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Changing Climate: Carbon Tax Gaining Momentum over Cap-and-Trade?

Ron Pernick
May 19, 2009  |  16 Comments

I recently gave a talk to a group of environmentalists, technologists, and business people at an innovation forum in Portland, Oregon. In my talk, I relayed the findings of our recent Carbon Free Prosperity report, where we provide a ten-point action plan for Oregon and Washington to move toward carbon-free prosperity. Our number one item: "Put a Price on Carbon."

After my talk, everyone broke up into brainstorming teams to review the report’s findings and provide thoughts/insights/ideas. I sat down with one of the groups and listened in. Of the nine other people at the table, not a single one supported the implementation of a carbon cap-and-trade regime.

Hold on. How could this be? I’m at a conference dedicated to clean-energy innovation, attended by many environmentalists, technologists and business entrepreneurs, in one of our nation’s greenest cities — and no one in my group was voicing support for carbon cap-and-trade. As someone who favors a carbon tax approach over cap-and-trade, my interest was piqued. So I went around the table and asked everyone to explain why they didn’t favor cap-and-trade.

The number one response: Cap-and-trade could too easily be manipulated or gamed. In an age of global financial turmoil, much of it brought on by dubious financial creations such as credit default swaps and subprime mortgage derivatives, these folks didn’t trust the market makers (or regulators) to properly manage the process. They weren’t buying the argument that financial trading markets are always elegant and efficient. Instead, they see cap-and-trade as being rife with potential mismanagement and corruption. Equally important, they didn’t believe that a cap-and-trade system could be transparent or open enough to guarantee critical safeguards and to provide a fair and accurate pricing mechanism.

And herein lies the big “hairy” problem for proponents of cap-and-trade. If people can’t easily understand or trust something, they aren’t likely to buy into it. That’s been one of my chief complaints against carbon cap-and-trade.  It’s simply too complicated for most people, even many experts, to understand.

That’s why I prefer a carbon tax — it’s transparent and simple.  And I’m hardly alone. Democrat Al Gore, who put climate change on the social and political map with his book and movie “An Inconvenient Truth,” was an early proponent for a carbon tax. “Democrat turned Republican turned independent” New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has called for a tax instead of cap-and-trade. Others on both sides of the political spectrum and in between who have voiced support for a carbon tax include New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman; South Carolina Republican Congressman Bob Inglis; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James Hansen; Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson; and economist  Jeffrey Sachs.

I have good friends who are ardent supporters of cap-and-trade — and they probably won’t like this column. But here’s the rub — in private many of them will admit that in an ideal world a carbon tax would be an easier, efficient and more streamlined mechanism. They just don’t believe it’s politically viable, whereas they think cap and trade is. So they support cap and trade not because it’s better but because they view it as possible.

I was speaking recently with Gregg Small, executive director of non-profit Climate Solutions (our partner in the Carbon Free Prosperity report). He stressed something to me in our conversation that I found very interesting. “Even though we prefer cap and trade, the issue that we’re talking about most is the need for an enforceable cap on emissions. We’re open to many different mechanisms for making the cap work as long as it is fair, well-designed, and achieves the desired emission reductions.”

He’s absolutely right on that point. Setting caps is a great way to guarantee that governments and industries meet critical greenhouse gas reduction goals. Part of the issue of the carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade debate is that it obscures a critical point. You can have a tax and a cap — they’re not mutually exclusive. Connecticut Rep. John B. Larson, chair of the House Democratic Caucus, has introduced a bill that could provide both. The bill, as currently written, would require an annual carbon reduction target (based on meeting an 80 percent reduction from 2005 carbon emission levels by 2050) and a price on carbon to help achieve the reduction targets. The bill proposes starting with a price on carbon of $15/ton, and increases annually at varying rates, depending on if emission reduction targets are met or not.

At the end of the day, I think we need three things in any effective carbon policy: 1) A stable and increasing price on carbon that will account for fossil fuel-based externalities in a transparent and simple way; 2) a cap on emissions that meets critical reduction targets;  and 3) a distribution of the tax revenues that reduces other taxes (keeping the plan near revenue-neutral) and distributes a small portion of the revenues (I’d recommend around $15 billion a year for a decade) to clean-tech development and deployment. By making sure a portion of these dollars is spent on technology build out, we can help keep America at the forefront of the emerging global clean-tech economy.

