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Solar System Performance-based Monitoring: A Strategic Imperative

Thomas A. Dinkel , SunReports
November 01, 2010  |  7 Comments

The advent of a new breed of renewable energy monitoring solutions – aka "Monitoring 2.0" – has created a new strategic imperative for installers. In many jurisdictions rebates are tied to extended warranty periods, 10 years in CA for example, and installers are required to support their installations throughout that period. The use of monitoring can help installers mitigate their risks, tie predicted and actual system performance information together and enable new business models to secure gross margin dollars beyond those tied to the installation.

Monitoring 1.0

Traditional monitoring utilized off-the-shelf products that were combined into a system and placed into an enclosure. These products are data gathering devices, web servers, power supplies, etc. and limit the cost structure of those monitoring solutions to price points that do not allow significant market penetration at the residential level.

The California Public Utilities Commission in its rulemaking for the CSI (California Solar Initiative) program about monitoring for residential PV deemed that costs above one percent of the system price were too high, and thus allowed customers to opt out of monitoring for their systems. While some view this as shortsighted and the equivalent of purchasing a car without a speedometer or odometer, others view solar systems as appliances and advocate that they should “just work” and presumably just keep on working. Evidence points to the contrary, however.

Recent public statements by leading solar installers in the PV market point to a 1 in 10 system failure rate within the first year of operation – an “infant mortality rate” that is too high for the emerging solar marketplace. If the analysis is extended to the full 20+ years of expected operation of the PV panels, one can predict with confidence that there will be a 100 percent failure rate of the system due to inverter failure.

While the manufacturers warranty the panels for 20+ years, the average lifespan of inverters remains between 10-12 years. Therefore, over the course of the lifespan of the panels, one can accurately predict with 100 percent certainty that the inverter(s) will fail. If system failure was a more spectacular event, this may not be such a big issue, however the systems tend to fail “quietly” and simply stop working. Therefore it may be several months before the owner of an un-monitored system realizes that something is amiss.

Solar thermal systems suffer a similar fate. Most, if not all, solar water heating systems utilize a “back-up re-heat coil” for those cloudy days when the solar gain is not enough to heat the water adequately. How does one determine if the solar thermal system is operating to its designed capacity without monitoring? A loss of glycol pressurization may cause the system to become inoperable, however the controller will still call for the pump to run, and the pump may indeed run, without circulating any heating medium. The back-up coil continues to heat the water and the system owner continues to take hot showers, even though the system if effectively off.

Enter Monitoring 2.0

The latest wave of monitoring systems, such as the SunReports Apollo1, has taken a fresh look at the requirements for residential monitoring applications. Displaying actual versus estimated performance data via online portals, Monitoring 2.0 solutions place a strong emphasis on both providing system owners with relevant information and providing installers with the data they need to cost-effectively manage their installation portfolio.

Installers are now able to monitor their installations from a remote location, and, utilizing a Google-maps based interface see at-a-glance the status of their entire installed base. Further some systems provide the ability to plot a “predicted performance” line on the graphs for both kWh and BTU, enabling the installer to have tangible evidence of the accuracy of performance predictions.

Since virtually all solar energy systems are sold on an ROI or payback basis to the end user, it seems logical that both the installers and end users would want to know what the payback or ROI actually is. Not knowing this can open up liability down the road if the proposals contain miscalculations or exaggerated performance estimates, or if system performance does not measure up to the proposal’s promises.

With Monitoring 2.0, if a system goes offline or deviates from the predicted performance by a user-defined percentage, alarms are dispatched to alert the installer to the performance deviation. As a risk-mitigation strategy – both on the performance vs. the proposal and on the performance vs. warranty – the closed-loop feedback components of such a monitoring system become quite important.

Similar graphical representations of the performance of a solar thermal system are available, with predicted BTU values similarly input by the installer.

By matching the actual system performance to the predicted performance as promised to the customer, the installer is able to offer other value- and revenue-creating services such as performance-based panel cleaning, performance assurance, energy guarantees or the ability to demonstrate PPA performance against an estimate.

