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Same Story, Different Study: NREL Western Report Shows 30% Wind Do-able, Cost-Effective

By Carl Levesque, AWEA
May 27, 2010   |   14 Comments

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14 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 14
May 28, 2010
Quite obviously if you spend enough you can get enough energy from the wind - no matter what sort of hopeless system is deployed - to do whatever - but for how long ?.
The question "how much energy is returned, compared to how much is expended in creating the system ?" is to date, to my knowledge, conspicuous
by its absence. This is probably a "so what" to the people coining it out of current "technology", but is - if we sober-up - the bottom-line, be-all or end-all, question. The only answer that I have ever seen was inadvertently supplied at a public meeting in Llandeilo uk, in July '05. Here we learned that the cost od the proposed farm was 153M, and the expected annual income from sale of energy (not from subsisies from coal, oil, gas etc.) would be 0.2M. With a functional life of 25 years this comes to about 25 x .2M or 5M. 3% is that of the enery required to replace it ? Has arithmatic changed ? Do I need to go on the "booster course" maybe ?
Comment
2 of 14
May 28, 2010
Wind energy has an Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) which is dependent on many parameters, but averages nearly 20. This means that a wind park project produces about 20 times more energy over its lifetime than is used in construction, operation and removal.
Comment
3 of 14
May 28, 2010
Bert, I would guess that the 0.2M is after repaying the turbines, doing O&M and paying for system services. And that seems quite low, knowing the UK wind climate. I'm sure that guys like T. Boone Pickens use the same arithmetic as you do, otherwise they wouldn't be where they are now. Maybe the wind power tutorial at windpower.org would help, or the fact sheets available from EWEA.org?

However, if you meant an energy balance for the turbines, it's hard to assess the environmental benefit of more transmission, but a normal turbine creates as much energy as its construction has used in 3-6 months, leaving the rest of the turbine life time to have net energy gain.
Comment
4 of 14
May 28, 2010
ERCOT reports Texas got about 1% from wind in 2009 and forecasts less than 2% in 2015. Total US wind was 1.75% of grid in 2009. 30% is a pipe dream.
Comment
5 of 14
May 28, 2010
Michael O'Sullivan of NextEra Energy, Iowa's second-largest producer of wind power, told the American Wind Energy Association meeting in Dallas this week: "Our product is too expensive relative to other options. Our competitive advantage has largely evaporated."
For the first months of 2010 wind energy is actually down from 2009 per the latest from the EIA. Natural gas just beats wind. Layoffs coming.
Comment
6 of 14
May 28, 2010
While I don't want to detract from the value of this important extensive study done by the NREL-led team, the euphoric reaction to it in the press causes me some concern. This study, nor any other similar study of this scope that I know of, did not address the the questions of renewable generation integration with the electric grid at the level of detail where the real issues might be, which is in the general category of dynamic stability of the grid, and the impact that variable generation in large amounts might have. Granted, studies at this level are difficult and complicated, but they should be done before we find the answers the hard way through the real life "experiments" we are now entering into.
Comment
7 of 14
May 28, 2010
Carl has such a great talent for making the most complicated things so clear and so relevant. Nice work.
No image available
Comment
8 of 14
Anonymous
May 28, 2010
Merwin, I believe that the California Independant System Operator is looking at the effect of high levels of intermittent renewables on the grid. Details can be found at the following link:

http://www.caiso.com/1c51/1c51c7946a480.html
Comment
9 of 14
May 29, 2010
One of the problems with integrating large scale wind projects into the power grid is that it is not a demand source of energy. If the wind suddenly drops off another source of power will be needed to replace to make up for the short fall. If the short fall cannot be made up more drastic measure will have to be made. Such as load shaving. (Black outs) If this is not done the imbalance in the power grid could bring down the power grid itself. (The great north east black out)
Most power grid systems could support about 8% wind power generation. If you increase wind generating capacity beyond these levels it gets more difficult to make up for sudden changes in wind power output fluctuations.
The power companies are required to have 2% reserve capacity to handle sudden changes in power demand. This will not fully cover wind all the wind power. To reduce the chance of this happening power companies do not place the wind generators in one location. This will reduce the effect weather has on over all wind power output. If levels above 8% are required then energy storage system should be installed to smooth out wind power output. These systems maybe large battery storage systems that could provide power until more conventional power could be brought on line.
Smart grid technology could be of some help in this area. By doing load shaving. Example: Remotely turning off your hot water heater or airconditioner for a short periods of time. (5 to 60 minutes)
Comment
10 of 14
May 29, 2010
The weakest point on the wind turbines are the gear boxes. After so many years of operation the gear box need to be rebuilt. The good news is that newer designs are eliminating the gear box. This should improve the reliability of the wind turbine.
Comment
11 of 14
May 29, 2010
The grid to designed, built and operated to be robust and stable. Sometimes fossil fueled generation plant fail and the grid looses 500MW or 1,000MW of power supply. Wind power does not add anything new to the way the grid system operates, it has always been able to cope with the loss of the largest generator by having enough plant not at 100% power output and/or some plant hot standby. In general, from many studies in many countries, on this issue world-wide wind can have about 15-20% of installed capacity without effecting how the grid operates very much.

If you look up the Enercon company in Germany you will see a company who has made direct drive turbines for many years. With larger turbines and the move offshore the direct drive design, although tending to be more costly to produce, is being offered by more suppliers.
Comment
12 of 14
May 30, 2010
Rolf, you misinterpreted the data. I do not have full year 2009 numbers but in February Texas got 1.6 TWh of a total 26 TWh from wind, roughly 6%. The number is lower in summer so full-year generation was probably about 4%. You may have read ERCOT's planning report on available capacity, which uses a 8.9% capacity factor for wind. Actual TX wind capacity factor is almost 4x that much, so actual generation exceeds their planning numbers by the same 4x.
Comment
13 of 14
June 1, 2010
The NREL study does not "underscore the importance of transmission." In their modeling, they were able to integrate 30% wind into the system with only modest investment in new regional transmission (although a fair amount of in-state collector systems could be needed).

NREL used the existing grid and resources, and modeled wind production, load, etc. on a sub-hourly basis throughout the year. They took full advantage of the physical capacity of existing transmission lines; i.e., they did not constrain their model by existing contractual transmission rights. The NREL study suggests that we could get a lot more wind on the current grid just by making regulatory and operating changes.
Comment
14 of 14
June 3, 2010
The NREL report left so many of the variables out that are essential that I consider the report a waste of time; what was down played was the importance of storage and the big if of minute by minute of wind forecasting. Also played down was the curtailment issues and how that reality would affect the wind farms. Even if wind farms agreed to curtail as needed to ensure stable grid energy and wind was being forecast even close, the effective production for each producer would be reduced; in essence just a smaller piece of the pie for each producer.The simple fact is, storage will be needed to provide an artificial load to take up over production and provide reliable load following. If one looks at the over all wind charts throughout the west they will find it blows mostly during off peak times; to fill in the gaps there would have to be so much additional wind production available but the curtailment would be extensive during other times without storage. Wind energy producers don't build expensive projects to provide energy security, they do it for money. If the needed amount of wind was being produced to reach 30% why would PPA's have a clause to pay extra for wind not used? To make this feasible, regulation would have to change dramatically and each producer agree to curtailment without compensation. The Sandia study makes much more sense.
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Carl Levesque

View Carl Levesque's Profile
About: Carl is Editor & Publications Manager at the American Wind Energy Association, where has worked since 2006. At AWEA he oversees AWEA's online and print publicat... more »

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