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Fight Climate Change Fast

Changing our energy system doesn't have to occur at a glacial pace.

Sean Casten, Recycled Energy Development
August 24, 2009  |  12 Comments

The U.S. House of Representatives has finally passed climate change legislation, but the national debate on this issue continues to be based on a false assumption: that any major reforms will inevitably take decades to make a serious dent in greenhouse gas pollution.

To wit, the new legislation advanced by Edward Markey (D-MA) and Henry Waxman (D-CA) envisions a time frame of more than a decade to achieve just a 17% reduction in our country’s greenhouse gas emissions — far below what climate scientists say is necessary. And many critics say even this modest target is too ambitious.

Sure, scattered voices say we can achieve change at a faster clip. Al Gore, for instance, seeks a lightning-quick ramp-up of renewable energy. But most decision makers on Capitol Hill have dismissed such goals as fantasy, at least for the time being.

But who’s really living in fantasyland? Historically speaking, our nation has undertaken numerous reforms of our energy system that have spurred dramatic and rapid change.

Consider the 1992 Energy Policy Act. Before this bill passed, only a limited number of players — mostly regulated electric utilities that enjoyed guaranteed profits — had the right to sell power. Entrepreneurs with innovative, efficient ways of generating electricity were legally shut out. Not surprisingly, then, hardly any such entrepreneurs emerged.

The Energy Policy Act reformed this closed system, allowing more companies to sell power. And the results were staggering. The bill took a few years to go into full effect because of a spate of lawsuits from those who feared competition, but by 1998, the federal government and courts had ruled in favor of competition. The market exploded.

Within 10 years, unregulated entrepreneurs built nearly 200 gigawatts of power capacity, twice that of all the nation’s nuclear reactors. Having taken utilities a century to build our electric grid, independent generators took just one decade to increase it by a quarter — and that after a modest regulatory change. Simply remarkable.

New England regulators recently fostered even faster change in the energy market. ISO New England — which helps ensure the availability of electricity in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — decided about two years ago to allow entrepreneurs to get paid for decreasing production during peak hours, like on a hot summer day when the energy system is under great strain. Such a program had been in effect previously for big utilities, but now, smaller players were allowed to get in the game.

Already, small power producers in New England have brought forth nearly three gigawatts of energy savings, the equivalent output of three nuclear reactors. With a small change in incentives that opened the market to competition, the energy system quickly began operating a lot more efficiently. And we’ll doubtless see even more of an impact in the years to come.

In both of these examples — neither of which, incidentally, burdened taxpayers — energy companies showed how adaptable they are. If the rules change, they’ll change, too. They might not be looking forward to it. But they’ll do it. That’s how the system works.

So it’s strange that our climate debate remains mired in a swamp of diminished expectations. Policymakers seem to think they have to treat energy companies with kid gloves — as if demanding big changes will somehow be too much for them to bear and result in a devastating blow to our economy. But this view simply doesn’t square with history. With even minor reforms, enormous changes can occur.

Just imagine what could happen if we had the guts to face up to the challenge at hand and passed some bold legislation to fight climate change. We just might change the way our nation makes power.

Sean Casten is the president and CEO of Recycled Energy Development.

12 Comments

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Miggs Athon
Miggs Athon
August 31, 2009
Panthael, there are indeed some proposals out there (not in bill form) to fight climate change without raising energy prices. See the Recycled Energy Development website, for instance, to find a few.

MikeHolly, Sean actually wrote on this issue more in-depth for Grist: http://www.grist.org/article/2009-07-01-how-fast-us-electric-sector
Steven Woodcock
Steven Woodcock
August 29, 2009
While your enthusiasm is laudable I'm afraid your idea isn't very practical.

There's frankly very little reason to embark on any type of huge program to build wind or solar--not because they're not good ideas (they are EXCELLENT ideas) but because this is a thing better done with more deliberation and focus. Your own article provides an excellent example of this with the New England experience...this was a focused, planned, deliberate expansion that solved many problems in its execution. Better to roll out solar and wind more gradually across the nation, encourage local incentives for adding these resources rather than federal, and demonstrate by example rather than legislate via edict.

Wind and solar are both very useful adjuncts to an overall energy policy, but they are only part of a solution.

And let's not even get STARTED on the myth of global warming--let's just agree to install solar and wind because they're a good idea whatever your motivations. That way lies only resistance and lack of acceptance.
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
August 27, 2009
Steven, studies demonstrating the effect of windpower's variability on peaking power are more than interesting, but necessary, to see just how useful this energy source is. Until, then, the US should not be mandating the addition of 97% windpower for renewable mandates. I will continue to cite the only detailed study I know about that attempts to find the added costs of windpower and greenhouse gases saved. Unless you can provide another study that is better.
ANONYMOUS
August 27, 2009
Mike,
The Power Engineering article you cite relies on an analysis of Lang that assumes wind would be backed up at a 100% level by open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) and that this will shift usage away from more efficient combined cycle gas turbines. This is a highly dubious assumption. The incremental amount of peaking power needed when wind power is added to the system is certainly not equal to the total wind capacity. In particular, because demand is variable adding variable generation such as wind to the grid leads to an increase in the variability of peaking power demand that is significantly less than the variability of the added generation (two uncorrelated random sources of fluctuation partially cancel). Furthermore, wind power from many turbines distributed over a wide range of locations is less variable than the power from a single location so a significant portion of wind generation can be used to replace base load power. Additionally, in many locations sufficient hydro power exists that this can be used for peaking power needs instead of natural gas (China, India, Canada, etc. all get a significant fraction of their power from hydroelectricity as do some parts of the US that are adding lots of wind power, such as WA state).

