Ontario's Solar PV Installations May Surpass California in 2011

David Z.,

Although a good idea, I don't think the federal government in Ottawa has the jurisdictional authority to implement a national FIT program. This authority, I believe, resides with the provinces.

IMHO, the federal government should launch a study (with a defined budget and timeline, of course) to determine what is the best action (or combination of actions) that is within their authority and would best drive long term sustainable growth of PV in Canada. The result should apply to grid-tie PV as well as off-grid / hybrid systems. A national SREC (Solar Renewable Energy Credits) program and Investment Tax Credit (like the one in the US) incentive are possible options.

Andrew

Good points, David Z.

On #1, the stampede phenomenon is interesting but may not apply in Ontario due to how price change(s) are implemented. If the Ground mount decision and debate is any example, the OPA effectively avoided a spike.

On #3, there is a new article today on a California case study on the syergistic benefits of Time of Use rates and peak reduction from Solar PV systems:

http://d-bits.com/tou-rates-favor-pv/

Regards, David

I see three factors for an increased volume of Solar PV business. From my experience with Solar PV rooftop leases, we did 30Mw last year and plan to ramp up 5X to achieve 150Mw this year:

1. Political moves by Ontario Power Authority's 2 yr program review and the Ontario provincial election coming up in October 2011. As seen in European countries, any threatened changes to the highly profitable FIT program rates has resulted in a stampede of applications to get in before the door closes. Rooftop rates CAD$0.713 < 250kw are the highest in the world so political pressure may reduce rates but without killing the momentum.

2. A high volume critical mass of new solar PV applicants will be supported by the mature business experience of solar companies who have been advertising for a year+. A satisfied customer with a new system proudly tells 5 friends and now referrals start to snowball. Those friends tell others the program may change and it goes nuts!

3. Smart meter installation program is nearly finished on 4 Million Ontario homes and businesses. Now the Local Distribution Companies (LDC) will implement Time of Use (TOU) rates which will penalize peak hour users. When load shifting isn't possible, those customers most impacted will be highly motivated to offset the increased electric bill costs with a Solar PV installation as a priority. They can't afford to wait to see October FIT results since harsh TOU rates cause an impact before and after.

Together, I feel these three factors will contribute to a perfect storm of increased solar PV business for 2011 that will top California.

P.S. Could a Canada wide National FIT program be the political answer to offset increased oil sands production and turn Canada's black eye "Fossil of the Year" reputation into a green energy super hero?

Yes Peter. I didn't get into that level of detail. However, if I do a detailed analysis using location specific weather data, I find that there is a significant north/south levelling factor. Further north than CA, it's still quite bright and sunny but it's colder. You can calculate a generally applicable north/south factor by taking the typical thermal coefficient of PV efficiency versus the north/south gradient of average temperatures, although summer temperature is perhaps a better number as you progress northward towards the land of the midnight sun. In a more detailed analysis, what you need to look at is temperature and cloud cover in combination around the year to get a clearer economic picture. In parts of the northern midwest, there is a confluence of very clear days and very long days. Temperature and air movement (wind) are both important factors and one can improve on both by using elevation so in the US midwest and southwest, what you should exploit is the confluence of high insolation, low humidity and high elevation - available in some abundance in this area.
Note: that when you factor cloud cover, areas with episodic cloudiness are better than those with prolonged overcast.

Peter should have said California has way, way, way more solar potential than Germany. One has to go to Northern Ontario to find levels of insolation equivalent to southern Germany. Best locations in California with high insolation and low humidity have several times greater PV potential and several times the payback. The locations with the best PV potential in Ontario are next to northern Minnesota while the best in Canada is in southern Saskatchewan next to northern Montana. These areas have superior PV potential to Germany and it only gets better as you progress south and west across the continent. One must wonder how good does it have to get? One can include Montana, Idaho,Wyoming, Nevada, Utah,Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico in the list of pikers.

ClearSky Advisors have done an excellent job, especially for such a nascent market. In the case of 2011, their forecasts could even underestimate the potential.

In fact, between the 257 MW of utility scale projects released this past Feb 24 (discussed by ClearSky here: http://www.clearskyadvisors.com/643/new-solar-contracts-welcomed-by-solar-industry-but-something-has-to-give/) and the roughly 150 MW of approved but uninstalled microFIT contracts, the 400 MW projection for 2011 is arguably already firm demand.


Where it gets tricky is tyring to figure out how much of this will actually be connected and completed. As the ClearSky article points out, there are potential issues with the Ontario Energy Board and targets of the Long Term Energy Plan. Then there are the challenges with the constrained grid. There is a wide gap, for example, between submitted and approved microFIT applications and actual installations.

This challenge is summarized with this week's latest Ontario data here:

http://d-bits.com/is-ontario-fit-program-losing-momentum/

CanSIA is already taking an active role with Hydro One to try and get approved projects connected. It is likely to take more concerted effort of this kind from the new, job-creating industry, to realize the market potential. Market demand is there, the supply is avaible. Now we need the Ontario 'system' to respond.