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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? ×

Is Current Wind Growth Sustainable?

Each issue, Renewable Energy World asks leading players in the industry to give their verdict on a key issue of the moment. This time we asked:

David Appleyard, Associate Editor, Renewable Energy World magazine
April 06, 2010  |  22 Comments

New figures show wind installation continues to break records both in the US and Europe. Is this growth sustainable? If yes, what will continue to drive wind forward? If not, or not at its current rate, which factors might slow the industry's progress?

Roland Chalons-Browne, CEO, Siemens Financial Services

Wind energy is set to maintain its momentum in the wake of growing interest in developing and harnessing alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. As the most widely deployed and commercially used renewable energy source, wind energy offers a large potential with opportunities across the world.

Putting its might behind the sector is China, fast emerging as a supplier of wind energy as well as a key manufacturing base for ancillaries.

The country is expected to take the second spot after the US in terms of total wind power capacity this year. In fact, while the US is expected to witness a decline in financing due to the economic turmoil, Asia is slated to witness the fastest growth in installed wind capacity, to reach 25.5 GW by 2013.

Wind energy continues to gain traction in Europe where it represents 35% of all new energy installations and offers returns on investments between 8%–11%.

Italy, France and the United Kingdom have emerged as new players poised to capitalize on the opportunity in this region.

However, the potential to tap wind energy is still constrained by a few hurdles.

The high costs associated with wind energy – wind farms are not only capital intensive but also have a long gestation period – could prove to be prohibitive for many potential investors.

Volatile commodity prices and the growing trend of wind projects moving farther offshore have compounded these challenges.

More than ever, it takes a reliable financing partner who combines financial and industrial expertise to successfully support sustainable energy projects.

In terms of global policy, governments need to boost investments in onshore and offshore wind generation through the right mix of supportive policies and incentives.

This will help to bring down the high entry costs as well as operating expenses that apply to wind projects.

David Still, managing director, Clipper Windpower Marine Limited

The world needs energy. It is running out of conventional forms and renewable energy is now a real solution, and mandated in many parts of the world.

Fast forward to 2100 and the energy mix will be unrecognizable. We will have changed the habits of the last two centuries in the developed world and growth in less developed countries will need to have followed a route of energy efficiency, smart grids and connections, and an increasing reliance on renewable energy.

There is an ever-increasing requirement for electricity from renewables. The next 20 years will need a focus on providing a grid capable of delivering that electricity, and increasing use of storage to meet the demands of integrating variable energy sources. Wind energy will be a major contributor for the foreseeable future, and the emergence in Europe of offshore wind as a major market will maintain significant growth.

But there are challenges. These include; the financing of projects; the grid in the right place, at the right time and at the right cost; and the need for a strong drive by governments to continue with positive policies to ensure deployment is not delayed.

All of this will maintain a strong market for wind and ensure continued progress.

There is a bright future for wind as part of an energy solution which will start the process of creating a more sustainable world for future generations.