Through the use of performance-based monitoring, installers are able to differentiate themselves from their competition, as well offer new services that were not possible before being able to track system performance remotely. It is anticipated that the leading installers will share the predicted vs. actual performance with their customers, to demonstrate that their payback is actually happening as promised. A hidden benefit of monitoring the system is that the installer will now have tangible evidence of system performance issues when dealing with inverter or panel manufacturers on warranty claims, something that can’t be done without a monitoring system in place.

The sales “sizzle” that monitoring provides will enable system owners to share performance data with their friends, or in the case of small commercial customers, with their patrons by way of public displays showcasing green benefits of their solar installations. Already upscale health club facilities, laundromats and car washes are doing this.

With monitoring costs now at or below the one percent range of PV system prices, it is anticipated that end users will opt for monitoring, particularly when installers demonstrate their use and the monitoring system’s benefits. Installers will no doubt begin to offer performance-based options that will enable them to capture more value for each sale by being able to extract additional revenue, and profit, from each customer. Further, it is anticipated that new service offerings as mentioned above will enable the installer to capture additional gross margin dollars from each customer, and spread the increased margin capture across their 10-year warranty obligations.

Thomas Dinkel is the CEO of SunReports, Inc, and has many years in the renewable energy business, holding leadership positions with companies such as Johnson Controls, Honeywell, Cupertino Electric, Whisper Communications, and Fat Spaniel Technologies. His experience working with both large and small companies helps provide a basis for understanding the needs of the installer as well as the needs of the end user. His passion is creating innovative, high value products, culminating in outstanding customer satisfaction and “knock your socks off” customer experiences.

7 Comments

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Steve Yang, P.E.
Steve Yang, P.E.
May 1, 2011
I had concluded that simple monitoring --as championed by FatSpaniel (now a side feature at Power-One) was just feel-good monitoring. Wattminder.com has been working on analytics --analysis, assessment & diagnostics for photovoltaics. Our framework can easily be adapted to that of another energy generator by a version of mathematical model, and a knowledge base that captures performance characteristics of components in a system. We like to invite SunReports' consideration in such an effort. --Steve aka solarMD,PVSleuth
thomas dinkel
thomas dinkel
November 4, 2010
Hello All -

Great comments all -

The 1 in 10 failure rate on residential PV comment came out during a SolarTech conf earlier this year and was by one of the leading innovators in the financing of residential solar. I have confirmed that this 'is about right' with a former employee of SunPower and with various other installers with enough installations under their belt to have a decent sample size. Failure can be from a variety of issues - and the 'partial failure' caused by wiring mistakes may never be noticed without some sort of monitoring in place.

I should point out that the issues in Solar HW and Pool Heating are just as real - and that SunReports monitors all three plus small wind as well as heat pumps and geothermal - anything with a 'pulse' that we can tap into with temp sensors or flow sensors.

Accuracy is of paramount importance, and the end to end accuracy of the system must be considered. We use inverter direct monitoring which is arguably as accurate as 'revenue grade' ANSI C12 metering, and I encourage the inverter companies to test and post their internal metering accuracy. In discussions with various inverter manufacturers, they indicate that a +/- 1% error rate is typical for their metering, however they have not been certified and therefor cannot be used for REC reporting in some jurisdictions without considerable effort to be authorized (WREGIS, for example).