As more and more people speak out in favor of a carbon tax, and momentum builds, I think that a carbon tax could be just as much a political reality as cap-and-trade.  The Obama team is clearly serious about advancing clean energy, low-carbon transportation, conservation/efficiency, green buildings, and the smart grid. But as we move forward — I hope the Administration, House, and Senate take another look at the policy toolkit — and don’t dismiss or abandon the concept of a carbon tax. A price on carbon is the signal that will ultimately guarantee a true shift in our economy away from polluting and extractive industries to low carbon, renewable ones. Let’s be sure to design a carbon pricing system that’s fair; that will result in real and measurable greenhouse gas emission reductions; that can be explained readily and easily; and that is transparent to all stakeholders. The way to do that, I believe, is a carbon tax with a set emissions cap.

Ron Pernick is cofounder and managing director of Clean Edge, Inc.; coauthor of The Clean Tech Revolution; and sustainability fellow at Portland State University's School of Business.

Related Links

  • Clean Edge's Report: Carbon Free Prosperity 2025

16 Comments

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Thomas Garven
Thomas Garven
May 28, 2009
To Mr. James Stack:

The simple answer to your $1/gallon question is this - there is no difference and you really answered your own question in the previous post by stating:

"Have you ever seen the U.S. tax code? In theory, a carbon tax would make the polluters (i.e. consumers of dirty fossil energy) pay for their pollution. But in reality, a carbon tax that could be passed by the U.S. Congress would be so riddled with loopholes and exemptions that in the end it wouldn't end up being any more fair or simple than a cap-and-trade scheme.".

That's one reason I like a gas tax since it's straight forward, easily verifiable, does not depend on government intervention, AND is focused only on gasoline and not diesel used for trucking, shipping, or farming. So why is this important? Food prices would increase but only slightly. Also with the new CAFE [mpg] standards going into affect the long term affects would be minimal. Assuming average people drive 12,000 miles per year with an increase of $1/gallon would only cost about $480.00/year which is FAR less than any other carbon tax plan I have heard of.

Also increasing the gas tax would discourage driving but not prevent anyone from driving as far as they want. Maybe we could all learn to be a little more conservative. Also a carbon tax is a much broader tax affecting almost everything we use energy for.

The only bad part of this whole idea is that a gas tax focused on providing funding of renewable energy project will NEVER happen. There are too many politicians and individuals who hold carbon credits who stand to get very wealthy when a carbon tax and/or credit program is implemented. It's still nice to have a fantasy :-)

tomgarven@hotmail.com
James Stack
James Stack
May 27, 2009
Thomas Garven,

Please explain something for me: In what way is a $1 federal excise tax on gasoline *any* different than a carbon tax?

Answer: It's not! A federal gas tax is exactly the same thing as a carbon tax -- but one where you're simply targeting one particular industry. (For what purpose I'm not clear on.)
James Stack
James Stack
May 27, 2009
"Cap-and-trade could too easily be manipulated or gamed."

And a carbon tax could not?

I'm 100% in favor of putting a price on carbon, but there's nothing "transparent" or "simple" about a carbon tax. Have you ever seen the U.S. tax code? In theory, a carbon tax would make the polluters (i.e. consumers of dirty fossil energy) pay for their pollution. But in reality, a carbon tax that could be passed by the U.S. Congress would be so riddled with loopholes and exemptions that in the end it wouldn't end up being any more fair or simple than a cap-and-trade scheme.
Thomas Garven
Thomas Garven
May 22, 2009
Here is some further reading on the subject of Cap and Trade both pro and con.

http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC_Rpt146.pdf

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/04/03/03climatewire-capandtrade-advocates-press-on-after-budget-10428.html

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/capandtrade101.html

http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/26/39/11.php

http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA570.html

Here are a few quotes from three studies of what it will mean to you and me.

"The Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change projects that, if Lieberman-Warner becomes law, in 2015 gasoline prices would increase 29 percent, electricity prices would jump 55 percent, and natural gas prices would be pushed up 15 percent. The MIT study, titled an "Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals," is based on 2005 baseline energy prices and accounts for subsidies for carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as 15 percent of emissions covered by the trading mechanism.6

An assessment by the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University estimates that in 2015 gasoline prices would cost up to six percent more, electricity would be roughly 18 percent more expensive and natural gas prices would increase about 15 percent.7 Moreover, the study projects economy-wide GDP losses of $75 billion in 2015 and $245 billion in 2030.8 The 2007 study, "The Lieberman-Warner America's Climate Security Act: A Preliminary Assessment of Potential Economic Impacts," considers credit trading as well as domestic offsets in its projections.