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22 Comments

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jim douglas
jim douglas
February 15, 2011
Try walking around a wind park (No, not driving a fossil fuel or electric vehicle) and you will realize at HUMAN scale that this technology can't work without an outside concentrated energy source like fossil fuels. Look at Cuba (Yes Cuba) which is the only country defined as being sustainable on the planet and you will see that they can't implement wind or solar without outside help (fossil fuels) and what a perfect spot for this technology.
Corrie Block
Corrie Block
November 16, 2010
Right now, infrastructure providers are producing wind towers that can stand at 120 meters, with generators that are 75% smaller than the present standard, producing the same amount of power at 99% mechanical to electrical efficiency. Just imagine what we'll be capable of in another 20 years!
Tomasz Rubanowicz
Tomasz Rubanowicz
April 27, 2010
Costs or lack of them - what does this mean for environmental protection? If a man depends on the life according to nature, it has developed various new technologies for electricity generation. At the same time must come to terms with the various consequences of this type that accompany an investment or project. But new methods of electricity generation are there to protect ourselves and our planet, right? So let us build and develop as much renewable energy sources.
ANONYMOUS
April 19, 2010
The NREL study suggesting 20% wind power for the US by 2030 predicts that capacity additions will peak at 16 GW/year and that that value is also all that will be needed to sustain the 20% value after it is reached. Last year the US installed 10 GW, so if the study is to be believed we will either experience a marked slowdown in the rate of growth of capacity additions in the near future, or we will somehow address the intermittency problems that will arise beyond the 20% of total generation level or we will experience a bubble in the industry.
Steven
Larry Bulloch
Larry Bulloch
April 9, 2010
To the gentleman who commented on the nameplate capacity for Texas wind farms. Below is a quote from a press release from ERCOT issued May 29, 2009:
ERCOT continues to lead the nation with the most installed wind generation capacity at 8,135 MW, according to the summer assessment. For summer peak capacity, ERCOT counts 8.7 percent of wind nameplate capacity as dependable capacity at peak in accordance with ERCOT's stakeholder-adopted methodology.
The statement released by ERCOT comments ONLY on what it views as reliable capacity during summer peak demand, the least windy time of the year in Texas. Let's not imply that all wind farms in Texas produce at 8.7%throughout the year. There's already enough misinformation out there.
Davin Aiken
Davin Aiken
April 8, 2010
The energy balance for wind farms is very good with a return of about 15 times the manufacturing and construction energy input. The grid will adapt and there is great scope for innovation in generation, transmission and demand technologies and commerical arrangements, even moreso when you consider all the renewable technologies and not just wind (maybe like the changes the internet has brought in the last 10 or 15 years).

Wind is not a replacment for baseload but with a mix of technologies and innovation much is possible in reducing the need for fossil fuels.

I don't think the comparsion between the dotcom bubble and the wind industry is very relevant. Market forces have no impact on where or when the wind blows and demand for electricity is still strong.

I think the future for wind is good until we see significant inroads by renewables into the electricity, transport and heat markets, which will take a good few years to achieve. The geographic versility of where wind farms can be developed and its modular nature are still key industry strenghts.
Garth Barker
Garth Barker
April 8, 2010
Wind needs to read the curtailment report, because most wind blows at night it can't be used; dreaming about the day when electric cars will suck up that extra power won't keep all proposed wind sustainable until that point in time. More so the argument concerning storage isn't about its net loss of 14% its about its ability to smooth out the grid thus removing the variability factor of both solar and wind plus its ability to respond to minute by minute demands at the load centers.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
April 7, 2010
Mike, you are just up the road, as we are on Bay Lake a little south of Ruttgers.
Those loan guarantees won't cost the taxpayer anything as nuclear plants are profitable and the loans will be repaid. Minnesota's 3 reactors are gold mines for Excel with total operating costs around 2 cents/kwh.
You may read my energy articles in the Brainerd Dispatch, Duluth News Trib, Echo, etc.
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
April 7, 2010
OK Rolf. But let us deregulate the power industry fairly and let power sources be decided by free markets or at least cost-benefit analysis but certainly not politics. I also oppose Obama giving $55 billion in loan guarantees to nuclear. (BTW, I believe I live down the road from you in Crosslake).
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
April 7, 2010
It is sustainable Mike, with the current mandates and 2.1 cent/kwh hour subsidy which is nearing $1.5 billion/yr. If you gave that to nuclear it would be at $17 billion, indicating the relative amount of power generate by the two sources. If you halted it for wind, the wind business would be as quiet as those turbines on hot summer days when there isn't a "breath of air" and grid demand is at its peak.
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
April 7, 2010
I don't see why windpower's current growth would not be sustainable from its current still low percentage of electricity markets. Simply keep mandating it over all other forms of energy and back it up with natural gas. The question should be is this economical and no government is doing prudent cost-benefit to find out for the public good.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
April 7, 2010
Texas has good winds and 3 times the name plate wind of any state. In 2009, ERCOT reports Texas wind farms had an 8.7% capacity factor and produced 1%(repeat one percent) of Texas 72,000 MW summer wind requirement. There is no effective massive bulk storage for wind's excess. That's why it is a supplement, not a substitute, for base load power.
Martin van der Jagt
Martin van der Jagt
April 7, 2010
I am still not sure about the energy used by the backup power! A director of Electrabel once stated on television, that in a special year all the energy produced by their windturbines was compensated by the fuel for the backup powerstations (mean load of the turbines in that year 14%).
Garth Barker
Garth Barker
April 7, 2010
In answer to the article's question yes if massive bulk storage is available. See symbioticsenergy.com and follow the links to our storage projects.
Garth Barker
Garth Barker
April 7, 2010
PatGill

