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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? ×

Watch Out California, Here Comes the Rest of the U.S.

California is still a very important solar market; however, it's losing ground to a diverse range of up-and-coming states.

Stephen Lacey, Editor
April 06, 2011  |  9 Comments

The U.S. solar PV market is becoming increasingly fragmented. And while that's somewhat frustrating for solar businesses working across states with different incentives and regulations, it's a very good thing for the overall health of the national market.

In 2005, California represented 80% of the U.S. solar market; today, it's only 30%. According to a recent report from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association, East Coast markets – lead by New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina – installed more solar than California in 2010.

With Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas putting up solid numbers in the top ten states, the Western markets are still proving dominant. But the emergence of a diverse range of Eastern markets in the top list is evidence that the U.S. solar market is becoming increasingly diverse.

I attended the PV America conference this week and spoke to a wide range of folks in the industry about this shift.

In 2007, there were only four states that developed over 10 MW of PV; in 2010, 16 states reached that threshold. Below, Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, talks about why that's so significant. He also describes why the scattered nature of the American solar market will actually create more sustainable growth in the long-term.

I also interviewed Shayle Kann, the managing director for solar at GTM Research, about how the diverse American market fits into the similarly-diverse international picture. With between 1.5 GW and 2 GW of solar PV potentially coming online in the U.S. in 2011, it will still only represent a small portion of the 20 GW expected globally. But that share will continue to grow as Germany, Italy, the UK and Ontario continue reducing their Feed-in Tariffs.

One other surprising trend in 2010 was the growth in U.S. manufacturing capacity. Despite gloomy reports about the country losing the global race to establish a strong solar manufacturing base, the U.S. increased wafer production by 97% (to 1,018 MW), cell production by 81% (to 1,657 MW) and module assembly by 62% (to 1,684 MW).

China still dominates the manufacturing sector, representing more than 70% of added production capacity in 2010, according to iSuppli. Some onlookers believe that with the right policies, America could catch up. But Alan King, VP and general manager of Canadian Solar, doesn't see that happening. He says the lack of a coherent federal policy – along with the patchwork of state and local markets – make investing in U.S.-based production facilities a guessing game.

The take away from all of this? The U.S. is clearly a growth market well into the future, with states continuing to lead the way. While the scattered framework creates a more sustainable macro-environment for solar, it still has its limitations.

If the federal government continues to put off establishing a federal clean energy target, creating a price mechanism for carbon and forming coherent permitting and interconnection standards, those factors could be the difference between a good solar market and a great solar market.

9 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
April 8, 2011
Also, there's a cost of conflict of rare earth materials, risk and other things?
Bob Kingery
Bob Kingery
April 8, 2011
Most renewable energy advocates agree that subsidies are not the best method to promote a fair playing field. Most would also like to see all subsidies removed from all fuel types. The reality is renewables receive much less total $ subsidy than the fossil fuel industries. Period. Ask any group of people if they think the price of fuel will drop in the next 10 years. Nearly everyone agrees fossil fuel prices will rise. The price of deploying renewables is dropping rapidly. Period. It makes great sense for all where the price of energy is high and where there is large peaking energy demand. Eventually this will be all of America.
Thomas M
Thomas M
April 8, 2011
Why do we need policy at all. Solar products are available for all to purchase and use just like any other unsubsidized product. We have to stop looking towareds out gov. for money and good advice, both of which they have none.
Pamela Cargill
Pamela Cargill
April 8, 2011
Buck, not quite what I was getting at. Let me explain.

Unfortunately, a big problem the solar industry has is that we are incentivizing at the wrong part of the value chain. For example, the companies that develop oil fields get huge tax credits and the cost savings there get passed down the line eventually to the gas pump. The true cost of gasoline is masked from the end user, and since levelized cost calculations are still a relatively "new" analysis to the game, the numbers aren't getting wider media attention yet. Gas costs are artificially low.

Unfortunately with solar, we have a system that subsidizes the end user, so the costs are visible all the way down the line and then a confusing attempt to mitigate them is met. Why not use those subsidize or provide tax credits to manufacturing or another part of the upstream value chain? Then we wouldn't need this piecemeal system of state incentive programs.

Of course, that would also mean we would have to have a strong national solar policy, a prospect that is looking increasingly gloomy as the federal government can't even come to an agreement on its operating budget for 2011.
Christof Demont-Heinrich
Christof Demont-Heinrich
April 8, 2011
@Buck -- In fact we're all paying for, and subsidizing, the continued use of "cheap" fossil fuels such as oil and coal, quite literally, with our health and via health care costs that add up to hundreds of billions every year.

But I guess you'd rather end up with cancer or a heart attack than build a clean, renewable energy economy that will literally save millions of lives, and billions of dollars around the world every year.

"Cheap" fossil fuels = a complete and total myth.
BUCK SHAW
BUCK SHAW
April 8, 2011
Pam's right, pull that rug out and then the real Market will show up.
The only trouble is I'm paying for that Rug........
Thomas M
Thomas M
April 7, 2011
If you look back, this usually applies to most technologies. It starts in CA then MA and others in the NE follow. I think it has a little to do with money and education.
ANONYMOUS
April 6, 2011
Wonderful news. http://openpv.nrel.gov/
Pamela Cargill
Pamela Cargill
April 6, 2011
Watch Massachusetts. I can only imagine it will be on the top 10 list of MW installed shortly.

Unfortunately, the fragmentation amongst state-by-state policies creates barriers of excess operating complexity for regional or multi-state companies. It also create a "death sentence" atmosphere for extremely small companies that operate in only one state. If the incentive program rug is pulled out from beneath those players....

There are a lot of smart people in the industry working on reducing costs on all fronts. Hopefully, these benefits will reach all the way the long tail of small installers, too.

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Stephen Lacey

Stephen Lacey

I am a reporter with ClimateProgress.org, a blog published by the Center for American Progress. I am former editor and producer for RenewableEnergyWorld.com, where I contributed stories and hosted the Inside Renewable Energy Podcast. Keep...
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