As alternative cash flow models become available (such as RECs and / or carbon trading) to support the adoption of solar, inexpensive and accurate reporting must follow. And to paraphrase Einstein: we should strive to make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. This applies to REC tracking and reporting, as well as monitoring.
Abby Watson
Abby Watson
November 4, 2010
I response to thereisapopupintheway's comment, in my experience the truth you get from monitoring is in fact too ugly to use as a selling point. It is difficult to explain to a layman why their X kW DC-rated system is going to make even less AC energy than the conversion factor because of wiring losses, lack of standard test conditions, weather, etc. The other issue with monitoring that few people talk about is the lack of certification for its accuracy. I have seen Enphase monitoring data is consistently higher than the output measured on an analog solar meter, which is what is used for billing purposes. Monitors need to be certified that they are properly calibrated to deliver accurate data, and that is going to be tricky for monitoring microinverters particularly. A microinverter monitor is giving you the reading right at the solar panel, before it goes through the wiring of the structure, and is doomed to innacuracy until enough data can be gathered to write the proper algorithm to account for those losses. Monitors are only as good as the accuracy of the equipment.
Rich Barbarics
Rich Barbarics
November 4, 2010
True, knowing system PV production is important. But, unfortunately, the benchmark forecast isn't easy to calculate. Even NREL says it's forecast production estimates can be off 10 % per year or 20 % per month. So maybe it is possible to create a production band(s) of optimistic, expected and pessimistic and when production deviates from that, set off an alarm. By using cumulative numbers per given year, you'd account for above average production and so not panic with a short term performance decrease. This would help some although a visual check of surrounding area for trees that have grown and are now obstructive and some cleaning maintenence would likely be more cost effective. However, you also need a good estimate of panel degradation over time. Most buyers will know when the system has failed due to major components noted but long term gradual degradation is a lot more difficult to ascertain and only quasi scientific. We have a bad habit of applying accounting certainty to processes which are probabilistic at best and that has to be avoided since everyone's time will be wasted.
Ken Wright
Ken Wright
November 3, 2010
Monitoring removes the uncertainty of the investment. The salesman can show a similar system in the same neighborhood actually working in real time while at the neighbor's kitchen table closing the deal. This eliminates the biggest hurdle, the fear that this will all just be a huge waste of money. This is like taking the potential customer around to every other site you have in operation. The only issue is that it reveals the true economics of what is going on and sometimes those are ugly truths that actually hurt the sales possibilities. We at Hot Sun Industries Inc http://www.h2otsun.com are actively pursuing this same web based monitoring and control capability because solar pool heating has a return on investment as little as 2 years and that is in the free market with no subsidies whatsoever. That is against natural gas not electricity. With monitoring of solar pool heaters,pv and hot water, we can all help the public make better solar energy decisions. Quantification is key and it takes away the ability of the unscrupulous salesman to mislead or plead blissful ignorance. Do PV monitoring systems really show us the numbers that let us make an economic decision as opposed to an environmental one? Are we really getting verification that our initial promises are correct. Seriously I'm asking as a solar professional that doesn't do PV. Early on there were a lot of misleading claims even by the CEC. Do these new monitored PV systems really show us attractive enough numbers that sales are actually helped by this information or is this still an ugly truth? Let's have a look at some monitored results up against actual up front costs. If the truth is positive let the truth be known.
Vladimir Naoumov
Vladimir Naoumov
November 3, 2010
I greatly agree with you. Monitoring systems are a must, as after all a solar PV array is meant to be a profitable investment. And the good thing is that they are becoming more and more common.
One question I have is that you mention: "Recent public statements by leading solar installers in the PV market point to a 1 in 10 system failure rate within the first year of operation". Do you have any solid backing to that statement? I would gladly use it in my work, but I would want to know whom it's coming from.
Thanks
Rich Hessler
Rich Hessler
November 2, 2010
I think it's great we can easily monitor our energy production/consumption just like an investment account on Ameritrade.

For those property owners needing a new electrical panel, a Smart Electrical Panel provides PV Monitoring with the added benefit of user circuit level control over consumption and user switching between on/off grid energy sources. More savings for buyers = more contractor revenue.

Smart Electrical Panel for PV Monitoring System:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/rich-hessler-solar/products/pv-monitoring-system

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thomas dinkel

thomas dinkel

Many years in the energy space with both large and small companies, including Johnson Controls, Honeywell, Whisper Communications, FatSpaniel and most recently SunReports. Intrigued and excited about the renewable energy and energy conservation...
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