I also work for a company in the process of licensing pumped hydro storage but because of the environmental concerns connected with the aquatic resource we have designed what we termed CLPS or closed loop pumped storage. We build two reservoirs and replenish for evaporation when needed. Because the wind here in the western US blows mostly at night this is the best storage possible. It should be welcomed with open arms by the wind folks but they remain in denial for the most part. We should be filing for FERC licensing later this year. We have sited 10 such projects located near major transmission sources in relatively environmentally benign locations.
David Appleyard
David Appleyard
April 7, 2010
You raise a valid point, Joel, but the point of this type of article is to open the debate rather than to limit the discourse to those with an obvious stake in the success of the industry.

Though evidently those with an intimate knowledge of the business are more likely to hold an opinion, we nonetheless invite and welcome any response to the same question - from those with a less favourable view too.
Joel Fairstein
Joel Fairstein
April 7, 2010
The article title, "Is current wind growth sustainable" is troublesome on two counts. First, it should be obvious to anyone with cursory knowledge of our energy situation that we've harnessed only a small portion of the potential wind resource. Second, the word "sustainable" in its contextual usage has to do with whether an energy source sustains the health of the planet. A better formulation would have been, "Will the growth rate of wind energy be maintained?" In this translation, it still strikes me as a naive question and is a magnet for platitudinous responses.
rolf westgard
rolf westgard
April 7, 2010
Take away the mandates and subsidies and see what happens to this erratic power source.
Pat Gill
Pat Gill
April 6, 2010
I am a member of the Spirit of Ireland iniative, www.spiritofireland.org
The basic idea of our project is to effectively marry renewables with seawater pumped storage, in order to create a dispatchable on demand natural energy power staion.

Ireland is blessed with enormous wind and ocean energy resource's and is also fortunate in having u shaped glacial valleys close to the atlantic coast. By using the ocean as the lower reservoir and building a dam across the mouth of one of these valleys we will create an extremely cost efficient pumped hydro storage facility with a capacity of 100GW/hrs.

By using the output of large scale windfarms and later wave farms to pump seawater into our valley/HSR, we can create conventionally despatchable electricity with no intermittantcy.

A natural energy power station.

We are now into the permitting process for our first project, with a rated output of 1GW.
Aaron Moline
Aaron Moline
April 6, 2010
Renewable are a proven means to lessen our societies need on traditional fuels. Although there is much excitement over the new advances in energy creation, the reality of it is we are not going to get away from fossil fuels anytime soon. Renewables make only a fraction of our energy mix in the United States. Even if we continue to invest at the same rate we are, we will be lucky to install 20% of our capacity in renewable sources. Whether we like it or not, oil and gas are here to stay for awhile. What is more important, however, is how we use these resources. For so long we have used fossil fuels literally as "free energy". This is not the case anymore. We must strive to break this habit by promoting more fuel standards and efficiency, as well as aggressively investing in renewables.
Want to learn more about balanced energy for America? Visit www.consumerenergyalliance.org to get involved, discover CEA's mission and sign up for our informative newsletter.
Stephen Lacey
Stephen Lacey
April 6, 2010
I would assume the author and the gentleman from Seimens mean 25.5 GW per year by 2013. That's an incredible number, but it certainly seems doable.
Mortimer Shnerdlyfrump
Mortimer Shnerdlyfrump
April 6, 2010
The article states, "Asia is slated to witness the fastest growth in installed wind capacity, to reach 25.5 GW by 2013." It would be depressing if this were true. Already today, China has exceeded the 25.5GW installed wind capacity, and China is only part of Asia. For the above statement to be true, Asia would have to start taking down windmills rather than adding new ones.

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David Appleyard

David Appleyard

David Appleyard is Chief Editor of Renewable Energy World. He also currently holds the position of Chief Editor for sister publication Hydro Review Worldwide. A journalist and photographer, he graduated with a degree in Applied Environmental...
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