Finally, the Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis projects that Lieberman-Warner would cripple the future economic health of the United States. GDP losses are estimated to be between $45.7 billion and nearly $170 billion in 2015 (2000 dollars)9 - totaling as much as $4.8 trillion of lost GDP by 2030..."
Phil Manke
Phil Manke
May 21, 2009
Cap and trade could replace the sales tax as an incentive to acceptance and to be less disruptive to commerce while changing to less polluting goods and services.
The trade portion must include payments or FIT's to anyone using current sunshine and wind (which also is current sunshine) for energy production, be it electricity or replacing BTU's of heating energy. If the owners, large and small, were receiving a stipend for their solar energy production the equipment installations would be an asset for the earlyiest installers, especially if the rates for carbon use were phased in as the rates for solar use were at first high, then decreased as fuller implementation was achieved. This makes solar use a real economic positive for all, and even the economically disadvantaged could be encouraged with creative finance plans for installing and a payment were granted in the commencment. Being poor dose not mean being stupid, but too often seems to because many of the poor have no representation.
It is easy enough to meter systems for determining output, thermal and electric.
Cap and Trade is the fair way to go and only if the trade part includes fair payments for carbon free energy production for anyone, not just the UTE's and large corps. Then, no one can complain because they can merely convert to solar and get on the gravy train to pollution free energy, which is the real goal in all of this.
Demetri Wagner
Demetri Wagner
May 20, 2009
Get real everyone and wake up! The US is the only country to not be part of Cap&Trade. So let's quite whinning aned get on with it! The EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan ande even China and India are getting ready to join. What is so hard to understand about Cap&Trade?? As long as everyone measures carbon the same way we have a level playing feild.

A Carbon Tax puts the money in the hands of the government, not the carbon market. Talk about trust, if the government gets its hands on the billions generated by a carbon tax-kiss it goodby, they'll sure as heck find a way to use it somewhere else and NOT for intended purpose!
Thomas Garven
Thomas Garven
May 20, 2009
I usually try to be positive when I write something and normally suggest some type of alternative to just complaining, so here is an idea I think might have some merit. Notice I did not say it was a good idea or the best idea – just an idea ;-)

If you really want to go green then challenge your current legislator to present a bill in Congress to raise the Federal gas tax $1.00 per gallon and kill any kind of Cap and Trade or Carbon Tax.

One provision of the bill would be that the federal government would only get to keep 10% of the money to administer the program and the other 90% would be used exclusively for SHOVEL READY green energy projects.

A. Ninety percent (90%) of every dollar collected could be channeled to fund energy independence for our country. That's about $123 billion dollars a year to fast track the renewable energy initiatives that currently seem to be an important part of the Presidents agenda [see note 1 below]. If we spent that much every year we wouldn't need Cap and Trade or for that matter a Carbon Tax either.

B. Using wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, nuclear etc. will in fact be far more effective in reducing our carbon output than a cap and trade or carbon tax. In just 10 years we could reduce our carbon foot print to a level that would make the United States a world leader in carbon reduction. OH AND DID I MENTION JOB CREATION!

C. A gasoline tax would be far more palatable to the general public than a punitive tax that punishes people like Cap and Trade and raises everyone's energy cost. I wished I could take credit for this idea but it isn't mine and it isn't new. It was well documented long ago by someone many people admire namely Lee Iaccoca. He thought we should have increased gasoline taxes way back in the 80's by $.25/gallon.

tomgarven@hotmail.com [put renewable energy in subject line]

Note 1: Finished Motor Gasoline, 2008 - 3,280,964,000 barrels x 42 gal./barrel = 137,800,488,000 gallons or dollars/yr.
Christina Nelson
Christina Nelson
May 20, 2009
Are you telling me that they want to put the carbon tax on me--- Oh no, no, no- if anyone gets a carbon tax it is industry. Forget Cap and Trade and a Carbon tax and just simply enforce the existing "Clean Air Act". When considering burning coal- there is a lot more to it than carbon: SULFERIC ACID, NITRIC ACID and heavy metals- esp. MURCURY.
Thomas Garven
Thomas Garven
May 20, 2009
Anonymous posted this : May 20, 2009
Never did you explain the underlying reason why we need a carbon tax. Can some one explain that?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have to agree with the Anonymous poster. Someone please tell me why we need Cap and Trade and/or a Carbon Tax. If the purpose is to reduce carbon output then please tell me how a Cap and Trade and/or Carbon Tax which creates nothing but paper is going to affect the output of carbon.

Does anyone else see the craziness in this plan. If a coal fired plant pays $5 million a year in a carbon taxes what good does that do if the plant continues to run? Oh and did I mention that this $5 million in extra cost will be passed on to you and me the consumer. How much do you think your electric bill is going to go up?