The DOE study calling for 20% wind energy predicts that this level of wind would lead to significantly lower usage of natural gas and coal, contrary to Lang's prediction.

In short, wind is not nearly as useless as this article suggests, although a more careful study of the effect of variability on peaking power demand would be interesting.
Steven
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
August 26, 2009
July 2009
Power Engineering
Thomas Hewson and David Pressman
"Calculating Wind Power's Environmental Benefits"
ANONYMOUS
August 26, 2009
Mike:
Which article specifically are you referring to in the July 2009 Power Engineering issue?
Steven
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
August 26, 2009
I agree the US can address climate change and many other economic and societal problems by promoting competition in electricity markets from base-load renewable sources like small-hydro, geothermal and biomass. The US must fix at least six unfair advantages given to old coal and nuclear plants: (1) stranded cost subsidies (2) grandfather exemptions from environmental laws, (3) market power, (4) a preferential transmission grid, (5) preferential transmission access and (6) the dumping of surplus power from regulated states.

There are currently no attempts to do that in the corrupt US. Low-cost base-load renewables are blocked. The environment is ignored. Consumers are ripped off (what did California lose from incompetent deregulation, something like $40 billion???).
Mike Holly
Mike Holly
August 26, 2009
While I agree the US should be moving toward more competition, this article is sadly short on the facts. Here it is: "Within 10 years, unregulated entrepreneurs built nearly 200 gigawatts of power" (from 1998 to 2008 as a result of the 1992 Energy Policy Act).

What is the year by year breakdown? What are the fuel and power sources? What are the capacity factors? What part of the country have these addition occurred? Was the 1992 Energy Policy Act really responsible for these additions? Or was it state retail deregulation? Or was it state renewable mandates? Are deregulated utility spinoffs counted as entrepreneurs? Have any of these policies really promoted competition? How do these capacity additions compare to PURPA before 1992? What is the author suggesting for future policy to promote competition and address climate change?

Basically, the US is adding only natural gas and windpower.

The independent power industry overbuilt the capacity of natural gas peaking units after deregualtion in the late 1990s. This was pretty much a financial disaster. There was really not much competition for base-load power. Since capacity factors are low, the capacity is really overstating total generation. Reliance on this one fuel source is risking the nation's energy future.

The other major fuel source has been windpower, but that was actually accomplished through renewable mandates, not competition. This has also been a financial and environmental disaster. The July 2009 issue of Power Engineering demonstrates that windpower increases generation costs by more than twice while reducing greenhouse gases by a mere 11 percent (because it must be inefficiently backed up by natural gas). Since capacity factors must be low for wind, citing capacity again overstates total generation.
paul tousignant
paul tousignant
August 26, 2009
"... far below what climate scientists say is necessary."

The trouble here, and with the vast majority of the climate change "Chicken Littles" is that the opposing views by equally qualified climate scientists are ignored in the debate.

"Climate change" is still a theory, one based on flawed data and assumptions. The affect of changes in the sun, the natural cycles of the suns activity, is omitted in most studies promoted by the climate change theory supporters. This is an injustice to the scientific world and the general population.

Yes, I agree that pollution needs to be reduced, but I also don't buy the argument that CO2 is a pollutant. I believe that we need to shift to renewable energy sources due to the expense and pollution of fossil fuels, but it can and must be done reasonably, globally and economically.

Waxman-Markey does not do that - it puts too much of the burden on the US and will actually increase worldwide production of pollution and so-called greenhouse gasses. We are smarter than Waxman-Markey and owe it to ourselves and future generations to stop this knee-jerk reaction legislation and get it right.
ANONYMOUS
August 26, 2009
What  is the Massachusetts Wind Energy Siting Reform Act ?

The state of Massachusetts through the Wind Energy Siting Reform Act  is about to set standards for responsible development of land-based commercial wind turbines. The current standards for setbacks are the least protective in the world.

Massachusetts, through the new legislation, chooses to redefine property rights through the Wind Energy Siting Reform Act.

The Wind Energy Siting Reform Act will transfer power from towns, legislators, and the courts to the executive branch, giving the governor and his successors unprecedented power to determine the future landscape and economy of every community. This is similar to the 40B housing laws .

The Wind Energy Siting Reform Act is an assault on our rights.

The beneficiaries of the Massachusetts Wind Energy Siting Reform Act  are likely to be those citizens with disproportionate influence and power in the political process, including large corporations and development firms.
Matthew Tripoli
Matthew Tripoli
August 25, 2009
"In both of these examples — neither of which, incidentally, burdened taxpayers — energy companies showed how adaptable they are."

I agree that most of the arguments for taking baby-steps are likely short-sighted. However, isn't any climate change legislation predicated on either subsidizing new forms of cleaner generation, or on raising the costs of existing fossil fuel generation through taxes/permits/etc. so that renewables come closer to grid parity? I don't think you're comparing apples to apples, if you want to include the tax argument (I personally think some form of tax is necessary).

I also believe that in most cases ratepayers pay the costs of creating and incentivizing demand management programs. The marketing, billing and accounting, and metering for such programs aren't free. This is most likely a cheaper alternative than building new power plants. However, I think it's dangerous to say these programs have no cost. We shouldn't make that mistake for the "smart grid" projects rolling out in the near future.

Also, utilities may have taken a century to build-out all the expanses of our nation's rural electrification system. Building cookie-cutter peaking power plants over the course of ten years isn't quite the same thing.
Miggs Athon
Miggs Athon
August 24, 2009
Great post, Sean. There really is an awful lot of potential out there, particularly in the area of waste energy recovery and combined heat & power. Some modest reforms there could do much to boost our economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

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