The health effects of using coal has been estimated to be as high as $500 billion a year in the US. When fossil fuel and nuclear harms are figured into costs, renewable energy is the lowest cost way to go. It is only by hiding the costs of fossil fuel and nuclear power harms that they appear competitive at first glance. Many of the necessary cleanups from coal and nuclear remain unresolved, adding additional costs over time that will continue long after their contribution is gone, like the mountains of toxic coal ash in hundreds of locations, and the nuclear waste that consists of great expense to be dealt with, over generations to come. The cost of not changing our energy supplies to clean sources is unacceptable.
Comment
27 of 29
October 11, 2011
There is also the subject of global warming to be considered. what is the cost of flooding in the overdeveloped coastal areas around the world where the heaviest population centers are located? what happens when salt water encroaches higher up rivers, and fresh water for irrigation is no longer available for food production near the coasts? The continued use of fossil fuels will raise sea levels, and is already resulting in the loss of arctic ice at both poles and in mountain ranges. These costs are not added to the cost of fossil fuel use. Only those invested in fossil fuel and nuclear power are against the use of renewable energy. Certainly the populations of the world have stated repeatedly that clean energy is an important subject. Around 2/3 of people around the world do not want to continue the use of nuclear power. It is being imposed on most of the population against their will by governments. No one has ever had their electric bills reduced after the installation of nuclear power. Most have seen costs rise every year, and surcharges for nuclear power are collected, but never refunded when the plants are not built. Home solar power gives people the opportunity to be their own producer, with payoffs in 10 years and less in many areas. For the consumer this is a big advantage, compared to centralized utility power that will never stop charging no matter when the equipment is paid for. In the past the public was held hostage by utilities, at what ever prices they wanted to charge. With the dropping costs of solar power the use of home systems will continue to increase exponentially. As people see their neighbors enjoying lower costs of power and the end of electric bills, they too will want to join the home solar revolution.

The fossil fuel and nuclear shills can talk all they like, but the change will occur because it must, and because it makes sense. Decentralized power is better for the citizens, and that is enough to ensure it's success.
Comment
28 of 29
October 13, 2011
a link to the ipcc report would be useful
Comment
29 of 29
October 14, 2011
http://www2.greenpowerconferences.co.uk/RE1106UK if you sign into the report centre all the links for all 100% reports are there
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Carl Levesque

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About: Carl is Editor & Publications Manager at the American Wind Energy Association, where has worked since 2006. At AWEA he oversees AWEA's online and print publicat... more »

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