DO WE REALLY NEED ANOTHER HIT TO OUR ECONOMY AT THIS TIME?
Paul Johnson
Paul Johnson
May 20, 2009
The tax would be preferred especially if coupled with an offset in something like the income tax.

This would help to discourage consumption, and encourage labor.
ANONYMOUS
May 20, 2009
The article's point # "(3) a distribution of the tax revenues that reduces other taxes (keeping the plan near revenue-neutral) and distributes a small portion of the revenues (I'd recommend around $15 billion a year for a decade) to clean-tech development and deployment." has never been clearly explained.

My fear is that this tax will be an increase in overall tax revenue for general government useage and not revenue-neutral. $15 billion a year for clean-tech is monies not currently in regular on-going federal expenditures so that is either a general increase in taxation levels or some other program has to be cut. TNSTAAFL.
Thomas Garven
Thomas Garven
May 20, 2009
I do not support Cap and Trade or a Carbon Tax since capping carbon and trading credits does not create anything. The cap and trade or carbon tax concept is flawed for the following reasons.
1. Cap and trade or a carbon tax do not create wealth or help the American people in any way. In fact it robs the people of needed funds by increasing the cost of energy at a time when we should be doing exactly the opposite.
2. Cap and trade and a carbon tax are perceived by the public as just another tax to help create a bigger government or to line the pockets of a few individuals or corporations. Can you guess who holds a whole bunch of carbon credits?.
3. Cap and trade and a carbon tax do nothing to create a larger workforce who pay taxes but does the exact opposite by removing needed capital from the private investment sector.
4. Cap and trade or a carbon tax are not products - you can't eat them, the public can't spend or save it, you can't drive it or plant it in the ground and watch them grow.

And if we are really serious about reducing carbon output, lets just stop fiddling around and get on with building 20,000 wind turbines and covering about 80% of all root tops with photovoltaic panels. If we did that we wouldn't need cap and trade or a carbon tax since we would be the world leaders in the reduction of carbon output.

In my not so humble opinion we should all be encouraging the rapid deployment of renewable energy systems to eliminate the need for this negative form of taxation.

tomgarven@hotmail.com [put renewable energy in subject line]
Alasdair Cameron
Alasdair Cameron
May 20, 2009
A carbon tax would effectively be like VAT on goods, and as such is an inherently consumption-linked tax.. An increased carbon tax could be offset by a reduced income tax or national insurance for all.. this would then be an added incentive to consume less, as that would increase one's overall wealth by maximising the amount of the income tax reduction you got to keep... (thinking of the UK here, I don't now too much about US taxes)..

I think it important though that the money raised be ring-fenced for clean energy and energy related infrastructure though.. to aid public acceptablitilty.
Matthew Tripoli
Matthew Tripoli
May 20, 2009
How do you make poor people exempt from a carbon tax? The manufacture of all goods and resources will be impacted by placing a price on carbon. That means the price of staples like food and clothing will go up affecting poor people.
Individuals are not likely to be paying a carbon tax themselves directly, they're likely to have the cost passed onto them through goods and services.

I guess you could give people below a certain level of income a rebate to help them deal with the costs. However, I wouldn't call this making them exempt from a carbon tax.

Also, a carbon tax puts renewables on an even playing field with fossil power sources. I don't see the need for additional exemptions for renewables. Fossil plants do require maintenance and have to be replaced. The cost of maintenance at and building new fossil plants will be equally affected over time by a carbon tax as the same costs at renewable facilities. Why complicate things more with chaotic tax credits and exemptions for renewables?
sol Shapiro
sol Shapiro
May 20, 2009
I strongly support tax versus cap and trade. I also agree that - in the electricity generation sector, the cap will work because there are technologies which can replace fossil having capacity and storage capability.
But I'm afraid that in the transportation sector, unless or until batteries meet economic, technical and reliability required and can be built in the capacity needed; or we have a breakthrough in renewable liquid fuel meeting economics and capacity, we possibly should go with tax and no cap. My plan is to truly do all - drill, use coal-to-liquid and all the biomass we can make along with funding development of batteries, biofuels and other advanced transportation fuels. Put a 10 year plan in place based on the above and watch for invention - at which time cap can be instituted. AND in the meantime we will need GEOENGINEERING to put a hold on climate change. Discussion appreciated Somarl@msn.com
ANONYMOUS
May 20, 2009
Never did you explain the underlying reason why we need a carbon tax. Can some one explain that?

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Ron Pernick

Ron Pernick

Ron Pernick, co-founder and principal of Clean Edge and co-author of The Clean Tech Revolution, is an accomplished market research, publishing, and business development entrepreneur with two decades of high-tech experience. At Clean Edge...
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