Blog from Intersolar North America

Day 1: Intersolar North America 2010

Intersolar North America 2010 is underway, and the single best word to describe it is "momentum.” The show is mobbed, and there’s a huge concentration of real customers -- a refreshing difference from other industry conferences, where customers don’t always show up. It’s really a great environment if you’re supplying into the PV value chain.

If you’re a buyer of PV systems, however, you might be facing some concerns. I’ve spent a good bit of time today with module and inverter companies, and I’m hearing about real shortages in both areas, despite big capacity increases by module makers. Some customers are reportedly still on allocation.

At first blush, it sounds similar to the pattern that emerged last year, with significantly higher demand in the second half over the first. It looks like there is going to be some uncertainty around projects scheduled for 3Q and 4Q, based on availability and, inevitably, pricing, which seems to be trending upward now.

It’s likely that prices will go down again in 1Q11 as supply and demand come back into balance, but if you’re trying to get a project in this year and you’re buying your modules and inverters on the open market, you’re exposed.

It all points to ongoing seesaw between supply and demand in this market sector.

Day 2: The buzz continues, despite Golden State uncertainty

It's Day two at Intersolar and things are still humming. While some trade shows have a hot first day and a lull on the second, there’s no sign of that at Intersolar this year. Our booth was just as busy today, and the show floor is still mobbed. A good sign for everyone involved!

We’ve been hearing from module companies that the electrical balance-of-system (BOS) component of solar arrays is emerging as a primary focus area for cost reduction and efficiency improvements. This is due in part to the fact that so much of this work has already been done on modules and inverters, and in part to the creativity of vendors, who are doing some very innovative work. The wiring companies are making the installer’s job easier, with custom-built cable harnesses, while also building in system electronics, combiner boxes, and other components that would otherwise have to be custom-wired on site.

On the financial side, we’re getting a sense that the important California market is in something of an uncertain period, with the ground shifting on things like subsidies and renewable energy credits. It’s understandable that the agencies involved will need to constantly assess their programs -- but from a bankability perspective, it makes it very challenging to calculate the ROI of a solar project. These conditions inevitably lead to an excess of conservatism and lower volumes, as financiers have to assume the worst. More clarity, please!

On a lighter note, we’ve been impressed by the fact that several companies are serving beer in their booths – bottles and cups are in evidence on the show floor, even at 11 am, which may help explain the lively atmosphere. We were disappointed, though, that the Spanish booth did not have the World Cup trophy on hand.

Day 3: Energetic, practical, and mature

On the final day of Intersolar North America 2010, the energy levels have remained high. The aisles have been just as busy as they were on day one, and the exhibitors we've spoken with are pretty much unanimous that it's been a very productive show.

The booths have been very lively, with lots of creative methods of getting attention and driving traffic, unlike some of the more conservative old-line shows. One interesting trend is the use of installation-oriented videos -- there must be at least 20-30 companies using ease of installation as a talking (and viewing) point.

This suggests a growing maturity in the industry; a move beyond straight technology as a sales message, and a sense that practical details are becoming more and more important. And this message likely found a receptive audience among the many installers we saw walking the floor (and even, in a couple of cases, exhibiting).

Also on the practical and maturing side of things, we had representatives at a workshop on industry collaboration sponsored by PV Group, where there seemed to be a good consensus that everyone would benefit from more-extensive cooperation. Attendees drew parallels with the semiconductor industry, including things like the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), and relatively strong standards-setting bodies.

Safety and bankability seem like prime areas of opportunity, along with things like end-of-life provisions for modules. A dark horse might be electrical balance-of-systems technology -- standardization there could help drive down costs and ease installation and maintenance compared to today's situation where every installation is unique.

--Oliver Janssen, EIQ Energy, for Photovoltaics World